Percentage Play?

[kfay]

[hv=d=s&v=n&n=skqxxxh8xdj108caqj&s=sa10xhaj9xdq9xcxxx]133|200|Scoring: MP

1♣-(1♥)-1♠-(P)

1NT-(P)-2♥-P

2♠-(P)-3NT-ALL PASS[/hv]

 

I chose to open 1♣ with S. Feel free to comment on the bidding.

 

Lead: Low ♥ to the Q and A.

T2: ♣, low, Jack, King.

T3: ♥, low, 10, dummy's

T4: ♥K, ♦, encouraging diamond, ♥

T5: ♥, ♦, ♦, ♥J.

T6: ♣, all follow.

T7: ♠K, low, low, 7.

 

Thoughts?

[Apollo81]

I can't think of a reason not to play for 3-2 spades. I think opening S is too aggressive.

[kfay]

I can't think of a reason not to play for 3-2 spades. I think opening S is too aggressive.

Yeah I didn't like my opening. But turns out I did have the ♦Q so 11HCP... not 10... not much better.

[ArtK78]

Somehow you wound up in the top spot of 3NT despite finding the 8 card spade fit.

 

And, as the ♣K is offside, you know that there are 4 inescapable losers in 4♠.

 

You know that LHO has 5 hearts and at least 2 clubs. You know that RHO has 2 hearts and at least 2 clubs. If I had to decide whether to play for a 4-1 break or a 3-2 break in the spade suit, I would probably lean towards the 3-2 break.

 

However, even if the spades are 3-2, the chance that the ♠J is in RHO's hand is still 60%. Combine that with the possibility of a 4-1 spade break, and your odds for finessing the spade are pretty good.

 

HOWEVER, if you play for 3-2 spades and you are wrong, you still make 8 tricks and tie all of the pairs in 4♠-1. But if you play for 4-1 spades and are wrong, you will lose to all of those pairs.

 

So, play for 3-2 spades. If you are right, you get a near top. If you are wrong, you will still get a reasonable score for taking 8 tricks in 3NT.

[SoTired]

I think you miscounted our tricks on a 4-1 spade break. 3s+2h+2c = 7. After taking 3s, the opps are getting the rest. We won't get a diam trick because the opps have 3h+2d+1c. (I am sure LHO has a diam honor, otherwise RHO would have found a bid over 1S with 13 HCP.) But that is OK, because then 4S also goes down 2. If we take a spade finesse and it loses, we go down 3 when most others are in 4S down 1.

 

So...

Playing for 3-2 break when right get top, when wrong get avg

Playing for 4-1 break when right get top, when wrong get zero.

 

Seems like an easy decision to me....

[rogerclee]

I think you guys are underestimating the likelihood that the field gets to game on these cards. Most souths will not open, and I think I would get to only 2♠.

 

Anyway I agree there is no need to try to be a genius here. It is true that with so few in HCP, LHO is more likely to have good shape, but it is just not enough to take such a strange spade play.

[han]

Anyway I agree there is no need to try to be a genius here.

Agree.

[gnasher]

In adition to the reasons already given for not doing something daft:

- With J9xx Qx Kxx Kxxx East might have bid 1NT over 1♠. Make ♦K the ace and it becomes even more likely.

- With x K10xxx Hxxx xxx some Wests would bid 2♥ over 1♣, but they probably wouldn't with Jx K10xxx Hxx xxx.

[dburn]

Some consideration might be given to East's apparent competence. With four spades to the jack and the king of clubs, he could have beaten you by ducking the first club trick - you would play a spade to the ace and repeat the club finesse, would you not? Since he did not follow this line of defence, he should not have that hand, wherefore you should not play him for it.

 

Of course, as other contributors have suggested, you should not play him for it anyway - even though West has five hearts and East two, West will have Jx or Jxx of spades much more often than a small singleton. Curiously, with this particular layout West will have Jx and Jxx equally often - that is, about 15.9% of the time for each combination and 31.8% of the time in all. He will have a small singleton only about 18.2% of the time, making it clear to play for the drop.

[sathyab]

LHO's decision not to cash-out needs consideration. Didn't they have 2♥, 2♦ and 1♣ for a one-trick set ? Or is it possible that West placed you with the ♦K for your opening and his partner with the Q and therefore unsure of how many tricks his side had ? May be he thinks you have 3♠, 2♥ and 3♣ tricks and therefore cashing the ♦A might present you with the game going trick whereas left to yourself you couldn't make four spade tricks without conceding a trick to the defense ?

[gnasher]

Some consideration might be given to East's apparent competence. With four spades to the jack and the king of clubs, he could have beaten you by ducking the first club trick

Regardless of his spade holding, couldn't he beat us by winning the clubs and playing a heart? East isn't the one whose competence is in doubt.

[Guest Jlall]

There is no reason at all to play for 4-1 spades.

[ceeb]

Peter Weichsel finessed (correctly) against me in this position once. My partner had defended in a certain fashion. I asked Weichsel how he guessed. "The man's wearing a hat," he said. "A man's wearing a hat, you've got to figure he knows what he's doing."

 

After RHO discards on the 3rd heart, West can see that at least four tricks will be accounted for by hearts, at least three by the AQJ of clubs. If West has 2 or 3 spades then he is playing an awfully deep game if he doesn't also reckon on five rounds of spades. That leaves only one possible trick in diamonds, so why didn't West simply cash his ace? By not doing so he took some risk it could disappear and some risk of the actual lie, that the second defensive diamond trick could disappear.

 

So if you think West is capable of counting tricks you should finesse the spade, and the answer to the question in the subject line is No, this is not a percentage play situation.

 

(Actually the deep game idea doesn't hold water, because even if West holds ♠Jx he cannot know that we have a finessing option.)

[gnasher]

After RHO discards on the 3rd heart, West can see that at least four tricks will be accounted for by hearts, at least three by the AQJ of clubs. If West has 2 or 3 spades then he is playing an awfully deep game if he doesn't also reckon on five rounds of spades. That leaves only one possible trick in diamonds, so why didn't West simply cash his ace?

With either Jx K10xxx Axx xxx or x K10xxx Axxx xxx West should have cashed ♦A. In either case, from his point of view, we could have five spade tricks, and he knows from his partner's discard that there are two diamond tricks to take.

 

The only thing we can infer from West's heart continuation is that he's an idiot.

[ceeb]

After RHO discards on the 3rd heart, West can see that at least four tricks will be accounted for by hearts, at least three by the AQJ of clubs. If West has 2 or 3 spades then he is playing an awfully deep game if he doesn't also reckon on five rounds of spades. That leaves only one possible trick in diamonds, so why didn't West simply cash his ace?

With either Jx K10xxx Axx xxx or x K10xxx Axxx xxx West should have cashed ♦A. In either case, from his point of view, we could have five spade tricks, and he knows from his partner's discard that there are two diamond tricks to take.

 

The only thing we can infer from West's heart continuation is that he's an idiot.

Fair point -- although if West has ♠x declarer is an underdog to hold running spades.

 

I was having trouble figuring out East's ♦ come-on, which is not a play one commonly makes with ♦K7632 over dummy's J108. Maybe it means that East figured out the spades are running if West has the ♦A, and that West will ignore the signal if holding ♠A.