Fun 3N

[pclayton]

Here's one to bend your noodle a little:

 

[hv=d=e&v=b&n=st95hkq62dk73cjt6&s=sq73hajtdaq62ck95]133|200|Scoring: IMP

RHO (East) Opens 2S and you overcall 2N. pard staymans and you end up in 3N. LHO leads the club 4, J, 7, 5[/hv]

 

You win the club lead in dummy and try two hearts, RHO showing out on the 2nd.

 

Onward.

[andrei]

did LHO started with:

 

♠A

♥xxxxx

♦xx

♣AQxxx

 

?

 

play 4 rounds of ♥, 2 rounds of ♦ and exit with ♠.

 

In the end we will score 4♥ + 3♦ + 2♣

[kenrexford]

did LHO started with:

 

♠A

♥xxxxx

♦xx

♣AQxxx

 

?

 

play 4 rounds of ♥, 2 rounds of ♦ and exit with ♠.

 

In the end we will score 4♥ + 3♦ + 2♣

That line also works if LHO has ♠K ♥xxxx ♦xx ♣AQxxxx. If RHO ducks the spade, LHO is endplayed. If RHO rises, he crashes partner's King and has no other club to lead.

[pclayton]

did LHO started with:

 

♠A

♥xxxxx

♦xx

♣AQxxx

 

?

 

play 4 rounds of ♥, 2 rounds of ♦ and exit with ♠.

 

In the end we will score 4♥ + 3♦ + 2♣

That line also works if LHO has ♠K ♥xxxx ♦xx ♣AQxxxx. If RHO ducks the spade, LHO is endplayed. If RHO rises, he crashes partner's King and has no other club to lead.

LHO didn't start with ♥xxxx unless RHO reneged.

[kenrexford]

Hey! I didn't see that last part earlier.

 

OK, it works if K-xxxxx-x-AQxxxx.

[pclayton]

wd all :(

[pclayton]

did LHO started with:

 

♠A

♥xxxxx

♦xx

♣AQxxx

 

?

 

play 4 rounds of ♥, 2 rounds of ♦ and exit with ♠.

 

In the end we will score 4♥ + 3♦ + 2♣

I think you have the right idea. I was hoping someone would elaborate on why cashing the 2nd diamond is important, but it is to get a count and see if LHO is 1=5=2=5 or 1=5=1=6.

[cherdano]

Why aren't we cashing a 3rd diamond? Can't LHO be x xxxxx xxx AQxx?

Knowing opponent's methods at trick one would help.

 

Would LHO be able to find pitching his SA on the diamonds? If so, cashing the third diamond would lose if he is 1525, but I think that is less likely than him having a hand with 3 diamonds.

[pclayton]

Why aren't we cashing a 3rd diamond? Can't LHO be x xxxxx xxx AQxx?

Knowing opponent's methods at trick one would help.

 

Would LHO be able to find pitching his SA on the diamonds? If so, cashing the third diamond would lose if he is 1525, but I think that is less likely than him having a hand with 3 diamonds.

I considered this hand, but I don't think anyone ever leads a club from that collection.

 

Furthermore, I don't think the jettison is that hard to find. West can count 4 hearts, 3 diamonds and a club. If we have the ♠K, he's never beating the hand.

[sathyab]

Why aren't we cashing a 3rd diamond? Can't LHO be x xxxxx xxx AQxx?

Knowing opponent's methods at trick one would help.

 

Would LHO be able to find pitching his SA on the diamonds? If so, cashing the third diamond would lose if he is 1525, but I think that is less likely than him having a hand with 3 diamonds.

Assuming standard signals, the ♣7 is likely to be from two little or stiff, not from three small. So West has led from a five or six bagger in clubs. I am not sure that he needs to have a spade honor. Looking at a stiff spade in your, you could easily choose to lead your own suit instead. But playing him for a stiff spade honor may be the best chance to make the contract though.

[andrei]

if LHO is 1-5-1-6 we are cold no matter what, either LHO or RHO will be endplayed to give us the 9th trick.

 

if LHO is 1-5-2-5 we must play 2 diamonds and hope LHO has AS, if we play a third one it might be easy for him to ditch the A of spades.

 

if LHO is 1-5-3-4 playing 2 rounds of D and exiting a spade will not hurt if his singleton spade is A or K, we will still make it ...

[cherdano]

Why are you assuming standard signals?

 

Anyway, the problem of course is that the hands with a singleton ace are a priori a lot less likely than hands with any other spade singleton. So even if only 25% would lead a club from x xxxxx xxx AQxx, this hand still has to be a favorite (1534 is also a bit more likely than 1525). And I don't think the club lead is that unreasonable after LHO has implied hearts.

[sathyab]

Why are you assuming standard signals?

 

Anyway, the problem of course is that the hands with a singleton ace are a priori a lot less likely than hands with any other spade singleton. So even if only 25% would lead a club from x xxxxx xxx AQxx, this hand still has to be a favorite (1534 is also a bit more likely than 1525). And I don't think the club lead is that unreasonable after LHO has implied hearts.

The problem statement didn't indicate otherwise, so I assumed signalling was "standard". But may be you're supposed to arrive at a possible lay-out for the contract through other means, such as whether he's more likely to lead his own suit from AQxx or AQxxx. A club lead from AQxxx has a lot more potential than from a holding of AQxx.