Bid over 4[SP]?

[gnasher]

[hv=d=w&v=b&s=s8ha962da8653cj103]133|100|Scoring: IMP

pass 1♥   3♠   4♥

4♠   pass pass[/hv]

Partner's pass is non-forcing. What would you do? If you double or pass, what would you lead?

[Guest Jlall]

I would double and lead the heart ace.

[OleBerg]

My agreement with partner is that double shows a constructive hand that believed 4♥ was a winner. Naturally partner will often pass.

 

If he does, I lead the ♥A too.

[jdonn]

I would double and lead the heart ace.

Me too.

[xcurt]

I would definitely double but I think I want to lead the ♦A. Don't ask me why.

[skjaeran]

Clear double IMO.

I'm leading the heart ace.

[Guest Jlall]

I would definitely double but I think I want to lead the ♦A. Don't ask me why.

I think it is because the lead was posted as part of the problem, and since the heart ace is such an obvious lead it is unlikely to be right. If you had this hand at the table you would not get this strange "feeling" because you would not know it is a forum problem hand. This is a common phenomenon.

[xcurt]

I would definitely double but I think I want to lead the ♦A.  Don't ask me why.

I think it is because the lead was posted as part of the problem, and since the heart ace is such an obvious lead it is unlikely to be right. If you had this hand at the table you would not get this strange "feeling" because you would not know it is a forum problem hand. This is a common phenomenon.

I agree that the ♥A is the reflex lead and of course the ringing bell is always a possibility but I want to lead it because I think I can recover from the ♦A being wrong more often that I can recover from the ♥A being wrong.

 

The ♦A can lose like so:

 

# They ruff it and the tempo was important

# We set up their king for a pitch in the other hand AND we have a slow trick in that suit

# It blows a trick in the diamond suit. There are too many cases in the diamond suit to enumerate them all but holding 5 and not 4 makes a big difference since lacking intermediates odds are we don't have a third-round winner to protect as one of the other hands must hold a doubleton or shorter

 

The ♥A can lose like so:

 

# They ruff it and the tempo was important

# We set up their king for a pitch in the other hand AND we have a slow trick in that suit

# Partner is ruffing diamond(s) and cashing the ♥A attacks our entry to get a(nother) ruff

 

I think that the vig lies with leading the ♦A.

[OleBerg]

If it was somehow forbidden for me to lead a heart, I'd lead the ♣J.

[gnasher]

I think it is because the lead was posted as part of the problem, and since the heart ace is such an obvious lead it is unlikely to be right. If you had this hand at the table you would not get this strange "feeling" because you would not know it is a forum problem hand. This is a common phenomenon.

Has somebody masquerading as me been posting lots of leading questions lately? I asked what people would lead because I regard what to lead as part of the decision about what to bid, I didn't think either was clearcut, and I wanted to hear what people had to say on the subject. There was nothing about the actual deal that made an unusual lead necessary.

 

Anyway, not everyone thinks a heart is automatic: I led a trump, and that turned out to be neither better nor worse than a heart.

[jdonn]

I agree that the ♥A is the reflex lead and of course the ringing bell is always a possibility but I want to lead it because I think I can recover from the ♦A being wrong more often that I can recover from the ♥A being wrong.

Even if true, that sort of ignores the fact (well fact to me) that a diamond lead IS wrong waaaaaay more often than a heart lead is wrong.

 

On your list of 3 times each lead loses, where occurence 1 and 2 are the same for each lead, those two possibilities are extremely more likely on the diamond ace lead than on the heart ace lead.

[benlessard]

I think double is a weak bid. Sure ive got 2 aces but ive already showned values. Its pointless to compete to 4H without values (you are red)

 

Doubling is just bidding the hand twice for no reasons. I also lead the ♥ A.

[xcurt]

I agree that the ♥A is the reflex lead and of course the ringing bell is always a possibility but I want to lead it because I think I can recover from the ♦A being wrong more often that I can recover from the ♥A being wrong.

