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han

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The following two hands came up tonight on BBO, they may or may not be interesting.

 

[hv=d=s&v=b&s=sakj10hq10xdxckqxxx]133|100|Scoring: IMP[/hv]

 

The bidding went

 

1C - (5D) - p - (p)

??

 

And the next:

 

[hv=d=s&v=b&s=sakj10hq10xdxckqxxx]133|100|Scoring: IMP[/hv]

 

(1S) - p -(3D*) - 4C

(4S) - p - (p) - Dbl

(p) - ??

 

3D was a Bergen raise (about 6-9 pts).

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The second hand, i know, as Bob Hamman and Chris Compton played that one while I was kibiting. So I can't answer, as I know what the best bid is. (their auction started 1s-p-3s instead of 1S-p-3D however.

 

On the first hand, I have to pass and just let them play it.

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First one I definitely double, of course there is no guarantee of beating them but I would never let them steal me blind when I have this hand. Don't think it's that close.

 

Second one tougher, I guess I would bid 5 but could possibly be convinced to pass.

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1. not thrilled on hand 1, but it is very much borderline double: distribution is ok and bare minimum strength with no guarantees but that is life...at this level you expect partner to sit frequently but it is also "pour encourager les autres"

 

2. 5H : partner holds short S, 6+ C and more than tolerance for H with extra values...C could be right but you just bid what is under your nose as 4NT is not right for me here

 

regards

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1) I like double on this hand. Maybe we make a game and 5X is 2 down, maybe we make nothing and 5X is cold, but I do think we have enough in the way of extra values to double.

 

2) 5, not at all close. Partner has not promised 4 tricks in defense against spades. Partner has at most 1 spade, probably none, and, with heart support and a spade void opposite, playing 5 must be a lot more promising than defending 4X.

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I hope more will respond but let me tell you about partner's hands.

 

On the first partner had xxxxx KJxxxx - xx. At our table we doubled and ed to 5H which made after the defense didn't find their spade ruff.

 

On the second hand partner had - AKxx Axx KQJxxx. We defended 4SX which went down after a misplay. 5H can be set with a club ruff but the person with Axxx of clubs would have to lead them.

 

Thoughts about partner's bidding?

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1) Double. We might have a game, though I doubt it. Can't let them steal us blind, odds are they go down.

 

2) 5, wtp. This one seems very obvious to me. Partner made a t/o double and I've got a 6-bagger in the unbid major. They might make 4 or we might make 5 or both.

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The first hand also presented a defensive problem.

 

Fwiw: I was the diamond bidder on both hands.

 

On the first hand I held void, Ax, AKJTxxxx, J9x. When my partner led a low diamond, I played the Ace (not the usual Ten), and Han ruffed. When he led a heart toward dummy, I won with the ace and tried figure out where two more tricks were coming from. I played my partner for the Club Ace and shifted to the Jack of Clubs. I had hoped that that, along with play of the diamond Ace at trick 1, might get partner to return a spade. Alas, P returned a second club. Admittedly, it was difficult for my partner to envision declarer with 5 spades along with length in hearts.

 

My question is: do people agree with my choice of plays, or is there a better way to suggest that partner shift to a spade from Qxxx?

 

as always, TIA and best wishes:

 

DHL

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Dealer: South
Vul: Both
Scoring: IMP
AKJ10
Q10x
x
KQxxx
 

 

The bidding went

 

1C - (5D) - p - (p)

??

 

I let Dealmaster pro deal 100 hands where we have the given hand, lefty has either at least 9 diamonds or 8 diamonds and a 4-card side suit. I also required that partner has at most 10 HCP. I let Deep Finesse determine the number of tricks they would take in diamonds and the number of tricks we would take in clubs, hearts or spades.

 

Then I went through them manually. For each of the hands I determined whether the bidding to date was reasonable (not always clear) and what partner would do if we doubled. This is of course difficult to do, I think that partner would typically pull with a diamond void, and often with a singleton diamond and a 6-card major or with any 7-card major.

 

My results give that if partner passes the double, they are slightly more likely to make it than go down (42 vs 39) and in total we lose 4 IMPs. 4 IMPs over 81 hands is off course negligible.

 

However, if partner pulls (not very frequent) then double is usually a winner, we often get to a making game or a cheap sac. The total IMP score here is +72.

 

So that gives a total of +68 IMPs over 97 hands (I only threw away 3 hands), about 2/3 of an IMP in favor of the double per hand. There were 47 negative results and 50 positive results.

 

Your results may vary if you use different requirements for the 5D bid or if you would let partner pull the double differently. Double dummy play and defense might also have an impact (my impression is that on these hands, the double dummy lead was a serious factor but the play was often straightforward).

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I think if you gave LHO too much credit for their 5D bid against almost everyone. Those results seem roughly as expected though (lose a little when partner passes and win a lot when he bids). I think the fact that partner is probably not leading a spade that often in real life but double dummy he is works in our favor in the sim as you pointed out.
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