Georgia on my mind

[mike777]

Yes, many sides....

 

Here in USA the big stories were an American Football player changing teams, and an American politician cheating on his wife.

 

Most Americans are not even sure if Georgia or South Ossetia is in Asia or Europe.

Is Europe/China/India/Turkey doing anything? You are alot closer and know the terrain and culture better than us.

Gerben, being much closer than us to the situation what do you recommend?

You'd think Americans would know more about Georgia given that it is the country with the 3rd most troops in Iraq. You'd think that would help mandate a little more US support to an attack on their country than "we'd prefer that all sides reach peace".

1) I doubt many Americans except a few policy wonks or newshog readers have any idea how many troops other countries contribute.

2) My guess is Americans can tell you alot more about Bret Farve story or cheating Politician story than can you tell you anything about the culture, politics or terrain of Georgia. I know for a fact the entire state of Wisconsin seemed to call my Wife this weekend and none of the talk was about Mother Russia. With Monday night football tonight(Packers) they again will be on the phone all night long...ugg..

3) I think some Americans will hear this story and think GA. has been invaded..hmmm I wonder if that will affect football down in the deep South this fall?

4) With the Monday Night football and the Monday night Olympics....sad to say most of us have no idea what is going on in that conflict or why.

[kenberg]

The Christian Science Monitor has a decent article

 

http://www.csmonitor.com/2008/0812/p01s08-woeu.html?page=1

Very useful. Thank you.

[Aberlour10]

What did Mr Sakashvilli think on the night to friday as his forces openend massive fire with heavy weapons to South Ossetia?. There were russian peace keepers (stationed since cease-fire agreement of 1992) under this heavy fire, many of them died, much more civilians died, the town of Tskhinvali was completely destroyed.

US would immediately punish everybody who starts to kill their soldiers and citizens ,the Russians do it too.

 

 

Robert

[Winstonm]

If you or your ally were planning a military strike against Iran, it would make sense to enlist the help of Georgia to draw the attention of Russia and its military.

[kenberg]

Mike has suggested (more than suggested) that most Americans don't have a clear grasp of what is going on. I am not all that surprised to find myself among them.

 

Still, it's a democracy here and so I must try to have an opinion. It's a work in progress.

 

The CSM article was interesting to me. But now I am wondering more than before: Why was it seen as a good idea to have Georgia be part of NATO? I never heard of South Ossetia. My spell checker never heard of South Ossetia. But it appears there is some seriously unsettled business there. Does someone in the State Department, where they presumably know more than I do, have a decent understanding of what we are getting into here? We don't need to be committing more troops to someplace where the main objective of most people is to kill their neighbors.

 

Maybe Mr. Bush should go take another look into Mr. Putin's soul.

[mike777]

I hope I have also suggested this looks like a great time to follow the lead of countries/Europe who are located close by and know a heck of alot more about the politics, culture and terrain.

 

Good time for our allies in Europe/China/Turkey and India to show us how it should be done as we follow.

 

At this point in time I hope you guys and gals there can post what your leadership suggests.

 

Yes we all want peace....and peace now!

[Aberlour10]

It is very hard to get objective, independed and confirmed informations about what exactly is going on in the conflict zone at the moment. From one side Moscows desinformation campaign, from the other Mr Sakashvilli's personally propaganda every full hour on CNN, BBC etc.

 

For sure is only one: Truth is first victim of this war.

 

Robert

[Winstonm]

Here is a rather even-handed look at this conflict from theguardian

 

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/20.../georgia.russia

[bb79]

Here is a news about Turkey's point of view:

 

Turkey proposes the formation of a Caucasian union to resolve conflicts

[helene_t]

Good time for our allies in Europe/China/Turkey and India to show us how it should be done as we follow.

 

At this point in time I hope you guys and gals there can post what your leadership suggests.

I am happy that you are interested in our opinions. However, it will take some two or three years for the EU/WEU/OSCE/EC/etc bureaucracies to formulate a POV and sorting out how to pay the bills. Hopefully by that time the crisis will be over.

[sceptic]

Good time for our allies in Europe/China/Turkey and India to show us how it should be done as we follow.

 

At this point in time I hope you guys and gals there can post what your leadership suggests.

I am happy that you are interested in our opinions. However, it will take some two or three years for the EU/WEU/OSCE/EC/etc bureaucracies to formulate a POV and sorting out how to pay the bills. Hopefully by that time the crisis will be over.

I think you are seriously understimating Europes ability to drag it out before they have to make the wrong decision

[Al_U_Card]

Maybe Mr. Bush should go take another look into Mr. Putin's soul.

Hmmmnnn

 

So that he might be able to get a few pointers on despotism and running a country by fiat?