Even if true, that sort of ignores the fact (well fact to me) that a diamond lead IS wrong waaaaaay more often than a heart lead is wrong.

 

On your list of 3 times each lead loses, where occurence 1 and 2 are the same for each lead, those two possibilities are extremely more likely on the diamond ace lead than on the heart ace lead.

Are you saying they're more likely to ruff off the ♦A than the ♥A?

 

Edit -- also if one of them is void in diamonds, we're almost certainly already headed for a bad score.

[655321]

Double, ♥A.

 

Double seems pretty clear to me. Partner has opened the bidding and we have 2 Aces. Also, LHO is a passed hand and RHO has preempted. Sure, they might make 4♠, but I think they are much more likely to go down. Bidding 5♥ doesn't seem sensible either.

 

I admit that leading the ♦A does have some strange attraction (perhaps because it can lead to an immediate set: ♦A, ♦ruff, ♥A, ♦ ruff), but I would never do this.

Anyway, no reason to assume partner has a singleton diamond - RHO likely has 7 spades, LHO 3 or 4, so partner only has 1 or 2 spades.

 

♥A is also an unsupported Ace, but not only has partner bid the suit, but RHO has preempted. If LHO has a singleton heart, then even if RHO has the ♥K leading the Ace is probably OK. Perhaps hearts 2-2 with RHO holding the King is the only case where leading the ♥A costs.

[gnasher]

[hv=d=w&v=b&n=s1042hkj8754dkca74&w=sa5h103dq9742ck962&e=skqj9763hqdj10cq85&s=s8ha962da8653cj103]399|300|Scoring: IMP[/hv]

I doubled and led a trump, thinking that the only way this was likely to make was if dummy had a shortage. Either a heart or a trump leads to two down - partner's trumps prevent their doing anything useful with the diamonds. xcurt's diamond lead wouldn't have been a great success.

[gnasher]

My agreement with partner is that double shows a constructive hand that believed 4♥ was a winner. Naturally partner will often pass.

Would he bid 5♥ on the actual hand?

[OleBerg]

My agreement with partner is that double shows a constructive hand that believed 4♥ was a winner. Naturally partner will often pass.

Would he bid 5♥ on the actual hand?

I don't think so. I wouldn't myself, but my partner has often shown better judgement than me, especially in high-level competitive auctions, so maybe he would

[Guest Jlall]

Not a fan of this trump lead, it's easy to construct hands where we either need to lead a heart and switch to clubs before they have time to pitch clubs on the diamonds, or where we need to lead a heart to switch to diamonds for either a ruff/trump promotion (Kx, x, xx with pard), or (less likely) to cash 4 red suit tricks when their black suit tricks are solid, or (even less likely) to avoid picking off parnters Qxx of spades. I'm not really seeing the gains and it seems unnecessarily fancy.

[Guest Jlall]

I agree that the ♥A is the reflex lead and of course the ringing bell is always a possibility but I want to lead it because I think I can recover from the ♦A being wrong more often that I can recover from the ♥A being wrong.

Even if true, that sort of ignores the fact (well fact to me) that a diamond lead IS wrong waaaaaay more often than a heart lead is wrong.

 

On your list of 3 times each lead loses, where occurence 1 and 2 are the same for each lead, those two possibilities are extremely more likely on the diamond ace lead than on the heart ace lead.

Are you saying they're more likely to ruff off the ♦A than the ♥A?

 

Edit -- also if one of them is void in diamonds, we're almost certainly already headed for a bad score.

Umm no, he's saying it's way more likely that the bad things that can happen with both the DA/HA leads happen when you lead a diamond (like blowing an important tempo, or setting up their suit for pitch, blowing a trick). This should be obvious. Your "logic" is flawed not because of your incomplete list of the downsides of each lead, but because it does not account for the much higher likelihood that the downside occurs when you lead diamonds rather than hearts.