Percentage Line?

[kfay]

[hv=d=n&v=n&n=skqxh10xdkqxckxxxx&s=sajhkxxxdxxxca109x]133|200|Scoring: IMP

1♣-(1♥)-2NT-(P)

3NT All Pass[/hv]

 

LHO leads ♥QJ and RHO overtakes and plays a 3rd. You win and lefty shows out.

 

Who do you play for the stiff honor?

[655321]

Assuming that the club x's are indeed x's and not the 8, you can't afford to test the spades, looking for more information about the distribution.

Therefore, all you have to go on is that hearts are 5-2, so naturally you play the 5 card heart suit to hold a singleton club honor, or clubs 2-2.

 

This is so obvious that I am guessing it didn't work on the actual hand. :rolleyes:

[ASkolnick]

I am playing the overcaller for the stiff club honor, but I am sure it is the other way since the question was posed.

[pclayton]

I can afford to test the spades. If I choose to play LHO (non-overcaller) for the club stiff, all I need to do is unblock the ♣9 under the K, finesse, cash the Ace and overtake with dummy's spot. This assume dummy's highest spot beats our lowest. If I choose to play RHO for the club stiff, ♣A, 10, etc..

 

If spades are 6-2, RHO is 2=5=?=? and LHO is 6=2=?=? and I will play RHO for the length. If RHO follows to 3 spades, I'll play clubs 'normally'.

[ceeb]

If RHO makes non-vulnerable overcalls based on the (quite correct) criterion that it's fun to bid then obviously finesse through LHO.

 

However it may be argued that there is much more point to overcalling when short in spades. Some hands with short clubs are good for a delayed t.o. double, or better suited to continuing, should partner (meaning LHO) bid spades, having initially passed. I hate trying to read overcaller's mind, but perhaps better players can comment. Anyway, assuming you buy this idea ...

 

If RHO is known to have exactly a ♠xx it is a tossup which way to play clubs assuming you mark RHO with the ♦A.

 

If you can convince yourself that the ♥ overcaller has on expectation 2 or fewer spades, cash the ♣K (and unblock). If LHO drops an honor, test the spades to gain a tiny edge. If and only if RHO has 3 or more spades, play the clubs to be 2-2.

 

Charles

[MarkDean]

I do not take the 5-2 hearts to be as much of a clue as others do. If the opps had the exact same shapes, but LHO had RHO points, RHO would have passed over 1C, and LHO would have lead his long suit (likely 5 cards as well, unless 4243 or 4 clubs), and we would be tempted to play clubs the other way.

 

While it will probably just involve no new information, and a possible 3 IMP loss, I agree with testing spades.

 

What did LHO pitch on the third heart?

[jdonn]

I certainly test spades, and unless something happens there I certainly play ace of clubs first. Is this a trick question?

[Lobowolf]

I do not take the 5-2 hearts to be as much of a clue as others do. If the opps had the exact same shapes, but LHO had RHO points, RHO would have passed over 1C, and LHO would have lead his long suit (likely 5 cards as well, unless 4243 or 4 clubs), and we would be tempted to play clubs the other way.

 

While it will probably just involve no new information, and a possible 3 IMP loss, I agree with testing spades.

 

What did LHO pitch on the third heart?

Isn't the a priori "longest suit" expectation something like 4.5 cards in length, in which case the 5-2 break is still disproportionately long for RHO? Having said that, I'm wondering if the point of the problem isn't partly whether you'd disregard restricted choice implications (which would probably cause you to finesse into the heart length) in favor of picking up the 2-2 club splits AND being safe when LHO has the ♦A.

 

If that's in play at all, my answer would be no; the opponents have enough of a paucity (if that's not an oxymoron) of high cards that I assume the double shot isn't particularly valuable. I expect to go down if I mess the clubs up, so I'm not going to buck any restricted choice implications.

 

That being the case, I'll go along with testing the spades and going along with Phil's proposal.

 

In the "Why was this question posed?" pool, I'll go with neither 3-1 split, but instead, ♣QJ tight on my right, and ♦A on my left.

[MarkDean]

I do not take the 5-2 hearts to be as much of a clue as others do.  If the opps had the exact same shapes, but LHO had RHO points, RHO would have passed over 1C, and LHO would have lead his long suit (likely 5 cards as well, unless 4243 or 4 clubs), and we would be tempted to play clubs the other way. 

 

While it will probably just involve no new information, and a possible 3 IMP loss, I agree with testing spades. 

 

What did LHO pitch on the third heart?

Isn't the a priori "longest suit" expectation something like 4.5 cards in length, in which case the 5-2 break is still disproportionately long for RHO? Having said that, I'm wondering if the point of the problem isn't partly whether you'd disregard restricted choice implications (which would probably cause you to finesse into the heart length) in favor of picking up the 2-2 club splits AND being safe when LHO has the ♦A.

 

If that's in play at all, my answer would be no; the opponents have enough of a paucity (if that's not an oxymoron) of high cards that I assume the double shot isn't particularly valuable. I expect to go down if I mess the clubs up, so I'm not going to buck any restricted choice implications.

 

That being the case, I'll go along with testing the spades and going along with Phil's proposal.

 

In the "Why was this question posed?" pool, I'll go with neither 3-1 split, but instead, ♣QJ tight on my right, and ♦A on my left.

Their average longest suit depends on our hands. For example, if we had all 13 clubs, each opp would be 100% to have a 5+ card suit.