Suit combination

[awm]

Here's an amusing hand from Vegas. This is probably one of the hands I played best there, the other being a 3NT contract making six where we lost the board at BAM because teammates went for 1100:

 

[hv=d=s&v=n&n=st9xxhaxxxdqxcaqx&s=sqxhkqxdat98xckxx]133|200|Scoring: IMP[/hv]

 

We had a rather boring auction to 3NT (south opened 1NT 14-16, north looked for a major suit fit). The opening lead was a fourth-best club. The key to this hand is obviously the diamond suit. What's the right play?

 

More details in hidden text:

 

 

If you let the diamond queen ride on the first round, it holds the trick!

 

[Guest Jlall]

I would just play queen of diamonds and diamond to the ten. This is the percentage play in a vacuum and gives me an extra chance of 3-3 hearts if diamonds don't come in for me. You could certainly create a set of circumstances where I'd think RHO wouldn't do this with KJxx and LHO would do this with Kx though. Playing a spade is an option after the diamond queen lives but loses to the opps being able to run spades now when LHO has Kxx of diamonds for example, and only gains rarely.

[gwnn]

isn't this the equivalent of Fred's combination?

[andy_h]

isn't this the equivalent of Fred's combination?

No, I don't think so. Presuming you're referring to the Ax opp QT987, it's entirely different to this one.

 

Anyways, intuitively I think I would run the Q and if that holds a diamond to the Ace. If no diamond honours have appeared maybe I'll lead the HQ to see if the opps will give count..

[cherdano]

After the queen holds, both diamond to the ten and diamond to the ace retain the extra chance in hearts.

I would think that

- RHO will pretty much always duck the queen with Kxxx

- LHO will hardly ever duck with Kx, but

- I don't know how often RHO would play low twice with KJxx.

If you think RHO would duck with KJxx more than 2/3 of the time, you should play a diamond to the ten, otherwise a diamond to the ace. Against most opponents I would play the ace for sure (esp. if RHO ducked smoothly), but against good opponents the ten is probably right.

[pclayton]

The ♦Q is a good start.

 

Kx with LHO seems remote to me - its not like I don't have a lot of entries to the closed hand, and what is LHO catering to by ducking? Is he thinking I will switch suits so that partner can win and play a 2nd club?

 

LHO more likely ducked from Kxx, but Kxxx / KJxx in RHO seem more likely.

 

(Arend): After the queen holds, both diamond to the ten and diamond to the ace retain the extra chance in hearts.

 

While this is true about hearts, it loses chances in diamonds. If we play a ♦ to the Ace, while we can check for 3-3 hearts are hope for 4♥ / 2♦ / 3♣ we lose our chances in diamonds if RHO did find the double duck from ♦KJxx (versus LHO laying off with Kxx), since we can't safely check for 3-3 - since the opps can take 3♠ / 2♦.

 

So lets play a ♦ to the 10. It retains control of diamonds when LHO does win the King from Kxx. If LHO wins the J (and it appears RHO does have Kxxx), we will have some interesting endgame possibilities when RHO is say 5242 or 4243.

[awm]

It's actually an interesting position after the ♦Q holds. Of course at this point you can pick up any 3-3 diamond break, so the interesting positions are:

 

(1) RHO has KJxx and LHO xx

 

(2) RHO has Kxxx and LHO Jx

 

In a vacuum, case (1) is more likely by about 3:2. But it seems like RHO might cover the queen of diamonds with KJxx since failure to do so could blow a tempo very easily. In my experience usually players cover an honor from dummy when holding both surrounding cards, although given the actual lie of the diamond suit ducking the trick would be a good play.

 

I chose to play a diamond to the ace next, felling the (now-singleton) jack from LHO's hand. Finessing the diamond into the jack turns out not to work so well (hearts are 4-2) and declarer at the other table went down on this hand on a similar line.

[pclayton]

It's actually an interesting position after the ♦Q holds. Of course at this point you can pick up any 3-3 diamond break, so the interesting positions are:

 

(1) RHO has KJxx and LHO xx

 

(2) RHO has Kxxx and LHO Jx

 

In a vacuum, case (1) is more likely by about 3:2. But it seems like RHO might cover the queen of diamonds with KJxx since failure to do so could blow a tempo very easily. In my experience usually players cover an honor from dummy when holding both surrounding cards, although given the actual lie of the diamond suit ducking the trick would be a good play.

 

I chose to play a diamond to the ace next, felling the (now-singleton) jack from LHO's hand. Finessing the diamond into the jack turns out not to work so well (hearts are 4-2) and declarer at the other table went down on this hand on a similar line.

What was the entire hand?

[Guest Jlall]

It's actually an interesting position after the ♦Q holds. Of course at this point you can pick up any 3-3 diamond break, so the interesting positions are:

 

(1) RHO has KJxx and LHO xx

 

(2) RHO has Kxxx and LHO Jx

 

In a vacuum, case (1) is more likely by about 3:2. But it seems like RHO might cover the queen of diamonds with KJxx since failure to do so could blow a tempo very easily. In my experience usually players cover an honor from dummy when holding both surrounding cards, although given the actual lie of the diamond suit ducking the trick would be a good play.

 

I chose to play a diamond to the ace next, felling the (now-singleton) jack from LHO's hand. Finessing the diamond into the jack turns out not to work so well (hearts are 4-2) and declarer at the other table went down on this hand on a similar line.

Your analysis doesn't include the fact that you still make about a third of the time when LHO has Jx, so you are giving up a big math edge. I agree that against a bad RHO you made the right play though.