Early Decision

[pclayton]

Kibbed this hand this morning:

 

[hv=d=e&v=n&n=sjt5hq973dj642cj8&s=sk6hkj2dakt3caqt9]133|200|Scoring: IMP[/hv]

 

East opened 1♠ on your right, you double and end up in 3N.

 

The opening lead is the ♠7. Plan the play for the 1st few tricks.

 

Late edit: Not only did RHO open 1♠, she rebid 2♠ mid-auction. Assume LHO is leading from 7 or 7x.

[vuroth]

T♠. If I can induce RHO to cover, the J5 on the board will prevent spades from being run immediately.

 

If RHO covers, I'll play the AK♦ first (assuming I wind up in hand) to see how many tricks diamonds is going to give me. This can also produce an entry to board if the queen falls.

 

If the ten holds, I'll run the club finesse twice, then play the AK♦. I can also play the A♣, hoping to drop the king.

 

On a very very good day, I might be able to make this without trying hearts.

[han]

Hmm, maybe I'd see if I could create an entry to dummy to finesse diamonds and then clubs.

[jtfanclub]

I think I'm going to force an entry into dummy. Play the ten on trick 1, if opp plays the ace I'll dump the king under it. Try diamonds first, low to ten (in case Q is singleton), then try clubs. If opp plays the Q on trick one, I'll win the king, then play a heart.

 

All of this only works only if East has the ace of hearts, which he might not:

 

AQxxxx

xx

Qxx

Kx

 

Seems good enough for a 1♠ opener to me, and if he has this exact hand I can make it by not dumping the king under the ace, or not winning the trick if he plays the queen, then attack hearts. But I think the odds favor East having the ace of hearts and/or 5 spades, in which case dumping the king under the ace is the right play.

[Echognome]

But I think the odds favor East having the ace of hearts and/or 5 spades, in which case dumping the king under the ace is the right play.

What if LHO has lead from Q97 or Q87?

[pclayton]

But I think the odds favor East having the ace of hearts and/or 5 spades, in which case dumping the king under the ace is the right play.

What if LHO has lead from Q97 or Q87?

I changed the original post Matt. RHO rebid spades, so LHO led from shortness.

[Echognome]

But I think the odds favor East having the ace of hearts and/or 5 spades, in which case dumping the king under the ace is the right play.

What if LHO has lead from Q97 or Q87?

I changed the original post Matt. RHO rebid spades, so LHO led from shortness.

Ah sorry. Didn't realize you had change the post. I think it leads to some interesting other options.

[rbforster]

Another vote for T♠ and unblocking the K if East wins. Diamond hook and returning to the J♦ for the club finesse. Yes, this is playing opener for all the cards, but maybe with a minimum hand they wouldn't have bid again even with a 6+ suit.

[the hog]

rho can't have all the cards else would have opened 1NT. I am playing J of S, dumping K under the Ace. I will try banging out KJ of H and need to know what happens on those cards.

[han]

rho can't have all the cards else would have opened 1NT.

With 6 spades?

[vuroth]

I will try banging out KJ of H and need to know what happens on those cards.

I strongly suspect they'll both win.

 

Otoh, I guess there's a decent cahnce RHO was dealt Ax in hearts.

[pclayton]

After some thought, I probably should not have put this in the BI section. Its a rather complicated hand and the correct line involves some guessing.

 

While its true that RHO might play the ♠A, which gives you the opportunity to dump your K, RHO might also play the Q.

 

Lets look at a few scenarios:

 

A. RHO has all of the pictures in ♥, di] and ♣. If RHO plays the A♠, you can effectively dump your K. If RHO plays the Q, you can still get to the board with a heart, and do all the finessing you need to do. So you can always make in this case.

 

B. RHO is missing the ♣K. I don't think you can ever make it. RHO can successfully play the A or Q, and shift to clubs in the case we unblock his majesty.

 

C. RHO is missing the ♦Q. The play proceeds similar to "A".

 

D. RHO is missing the ♥A. Now, a unique opportunity presents itself, and this was the case at the table when RHO actually had ♠AQxxxx ♥x ♦Qxx ♣Kxx. RHO played the Ace on the J and cleared the suit. Declarer didn't unblock the King, and was forced into the winning line of playing on hearts and ended up with 11 tricks. An unblock of the King would have been a disaster. The interesting play that I can see is if the defense plays the Q on the J, declarer must duck! The duck works here, but is a failure in A, B and C.

 

None of the above cases factor in the relevance of finding ♦]Q stiff or Qx, which isn't at all unlikely on the auction.

 

So notwithstanding some of the games the defense can play, and how East would defend holding different holdings in the minors, as well as East's perception of your hand. The ♣10-9 are particularly important in the layout as source of tricks, and RHO may decide that a passive defense is right.

 

I can also see RHO just covering the spade 10 with the Q just on 'general principles', especially if she thinks that you have ♠Kxx.

 

if anyone can come up with something conclusive on this hand, I'd like to hear it.