Pick a game

[NickRW]

Well, I thought this one was an interesting sim.

 

I set partners hand to 4 spades and 5 hearts exactly, 9-11hcp when 5422, 8-11 when 5431 and 7-11 when 5440 (partner is fairly pushy!) - but in no case has hcp + controls + "freakness" (by the pavlicek [whose dealer program I use] definition) >= 18 (so nothing like a lightish opener - in practice this puts a ceiling slightly lower than 11hcp for the 5440 possibility).

 

I got

 

3♠ (or better) makes 151 cases out of 200

4♠ makes 67 times

4♥ makes 70 times

3N makes 82 times

4♦ (or better) makes 99 times

5♦ makes 44 times.

 

So, hmmmm. If this were MP pairs and if partner is known to be pushy, then pass has some merit I guess. If partner is not as pushy as I simulated, then pass is probably too much of a breach of partnership discipline.

 

If 4♦ would be taken as a natural call, then that too wouldn't be awful as it leaves the option of partner taking us back in to 4♥ with either 6 of them or looking at a diamond stiff.

 

Of the game calls, 4♠ looks to be the worst option, just. But I think it has to be a bad call as it closes the door on 4♥ should partner turn out to have a sixth heart.

 

Out of 4♥ and 3N, 3N seems to make more often and doesn't close the door on 4♥ should partner have six of them, so looks to be the best call, despite the suit orientation of our hand (lots of aces).

 

Nick

[han]

With 4 spades and 6 hearts partner would have used delayed texas so you don't have to consider that possibility.

 

Also, at the table declarer will make game more often than the double dummy results suggest. In fact, the defense could have beaten Josh but didn't.

[jdonn]

With 4 spades and 6 hearts partner would have used delayed texas so you don't have to consider that possibility.

 

Also, at the table declarer will make game more often than the double dummy results suggest. In fact, the defense could have beaten Josh but didn't.

I ended up choosing 4♥. Partner had like the best hand ever for 3NT (9xxx KQxxx Qxx K) and I should have gone down, but they misdefended. However this points to a huge advantage of 4♥ over 4♠. If you bid 4♠ they know you have 7 trumps and will probably lead one most of the time and beat you easily. If you bid 4♥ they are misled about your hand and are very likely to misdefend. I think 4♥ would certainly have the greatest advantage of any contract over double-dummy in a sim.

[Guest Jlall]

With 4 spades and 6 hearts partner would have used delayed texas so you don't have to consider that possibility.

 

Also, at the table declarer will make game more often than the double dummy results suggest. In fact, the defense could have beaten Josh but didn't.

I ended up choosing 4♥. Partner had like the best hand ever for 3NT (9xxx KQxxx Qxx K) and I should have gone down, but they misdefended. However this points to a huge advantage of 4♥ over 4♠. If you bid 4♠ they know you have 7 trumps and will probably lead one most of the time and beat you easily. If you bid 4♥ they are misled about your hand and are very likely to misdefend. I think 4♥ would certainly have the greatest advantage of any contract over double-dummy in a sim.

As long as you dont tank 4H.

[jdonn]

I think I tanked just a little (for me) for honest reasons of just deciding what I would do. But they would probably just assume that meant I was balanced with three hearts anyway, I think.

[han]

I thought you had 2 hearts before I saw your hand.

[mike777]

With 4 spades and 6 hearts partner would have used delayed texas so you don't have to consider that possibility.

 

Also, at the table declarer will make game more often than the double dummy results suggest. In fact, the defense could have beaten Josh but didn't.

I ended up choosing 4♥. Partner had like the best hand ever for 3NT (9xxx KQxxx Qxx K) and I should have gone down, but they misdefended. However this points to a huge advantage of 4♥ over 4♠. If you bid 4♠ they know you have 7 trumps and will probably lead one most of the time and beat you easily. If you bid 4♥ they are misled about your hand and are very likely to misdefend. I think 4♥ would certainly have the greatest advantage of any contract over double-dummy in a sim.

Partner has a hand type I thought he did......

 

excellent post and learning problem

 

perhaps even more important than bidding is the play where a true expert can bring home a difficult contract that we nonexperts do not.

[jdonn]

I thought you had 2 hearts before I saw your hand.

Huh? If you were watching, you saw my hand right away. If you saw it in the post, you saw my hand right away. If it was given to you as a bidding problem, it's an easy guess since someone is bothering to give it to you.

[sathyab]

With 4 spades and 6 hearts partner would have used delayed texas so you don't have to consider that possibility.

 

Also, at the table declarer will make game more often than the double dummy results suggest. In fact, the defense could have beaten Josh but didn't.

I ended up choosing 4♥. Partner had like the best hand ever for 3NT (9xxx KQxxx Qxx K) and I should have gone down, but they misdefended. However this points to a huge advantage of 4♥ over 4♠. If you bid 4♠ they know you have 7 trumps and will probably lead one most of the time and beat you easily. If you bid 4♥ they are misled about your hand and are very likely to misdefend. I think 4♥ would certainly have the greatest advantage of any contract over double-dummy in a sim.

With half your HCP in the minors isn't there a case to be made for bidding 3nt with 9xxx KQxxx Qxx K rather than go thru Smolen ?

[benlessard]

With half your HCP in the minors isn't there a case to be made for bidding 3nt with 9xxx KQxxx Qxx K rather than go thru Smolen.

Not really, if you have a fit there is no major reason to let you think that 3Nt will be better than 4H.

[hrothgar]

Here's my take

 

I suspect that 4 of a major is going to play better than 3N

 

Partner rates to be 4=5=1=3, which doesn't make me excited about 3N (My best feature is my diamond suit and I don't expect to establish it. The trick is figuring out which major I want to play in. Depending on partner's hand either 4♥ or 4♠ could be the right contract.

 

Curious whether anyone uses either 4♣ or 4♦ over Smolen to ask a question about the major suit holding (suit quality or some such)

[kenrexford]

I thought you had 2 hearts before I saw your hand.

Huh? If you were watching, you saw my hand right away. If you saw it in the post, you saw my hand right away. If it was given to you as a bidding problem, it's an easy guess since someone is bothering to give it to you.

I thought you had two hearts when I saw the title of the post as "Pick a game." Doubleton hearts always make for a difficult choice.

[kenrexford]

With half your HCP in the minors isn't there a case to be made for bidding 3nt with 9xxx KQxxx Qxx K rather than go thru Smolen.

Not really, if you have a fit there is no major reason to let you think that 3Nt will be better than 4H.

But there might be a minor reason to think that. LOL

[dburn]

I am abashed to confess that I have made no study of Smolen at all. What does 1NT-2♦-2♥-2♠ mean if playing Smolen? Does this meaning change if responder to 1NT is a passed hand?

[han]

I thought you had 2 hearts before I saw your hand.

Huh? If you were watching, you saw my hand right away. If you saw it in the post, you saw my hand right away. If it was given to you as a bidding problem, it's an easy guess since someone is bothering to give it to you.

I was your partner silly. I didn't see your hand until after your final tank.

[mike777]

I am abashed to confess that I have made no study of Smolen at all. What does 1NT-2♦-2♥-2♠ mean if playing Smolen? Does this meaning change if responder to 1NT is a passed hand?

1) invite with 5h and 4s.

2) no.