about chances

[tomcat777]

[hv=n=saj3haj108daq6c1086&s=s7h953d54cakqj975]133|200|[/hv]

 

With S hand, i played 6 cl. Lead was K sp. A sp and sp ruff with A cl, K cl and 9 cl to 10 from dummy. No more clubs for opps, and last sp from dummy ruff with Q cl. Now, u have : [hv=n=saj3haj108daq6c1086&s=s7h953d54cakqj975]133|200|[/hv]

What u will play now, and with what chances ? :)

[cherdano]

Run the ♥9, and the chances are pretty good!

[shevek]

Run the ♥9, and the chances are pretty good!

Running ♥9 is not so good, failing when East has H-x. He just returns a heart for an ignominious 1 down.

It's better to play to the ♥10. If it loses you are okay, the same 75% chance that you started with.

What if it wins?

Now it appears that West could have ♥KQxx, so you might then lead the ♥J off dummy. A diamond comes through and you are still in bad shape with an awkward guess.

 

All this shows that it was wrong to eliminate spades. Just draw trumps and take the double heart finesse, using spade ruffs to get back to hand.

In fact, the ♠J could have been a key card for a double squeeze, albeit double dummy.

[helene_t]

Hi Tomcat777, welcome to the forum! I hope you will feel at home here :)

[Edmunte1]

Hello Dan, welcome to the Bridgebase online forums!

[ArtK78]

Welcome to the Forums, Dan!

 

You did not state whether the clubs broke 3-0. If the clubs were 2-1, there is a better line available.

 

Win the spade Ace, ruff a spade (high), ♣A and a club to the 10. Assuming all of the clubs are out, ruff a spade and NOW play a heart to the 10 (don't run the 9 - that can wait for later if necessary). Assuming that this loses to RHO, he must either return a red suit into dummy's tenaces or give you a ruff-sluff. This provides your 11th trick. If RHO gives you the ruff-sluff, pitch a diamond from hand, ruff in dummy, play ♦A and ruff a diamond, and run the trumps. This should result in a show-up squeeze against LHO for the rest of the tricks.

 

This is the right play even if clubs are 3-0 as long as LHO has the clubs. Leave one club outstanding and play it the same way. As long as LHO does not have a singleton heart or a void in diamonds, you wind up in the same position.

 

If RHO has all three clubs, the play that you provided is as good as anything. There is an alternative, however. One can reasonably assume that LHO has the KQ of spades. So, one can not ruff any spades and just pull trump before playing a heart to the 10. RHO wins and can return a spade. Now, if LHO has any honor in the reds, you should have LHO in a show up squeeze. But you may have to guess which red honor he has. I have not thought this line through completely, but it has merit.

[nige1]

I've deleted my mistaken analysis. Having read previous and subsequent posts by cnzsum and others, I now agree that you might as well take 2 ♥ finesses.

[cherdano]

Run the ♥9, and the chances are pretty good!

Running ♥9 is not so good, failing when East has H-x. He just returns a heart for an ignominious 1 down.

Thanks, I learned a new word!

But if RHO returns a heart, I can get back to my hand with a club, and repeat the heart finesse for a prodigious make. (I guess for style points I could cash the ♦A first and then run the clubs for a fictitious Vienna coup)

[cnszsun]

We won't make the contract if both ♥K and Q offside. RHO will return diamond no matter who has ♦K, so i don't see much difference between the line suggested here and simple double hook.