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Lead Problem


Guest Jlall

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Guest Jlall

Ax Qxx Qxx KT76x

 

1C on your right, 2C inverted on left, 2N on right, 3N on left. Opps have no agreements other than inverted minors. What do you lead and why?

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Partner has so little over there. I kind of hate all of my leads. I want to go as passive as I can if possible. If I had Axx of spades, I'd lead my x, but with Ax it seems like I'm very likely to be on lead again. A of spades seems so donk as I'd feel really foolish if dummy had like Qxx and declarer had Kx. However, either red suit x is likely to give away a guess on the Q. The club suit seems the worst of all. I'm really debating between a red Q and the spade A. Yuck! I think I'm going to go with the HQ. It has some deceptive appeal.
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Q. Pard can only have so much and my club suit is going to be exposed very quickly. I think our best chance is to catch RHO with Ax and dummy with Jxx or something like that. A low diamond appears to cater to dummy having Ax, but the suit may get tangled up.
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Our club holding strongly suggests that RHO has a balanced minimum with 3 clubs... LHO lacks a 4 card major, but could easily be 3=3 and opener could easily be 4=4. Heck, for all we know, partner has 6 diamonds, while it is less likely that he has a long major... I'd like to know if rho opens 1 with 1444 or 4144, but most NA's (and maybe most others) open that shape 1.

 

Since I need to hit partner's length and strength, if possible, diamonds seem clear.

 

Next question: which diamond? I am going to be on lead again, fairly shortly, and partner will probably have no easy entry.

 

It's a bit of a tossup. I tend to dislike spectacular leads, and we may need only 2 diamond tricks to go plus.. and it is easy to see layouts where the Q lead holds us to one, while a low one nets us 2. But, on this hand, I go with the Queen... it wouldn't take much to persuade me to lead low.

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Major suit lead is out, they have them stopped on right and maybe on left as well and my partner has very little help except maybe diamond length. If diamonds are stopped, they are stopped on left. I am leading a diamond and was leading a low diamond at first but some other posters are suggesting the Q. I like that but would not have thought of it at the table.
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Guest Jlall
Results: Diamond was the winner. RHO had no diamond stopper, I think that is the compelling reason to lead diamonds since RHO won't bid 2N without a major suit stopper probably. I don't see any good reasons to lead the queen still, it's a little too genius for me.
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I like the A of S lead. Declarer might finesse the wrong way just to keep partner off lead. When i have all the values (I know partner is broke) and i have no safe lead I try to make the lead that i would have done if i were broke and partner had all the values.

 

Also Declarer will probably know quickly that i have 5C so with Hxx vs Hxx in S he wont go wrong.

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