Sanity Check Poll

[CSGibson]

[hv=d=w&v=e&s=sq2h983d9865cj853]133|100|Scoring: MP

(1♥)-X-(4♥)-P,

(P)-X-(P)-?[/hv]

 

Opponents are playing a precision variant, so opener's hand is limited to 17 HCP.

 

What call would you make?

[rogerclee]

Pass.

[Mosene]

I think 4nt (pick a minor) and pass are the only real options. I passed, but not sure at all. Let me guess - they cross-ruff to make 5.

[pclayton]

If you've lurked BBF for more than a week, you know that pass is the only option on hands like this. I'm pretty sure our tendencies are not to take out these high-level auctions as often as others however, but this one is an obvious pass.

[CSGibson]

I think 4nt (pick a minor) and pass are the only real options. I passed, but not sure at all. Let me guess - they cross-ruff to make 5.

4, not 5. I took some heat for passing at the table, so I wanted to double-check what others would do.

[Lobowolf]

I'd sacrifice with 4NT (though at pairs, I'd feel better if 4Mx= was 810, not 790). What's 5m go for?

[Edmunte1]

Obvious pass for me

[mcphee]

Sorry, but passing does not cross my mind. Partner holds 1H if any at all, I hold zero defensive values and all offensive values (I find it ofensive pard dbled again:) ) and I can not fail to let pard choose his minor via 4N. I do not even feel this is any sort of problem, no brainer to bid.

[TimG]

[hv=d=w&v=e&s=sq2h983d9865cj853]133|100|Scoring: MP

(1♥)-X-(4♥)-P,

(P)-X-(P)-?[/hv]

 

Opponents are playing a precision variant, so opener's hand is limited to 17 HCP.

 

What call would you make?

I think that even if we beat 4H nearly half the time, we will lose fewer points (and IMPs) overall if we pull (via 4N).

 

It is possible that I give the vulnerable opponents too much credit for their jump to 4H, but I'd guess (with the help of simulation) that they're making about 60% of the time.

[CSGibson]

I'd sacrifice with 4NT (though at pairs, I'd feel better if 4Mx= was 810, not 790). What's 5m go for?

I'll let you decide for yourself:

[hv=d=w&v=e&n=sat86hdaq42cat974&w=s43haqj52dkj73ck6&e=skj975hkt764dtcq2&s=sq2h983d9865cj853]399|300|Scoring: MP[/hv]

[TimG]

I'm pretty sure our tendencies are not to take out these high-level auctions as often as others however, but this one is an obvious pass.

Is that the royal "our"?

[pclayton]

I'm pretty sure our tendencies are not to take out these high-level auctions as often as others however, but this one is an obvious pass.

Is that the royal "our"?

I have a mouse in my pocket.

 

He appreciates the reference to royalty.

[TimG]

I have a mouse in my pocket.

And here I thought you were just happy that someone was reading your posts.

[cherdano]

Against opponents who always have 10 trumps on this auction I think it is clearly right to take this double out. They have a 10-card fit, and we have a double fit in the minors (with a 9-card fit). It might well be a double game swing.

Against someone who might jump to 4♥ with, say, 6331 shape and some 10 hcp, we have to pass - which shows why these jumps can be a winning style.

[P_Marlowe]

Pass, wtp.

 

Given the bal. nature, I hope p has 4 tricks,

and can beat it on his own.

 

With kind regards

Marlowe

[ASkolnick]

I pass, but even more importantly, I don't think North has a 2nd takeout double. If you beat 4 Hearts, I doubt you are getting rich and you definitely have much more of a chance to beat 4H than go plus in anything else. Give partner an extra card (almost anywhere), and you have just changed your plus into a minus.

 

And even still, it was no guarantee that they would make game. Without the 2nd double, they may even guess spades wrong for you to go plus.

[jdeegan]

B) A qualified 4NT. This one looks like a 19 or 20 trick hand. No certainty how tricks might split, but there are more ways to lose by passing than bidding. This problem would be tougher at a different vulnerability. Also, tougher at MP's than IMP's. ♠Q is a good card.

 

A full explaination of RHO's 4♥ bid seems in order - what were his other alternatives - e.g. does it suggest five pieces of trump? If yes or probably yes, a cheerful 4NT seems clearcut at IMP's. Wtf, the opponents may take the push to 5♥.

[grrigg]

I agree that the 2nd takeout double was too much.

[waubrey]

Pass. No question for me.

[Codo]

I had passed.

 

I can see just two reasons to bid 4 NT:

1. They bid 4 HEart to make, they are vul. against not.

2. I have no trick in defence.

 

But otoh: Bidding will surely result in a minus. My shape screams defending and I have not many tricks in offense too and I don*'t spoil partners tricks with length in some side suits.

 

Here passing did not work because: Diamonds are 4-1, the spades behind the doubler, no way for us to lead trumps to cut down ruffs.

 

Besides: This is a clear second take out double for me. Sometimes they make a doubled contract, so what?

[TimG]

But otoh: Bidding will surely result in a minus. My shape screams defending and I have not many tricks in offense too and I don*'t spoil partners tricks with length in some side suits.

 

Here passing did not work because: Diamonds are 4-1, the spades behind the doubler, no way for us to lead trumps to cut down ruffs.

Often times the minus in 5m will be a good sacrifice against 4H (or 4Hx).

 

Suppose they are playing in a simply 4H at the other table and you pass this double. When 4H makes, you lose 5 IMPs; when 4H does down one, you win 5 IMPs; when 4H makes an overtrick, you lose 8 IMPs; when 4H goes down 2, you win 7 Imps. In order for you to win IMPs by passing, you have to think you are going to beat them more than half the time. If this is a clear takeout double (the 2nd time around) and you give your vulnerable opponents a bit of credit, I don't think you will be beating them more than 1/2 the time.

 

Well, maybe you are already in a position to lose IMPs no matter what you do and you will lose fewer by passing than by pulling to 5m? Of course it depends on the relative frequencies of both 4H and 5m being down and making and how much we go down when they make, etc., but the simulations I have done suggest that bidding to 5m will be a winner against either 4H or 4Hx at the other table. Even when passing 4Hx is a nearly break even prospect, pulling to 5m wins over an IMP per board (whether they play 4H or 4Hx at the other table).

 

Of course there was no way for us to lead trumps, they're overwhelming favorites to have 10 trumps (leaving partner with none) and I have no entry to get in to lead my trumps. Diamonds 4-1 can hardly be a surprise.

[benlessard]

Pass is obvious, if its not obvious for you then your requirement for doubling 4H are clearly not high enough.

 

It is possible that I give the vulnerable opponents too much credit for their jump to 4H, but I'd guess (with the help of simulation) that they're making about 60% of the time.

You are mostly not giving enough credit to your partner 2nd double.

 

I dont like the 2nd double and I know its not fun to miss a double swing game.

 

I remeber having a similar hand and thought at my first time to bid that its likely that the 2nd round of bidding will be back at 4H and i would have a dreadful problem. So ive thought a bit about making a michaels or to overcall 1S :( then the blood came back to my brain and ive visualize what would happen if partner only got 3S.

 

The key to these hands is hoping partner got more than 3S because if hes doesnt you are going nowhere. Partner will rarely have enough values/shapes to make 5m a better deal than 4Hx. Knowing partner will stretch a lot to bid 4S with 4+♠ there is just no need to X 4H the 2nd round without a bunch of extras. Once you realized this you know that the 2nd double is a clear mistake.