Win or duck T1 ?

[sathyab]

[hv=d=n&v=n&n=s4hq82dqj74cj8732&s=sak87hakj5dat6ck9]133|200|Scoring: MP[/hv]

 

From the 1st qualifying session in LM pairs in Las Vegas. The Bidding:

 

p-(p)-2c-(2s)

p-(p)-2nt-(p)

3nt

 

Lead is the ♠Q. Opponents appear to be experienced, but you don't have any idea if they're experts or not.

 

My thoughts at the table were: ♦K and ♣A are two key cards and chances are LHO has one of them, she might have bid 3s at these colors lacking both. If she has the ♦K, it's probably right to win the first trick, knock out the ♦K and eventually lead toward ♣K. If the ♦K is in the East hand, winning the first trick is wrong as LHO's spades are established immediately and she has the ♣A for an entry, restricting me to 2♠, 4♥ and 3♦ for a mere nine tricks. Also if I duck the first trick, I might be able to throw in LHO to lead away from the ♣A. I'm assuming here that LHO has only six spades not seven.

 

What's your plan ? Do you win the first trick or duck ?

[han]

Would you mind not posting any more hands from the first session? I misplayed this hand very badly and I didn't realize just how badly until dinner.

[gnasher]

If [LHO] has the ♦K, it's probably right to win the first trick, knock out the ♦K and eventually lead toward ♣K.

I don't see why that would make it right to win the first spade. If LHO has ♦K and RHO ♣A, you're going to make 10 tricks with this line regardless of whether you've ducked the first spade.

 

I'd duck the first spade, because I can't think of any reason not to. I also can't see how leading diamonds from dummy is supposed to help, and it risks the humiliation of ♥Q, ♦Q winning, ♦10 losing, so I'd play diamonds from the top.

 

If RHO wins this and plays a club, I'll probably play the king - leading from the queen into that dummy probably wouldn't seem very attractive.

[sathyab]

If [LHO] has the ♦K, it's probably right to win the first trick, knock out the ♦K and eventually lead toward ♣K.

I don't see why that would make it right to win the first spade. If LHO has ♦K and RHO ♣A, you're going to make 10 tricks with this line regardless of whether you've ducked the first spade.

 

I'd duck the first spade, because I can't think of any reason not to. I also can't see how leading diamonds from dummy is supposed to help, and it risks the humiliation of ♥Q, ♦Q winning, ♦10 losing, so I'd play diamonds from the top.

 

If RHO wins this and plays a club, I'll probably play the king - leading from the queen into that dummy probably wouldn't seem very attractive.

Regardless of whether you ducked or won the spade, you were not going to waste dummy's ♥Q entry to play Diamonds. So you duck the first spade and start Diamonds from the top. LHO follows suit with the ♦9 to the first trick and discards the ♣T on the next playing standard signals. RHO ducks the second Diamond.

[dicklont]

♣10?

I guess you can make him pay for that, play ♣K and take over ♣9 when you regain the lead. End with 11 tricks.

[ashdown4]

At the table I thought one good reason to duck this trick was that LHO who bid 3S without S9 or ST might not be able to continue suit (or might quash partner's s9).

A switch would be helpful. This ploy did not work :) LHO played s9.

 

I am hazy as to whether it is better to play diamonds from the top or work on clubs. Much depends on whether you think +600 is valuable because some people are collecting 300s and 500s. Playing on diamonds guarantees a plus but makes it very risky to try for 630.

 

Contrary to my at the table expectations recaps show very few 300s and 500s. The

goal was 630.

[sathyab]

At the table I thought one good reason to duck this trick was that LHO who bid 3S without S9 or ST might not be able to continue suit (or might quash partner's s9).

A switch would be helpful. This ploy did not work  :)  LHO played s9. 

 

I am hazy as to whether it is better to play diamonds from the top or work on clubs. Much depends on whether you think +600 is valuable because some people are collecting 300s and 500s. Playing on diamonds guarantees a plus but makes it very risky to try for 630.

 

Contrary to my at the table expectations recaps show very few 300s and 500s. The

goal was 630.

If LHO bid 3s then even after ducking the first spade, you can still make ten tricks. Playing Diamonds from the top, LHO shows out on the second Diamond and RHO ducks. If you continue Diamonds now, RHO establishes a long Diamond trick with the Ace of clubs as entry, which together with the first spade trick totals to four tricks for the defense, which you know has to be the absolute minimum score with your side playing. Instead cash your major suit tricks now and come down a four card ending with ♦QJ and ♣J8 in dummy and ♠x ♦x and ♣K9 in hand. RHO is strip-squeezed in the minors and forced to reduce to ♦Kx and ♣AQ as otherwise you can establish a club trick. Now a Diamond to him and you score two more tricks. The full hand is:

 

[hv=d=n&v=n&n=s4hq82dqj74cj8732&w=sqjt932ht973d9ct4&e=s65h64dk8532caq65&s=sak87hakj5dat6ck9]399|300|Scoring: MP[/hv]

 

Thanks to the 2s bid I got this completely wrong and made only nine tricks

 

BTW, Deep Finesse claims that you can make 11 tricks ! It looks as though the best you can do is ten tricks if you duck the first trick. But even if you win the first trick it's hard to see how you make eleven.

[sathyab]

Oops ! In the line of play above, RHO can come down stiff ♦K and ♣AQx and the defense can score four tricks ! I don't know how you make ten after ducking the first spade :)

[Guest Jlall]

But even if you win the first trick it's hard to see how you make eleven.

just play AK of spade, AK of hearts, club king and drive out the clubs.