 

So that he wouldn't have to fabricate all kinds of "information" and "evidence" about WMD's and terrorist support to justify (ie pull the wool over the eyes of the aspects of governance that are still left) blatant militarism?

 

So that he could find another soul as black as his own?

 

The last one is not fair, as you can't blame the puppet for his movements...

[jdonn]

I have been LOVING the white house's quotes about this. I think my favorite came from John McCain. From CNN, 'Russia's actions, [McCain] said, must be submitted to "the court of world opinion."' Lol, Mr. Pot I would like you to meet Mr. Kettle.

[blackshoe]

White House? Since when does McCain speak from — or for — the White House?

[jdonn]

White House? Since when does McCain speak from — or for — the White House?

Who says he does? More importantly, why do you even make these posts?

[jonottawa]

Taiwan will probably be next. That's why it was so important to impeach Bush. He's robbed us of the moral high ground for at least a generation.

[P_Marlowe]

Maybe Mr. Bush should go take another look into Mr. Putin's soul.

Hmmmnnn

 

So that he might be able to get a few pointers on despotism and running a country by fiat?

 

So that he wouldn't have to fabricate all kinds of "information" and "evidence" about WMD's and terrorist support to justify (ie pull the wool over the eyes of the aspects of governance that are still left) blatant militarism?

 

So that he could find another soul as black as his own?

 

The last one is not fair, as you can't blame the puppet for his movements...

Just a simple comment.

 

What ever you may think about Putin, he was

the right man for the job, and he did a good job.

 

People seem to forget in which state Russia was

before Putin took over, I still hear the claim that

they sold nukes from the russian arsenals.

 

The financial situation of Russia was terrible as he

took over, and is not too bad now, they have work

to do, but currently it seems, that they are willing to

try to do the work.

The financial situation of the US was not too bad as

Bush took over, some would even say, it was brilliant.

... currently the financial situation is too bleak to find

words, only because China and some other "democratic"

countries in the arabic world keep the dept supscription

of the US federal reserve, the financial situation of the

US is not a complete disaster.

 

With kind regards

Marlowe

[mike777]

"The financial situation of Russia was terrible as he

took over, and is not too bad now, they have work

to do, but currently it seems, that they are willing to

try to do the work.

The financial situation of the US was not too bad as

Bush took over, some would even say, it was brilliant.

... currently the financial situation is too bleak to find

words"

 

 

 

Wow too bleak for words......who knew the USA was that bad off. Sure I knew we had problems and lots of room for improvement but too bleak for words?

 

 

.....GDP2008...IND Production...UNEMPLOYMENT...3MONTH RATES..10YRATES..MKT

usa+1.4...........+.3....................5.5.......................2.2..................4.15.......-12.7

EURO+1.7.........-1.9...................7.2......................2.39.................3.38......-23

SPAIN+1.7.........-7.3..................9.9.....................4.96..................4.95.......-16.1

RUSSIA +7.5.......+.9...................6.2....................11.0.................6.67.......-13.4

 

 

Russia is rich in Natural resouces, Natural resources prices are up alot......If Putin gets the Economic credit for that, OK....:)

[Winstonm]

"The financial situation of Russia was terrible as he

took over, and is not too bad now, they have work

to do, but currently it seems, that they are willing to

try to do the work.

The financial situation of the US was not too bad as

Bush took over, some would even say, it was brilliant.

... currently the financial situation is too bleak to find

words"

 

 

 

Wow too bleak for words......who knew the USA was that bad off. Sure I knew we had problems and lots of room for improvement but too bleak for words?

 

 

.....GDP2008...IND Production...UNEMPLOYMENT...3MONTH RATES..10YRATES..MKT

usa+1.4...........+.3....................5.5.......................2.2..................4.15.......-12.7

EURO+1.7.........-1.9...................7.2......................2.39.................3.38......-23

SPAIN+1.7.........-7.3..................9.9.....................4.96..................4.95.......-16.1

RUSSIA +7.5.......+.9...................6.2....................11.0.................6.67.......-13.4

 

 

Russia is rich in Natural resouces, Natural resources prices are up alot......If Putin gets the Economic credit for that, OK....:)

I wouldn't quote the U.S. "headline" statistics as proof of anything. Anyone who seriously cares about such matters understands that the headline numbers are seriously massaged and country-to-country comparisons cannot be made as the same methodologies are not used.

 

Sounds like you believe the George Bush line: "It's not a recession; it's an economic slowdown."

 

Right - it's not an iceberg; it's piece of frozen water.

[Echognome]

Sounds like you believe the George Bush line: "It's not a recession; it's an economic slowdown."

