Bump it a level?

[CSGibson]

[hv=d=n&v=b&s=sakqhqj5dk873ck84]133|100|Scoring: IMP

Opponents passing throughout.

1♣-1♦,

1♥-1♠*,

2♠-2N,

3♣-4♣,

5♣-?[/hv]

 

playing 2/1, 1♠ is 4th suit forcing to game, the rest of the sequence is natural. Has South bid accurately at this point in your opinion? Bump to 6 clubs?

[Guest Jlall]

Partner seems to be 4405 with the worst possible hand (5C over 4C seems very negative). If I was playing with my most regular partner I would trust them not to have 2 keycards + the queen, and not AK A for sure. Seems like a lot of this will hinge on the spade jack and the HT, and also will hinge on how light partner opens. If partner will open 10 counts routinely with this shape then slam could be pretty terrible opposite xxxx Kxxx --- AQJxx, or could be quite good opposite Jxxx KTxx --- AQxxx. But if you take away the HT in the latter hand it's still bad. Then we have Jxxx AKxx --- QTxxx hand types...

 

I think overall I would pass if I thought partner would routinely have a 10 count with this shape and bid if partner would only have 11+. Also if I didn't trust partner to mean 5C as a very serious warning sign I would bid on.

[Rossoneri]

Pass.

[mike777]

[hv=d=n&v=b&s=sakqhqj5dk873ck84]133|100|Scoring: IMP

Opponents passing throughout.

1♣-1♦,

1♥-1♠*,

2♠-2N,

3♣-4♣,

5♣-?[/hv]

 

playing 2/1, 1♠ is 4th suit forcing to game, the rest of the sequence is natural.  Has South bid accurately at this point in your opinion?  Bump to 6 clubs?

Prefer to bid 4d kickback, if we play that, rkc for clubs over three clubs if that is an option. Opener should just respond keycards and not show any void as void may not be useful. I hope partner does not open ten hcp 3 suited hands when Vul.

 

If not I just pass now.

[rogerclee]

6♣, agree with the previous bidding.

[EricK]

I'm wondering whether 4♣ by you was necessary to show support. By opener's 4th bid, he has shown (I presume) 4-4-0-5 and you have shown (I presume) a balanced hand with 4+♦ and no 4 card major. Are bids below 3NT looking for a 4-3 major fit, or are they cue-bids with ♣ agreed. In particular, what would a 3♦ bid by you now show?

[CSGibson]

I'm wondering whether 4♣ by you was necessary to show support. By opener's 4th bid, he has shown (I presume) 4-4-0-5 and you have shown (I presume) a balanced hand with 4+♦ and no 4 card major. Are bids below 3NT looking for a 4-3 major fit, or are they cue-bids with ♣ agreed. In particular, what would a 3♦ bid by you now show?

3 diamonds by me would be a transfer to 3N in this auction. Not by agreement, but in all practicality.

[jdonn]

I would bid 6♣, the range of hands that don't make slam good seems extremely small to me, or even nonexistant for players who don't open quite light. And even opposite those hands slam is probably not worse than a 3-3 or something like that.

[EricK]

I'm wondering whether 4♣ by you was necessary to show support. By opener's 4th bid, he has shown (I presume) 4-4-0-5 and you have shown (I presume) a balanced hand with 4+♦ and no 4 card major. Are bids below 3NT looking for a 4-3 major fit, or are they cue-bids with ♣ agreed. In particular, what would a 3♦ bid by you now show?

3 diamonds by me would be a transfer to 3N in this auction. Not by agreement, but in all practicality.

I'm not sure I understand what you are saying here - surely partner knows that if you want to play in 3NT you could have bid it yourself so will look to bid something else. My worry would be whether he would bid his strong 4 card major looking for a Moysian, or make the cheaper cue. But anyway you can still take 3NT out to 4♣ and not have lost anything.

[P_Marlowe]

Agree with the bidding, now pass.

 

What have I shown?

 

A bal. hand, with 3 card club support, 4 diamonds,

no 4 hearts, with heavy slam interest.

Looks more or less, what I hold.

 

The only question I have, did partner already

limit his hand, before I did bid 4C, would it

be possible at this point, that he still could hold

a max. min opener.

 

With kind regards

Marlowe

[skjaeran]

Partner seems to be 4-4-0-5 and holds a minimum.

 

That means we're playing with a 30 hcp deck, and I've got 15 very nice hcp for partner. Even with a light opening style, I'm raising this. 6♣ won't be worse than on a 3-3 break, and often far better than that.

[jdonn]

That means we're playing with a 30 hcp deck

Hehe yesterday with Clee we actually had a hand with 30 HCP in three suits and a void in the other. Very easy grand to bid (they didn't even interfere in our auction) but our opponents missed it :blink:

 

Dealer: xx AQJxx xx KQJx

Responder: AKQJxxx Kx - Axxx

[ochinko]

I voted for 6♣, although I'd be more confident with the same controls and distribution, but a point *less* in my hand:

 

♠ AKQ

♥ KQ5

♦ 9873

♣ K84

 

:blink:

[Guest Jlall]

That means we're playing with a 30 hcp deck

Hehe yesterday with Clee we actually had a hand with 30 HCP in three suits and a void in the other. Very easy grand to bid (they didn't even interfere in our auction) but our opponents missed it :blink:

 

Dealer: xx AQJxx xx KQJx

Responder: AKQJxxx Kx - Axxx

This was a thinly-veiled brag that CLEE would play with you irl.

[Edmunte1]

This slam demands usually 3 out of 3 small important cards (♥10, ♠J, ♣J) in partner's hand to be a good one. Some numbers:

 

- Partner will have ♠J in 4/10 cases (40%) or we need the suit to be 3-3, for a total of 60% chance

-Partner will have ♥10 in 3/9 cases (33%) or we need the suit to break 3-3 for a total of 55% chance

-Partner will have ♣J in 3/8 cases (37,5%) or we need the suit to break 3-2 for a total of 80% chances

 

It depends a lot of your opening style.

-If you open usually with 11+ hcp, the slam will be a 55% affair

-If you open usually with 10+ hcp with this shape it will be something like

((55% x 80%) +(55% x60%))/2 =38.5%

[jdonn]

You severely underestimate. For example take the case where you believe slam is 55%. If partner has Jxxx K9xx - AQJxx the hearts will come in if they are 3-3, singleton A or Ax on your left, or Tx on either side. Even if he has K432 you forgot about A or Ax on your left (or they might lead the A from Axxx!), which combines to be a lot better than a 3-3 break. Or say partner has Txxx KTxx - AQJxx. It's not on 3-3 spades, it's approximately on 3-3 spades OR J on either side OR Jx on either side OR doubleton spade with doubleton club.

[Edmunte1]

Yes, i realised after i posted (i should stop posting after 1 a.m. :D ) that i missed many other chances like:

-Partner has ♠10 and ♠J doubleton or singleton (around 13%)

- Partner has ♥9 and ♥10 is falling (around 11%)

- Hearts are 4-2 and East has Ax in hearts (around 8%)

- Some squeeze chances if West has Ax in hearts and East has 4♥ and ♦A (around 4%)

 

So the slam is playable