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Another lead problem


han

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I know lead problems rarely lead to interesting discussions but here is another one:

 

AJ9x

9

KJ10

K9xxx

 

You are playing IMPs, lefty deals and passes. The auction:

 

p - p - 1NT - p

2D* - p - 3H - all pass

 

The opponents were first time partners and didn't discuss superaccepts. Your lead?

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I don't know josh's law but I do know that any lead I make could easily blow a trick, but that the trump lead seems the least likely...
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I could have doubled 1NT to show a 4-card major and a longer minor.

I'd have done that.

 

Having passed over 1NT, I'd have doubled 3. They have a 9-card fit and its IMPs, so they won't be doubling aggressively. A greater risk is that they're about to bid 4 and that my double will help them to make it, but all those partscore gains should make up for the occasional game swing out.

 

I lead a trump. Having failed to show my hand in the bidding, I may as well show it with the opening lead.

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Having passed over 1NT, I'd have doubled 3. They have a 9-card fit and its IMPs, so they won't be doubling aggressively. A greater risk is that they're about to bid 4 and that my double will help them to make it, but all those partscore gains should make up for the occasional game swing out.

I don't know what makes you think buying it for these partscores will be gains.

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For those who like to hear the results:

 

You can't make anything above 3H, the best you can hope for is 3C.

 

If you lead a black suit 3H makes. After a red suit lead 3H can be defeated.

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"When the lead of every suit could give a trick, lead trump"

or

"When there is no suit that looks likely to be running, lead trump"

or

"With good spots in all side suits, lead trump"

 

Am I close with any of them?

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For those who like to hear the results:

 

You can't make anything above 3H, the best you can hope for is 3C.

 

If you lead a black suit 3H makes. After a red suit lead 3H can be defeated.

Playing MP against GIBs I held Axxx xx J9xx ATxx. And the bidding proceeded:

 

1nt-2d-2h-3h.

 

On lead, I thought Josh's law applied here too mistaking this for an auction like 1nt-2d-3h. And I led a trump. Dummy had JT QT9xxx T 9xxx and declarer had xxxx AKx AKQx xx. With a Diamond lead, all the defense makes is two club tricks. With a trump lead, may be 3 club tricks. Banging either black suit Ace and cashing all the tricks in those suits is the preferred approach here :)

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Guest Jlall
For those who like to hear the results:

 

You can't make anything above 3H, the best you can hope for is 3C.

 

If you lead a black suit 3H makes. After a red suit lead 3H can be defeated.

Playing MP against GIBs I held Axxx xx J9xx ATxx. And the bidding proceeded:

 

1nt-2d-2h-3h.

 

On lead, I thought Josh's law applied here too mistaking this for an auction like 1nt-2d-3h. And I led a trump. Dummy had JT QT9xxx T 9xxx and declarer had xxxx AKx AKQx xx. With a Diamond lead, all the defense makes is two club tricks. With a trump lead, may be 3 club tricks. Banging either black suit Ace and cashing all the tricks in those suits is the preferred approach here :)

Are you suggesting that banging down an ace is the correct thing to do here? If so I definitely disagree but I would prefer a diamond to a heart.

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For those who like to hear the results:

 

You can't make anything above 3H, the best you can hope for is 3C.

 

If you lead a black suit 3H makes. After a red suit lead 3H can be defeated.

Playing MP against GIBs I held Axxx xx J9xx ATxx. And the bidding proceeded:

 

1nt-2d-2h-3h.

 

On lead, I thought Josh's law applied here too mistaking this for an auction like 1nt-2d-3h. And I led a trump. Dummy had JT QT9xxx T 9xxx and declarer had xxxx AKx AKQx xx. With a Diamond lead, all the defense makes is two club tricks. With a trump lead, may be 3 club tricks. Banging either black suit Ace and cashing all the tricks in those suits is the preferred approach here :)

Are you suggesting that banging down an ace is the correct thing to do here? If so I definitely disagree but I would prefer a diamond to a heart.

May be you missed the :) :) B) :P ?

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