I'm sorry to inform you, but Bush was entirely correct in his assertion.

 

A recession is a contraction phase of the business cycle. A common rule of thumb is that a recession occurs when real gross domestic product (GDP) growth is negative for two or more consecutive quarters. In the USA, the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) defines it more broadly as "a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales."

 

At the time of Bush's quote, we didn't even have one quarter of negative growth. You may argue that the way economists measure recessions is wrong (since we are far off our recent economic growth rates, but we were not negative!), but that is aside from the point.

 

I'm certainly no supporter of Bush, but asking him the question was like showing him a banana and saying "is this purple?" and him saying "no it's yellow." Why any deal at all was made from this is beyond me.

[hrothgar]

Another good piece

 

http://www.slate.com/id/2197281/

[Winstonm]

Sounds like you believe the George Bush line: "It's not a recession; it's an economic slowdown."

I'm sorry to inform you, but Bush was entirely correct in his assertion.

 

A recession is a contraction phase of the business cycle. A common rule of thumb is that a recession occurs when real gross domestic product (GDP) growth is negative for two or more consecutive quarters. In the USA, the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) defines it more broadly as "a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales."

 

 

At the time of Bush's quote, we didn't even have one quarter of negative growth. You may argue that the way economists measure recessions is wrong (since we are far off our recent economic growth rates, but we were not negative!), but that is aside from the point

 

 

At the time of Bush's quote, we didn't even have one quarter of negative growth. You may argue that the way economists measure recessions is wrong (since we are far off our recent economic growth rates, but we were not negative!), but that is aside from the point.

 

I'm certainly no supporter of Bush, but asking him the question was like showing him a banana and saying "is this purple?" and him saying "no it's yellow." Why any deal at all was made from this is beyond me.

I understand you are a microeconomist, but then you should know that it is the NBER who determines and dates recessions, and negative growth is not a requirement (although it is usually present). The NBER is a better resource to quote in this instance than our friend Wikipedia:

 

http://www.nber.org/cycles/recessions.html

 

 

A recession is a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales. A recession begins just after the economy reaches a peak of activity and ends as the economy reaches its trough. Between trough and peak, the economy is in an expansion. Expansion is the normal state of the economy; most recessions are brief and they have been rare in recent decades.

 

 

At the time of Bush's quote, we didn't even have one quarter of negative growth.  You may argue that the way economists measure recessions is wrong (since we are far off our recent economic growth rates, but we were not negative!), but that is aside from the point.

 

I'm a little disappointed in the comment - as you must know, there is no mandate from the NBER for any negative growth in the first place - and the second place is the headline numbers you are going by are the initial numbers (which you being an economist must also know) and subject to revisions.

 

As you see, negative growth has no bearing on the timing of a recessions start, and Q4 2007 was revised downward from +0.6% to -0.2% (and that's not even the fnal revision).

 

Quoting and relying on the reported "headline" statistics is a disingineous whitewashing of reality - case in point being the "birth-death" model used to determine employment figures. And that was the point in bringing up this subject - going by headline numbers means little to nothing and proves absolutely nothing.

[mike777]

Winston pls stop

 

Once again you are making a strawman discussion

 

 

No one used the word recession but you. And now you destroy the strawman you have invented.

 

The actual discussion is over:

 

 

"... currently the financial situation is too bleak to find

words,"

 

 

"Wow too bleak for words......who knew the USA was that bad off. Sure I knew we had problems and lots of room for improvement but too bleak for words? "

 

 

 

If you have facts that the USA is in such a financial situation that is "too bleak for words" the entire point of the previous posts.........

 

OK

[Winstonm]

Winston pls stop

 

Once again you are making a strawman discussion

 

 

No one used the word recession but you. And now you destroy the strawman you have invented.

 

 

"... currently the financial situation is too bleak to find

words,"

 

 

"Wow too bleak for words......who knew the USA was that bad off. Sure I knew we had problems and lots of room for improvement but too bleak for words? "

 

 

 

If you have facts that the USA is in such a financial situation that is "too bleak for words" the entire point of the previous posts.........

 

OK

Mike, my comments have no bearing on "the ecomony being too bleak for words" quote but instead are intended to refute your post using headline statitistics of dubious merit that do not make apples to apples comparisons among countries gdp, employment figures, and other similar figures due to methodology differences.

 

If you are going to refute the statements, play fair and use apples-to-apples statistical data.

[mike777]

Winston I know you are a wonderful, intelligent and very compassionate human being.

 

My numbers are from the Economist Magazine(non USA). They run these tables for years and years, every week, see last two pages of magazine.

 

Yes, I am using these "facts" to refute " USA financials.....to bleak for words"

 

IF you have better facts...OK.....