pass or pull?

[jillybean]

Dealer: North Vul: NS Scoring: IMP ♠ A872 ♥ QT76543 ♦ 7 ♣ 4

 

West North East South

 

 -     1♦    Pass  1♥

 2♣    2♥    3♣    4♥

 5♣    Dbl   Pass  ? 

 

Do you agree with the bidding so far, what now?

[NickRW]

Tough one. I showed this to the family and their reaction was to pull. I was frankly torn - and might quite likely pull at the table - but there again that ace of spades is winking at me as a defensive trick.

 

There are hands that partner could plausibly hold where 5♥ is a make. And there are also plausible hands for opps where 5♣ is a make - which might suggest pulling as you're only really wrong when neither contract makes. However, on reflection, it seems to me that the chances that both contracts don't make is better than 50%. So, although there may be times where the double presents them with a bonus because they make, I think I go for the penalty - it seems the surer route to Plusville

 

Nick

 

P.S. Later edit - don't see anything wrong with your bidding thus far - 4♥ must have reasonable chances.

[jtfanclub]

5♥ if we're playing support doubles, pass if we aren't. :(

[benlessard]

Pull. 5H might make

 

I think I go for the penalty - it seems the surer route to Plusville

we are in IMPs.

[goobers]

dislike the bidding, i would have preferred LHO not to have bid 5C

[hotShot]

It's close, but I pull because:

 

I am very unbalanced, partner has a lot of red cards in his hand and we have an 10-11 card fit.

I'm pretty sure that opps are unbalanced in a similar way. I won't be surprised if opps can make 5♣ while we can make 5♥. In fact I don't really see them down 3 and that's what we need if 5♥ makes.

 

Unfortunately it's also possible that both sides can only make 4(3), and we could lose a few IMPS for being down in 5.

 

The only thing that could keep me from pulling is, if partner is known to bid 6/7, if I pull. Not only GIB would do that.

[skjaeran]

I expect us to make at least ten tricks here and the opponents to make at least nine tricks, more probably ten (or more).

 

At IMPs I don't consider this a problem - I'm always pulling. This will be a big winner every time at least one side can make a 5-level contract. I believe that's happening close to 50% of the time, and then pulling is a BIG long term winner.

[NickRW]

Pull. 5H might make

 

I think I go for the penalty - it seems the surer route to Plusville

we are in IMPs.

Yes, I know we are. What do you want, even playing IMPS, a 5♥ that for sure might make, but may, overall, be barely showing a profit versus a penalty that is nearly always plus and has some chances itself to be quite profitable but sometimes shows a sizable minus? When I said "Plusville" I meant overall profit, not percentage of times we get some sort of plus.

 

I think the decision is very close anyway.

 

Nick

[rogerclee]

5♥, this is too likely to make (and if not, they are too likely to make). Also if partner is inexperienced, he might have read my 4♥ bid as showing values or something, so this seems like a good safety play.

[andy_h]

I pull.

[mikeh]

It is important to understand the message partner was conveying when he doubled 5♣. We are red v white, and have just voluntarily bid a game, so the opps, even if they can make 5♣, are assumed to be saving, and N was in a forcing pass seat. He had to double unless he had extra offence... this is not a penalty double because our auction (with which I heartily agree) announced ownership of the hand.

 

While I would expect to go plus on defence opposite partner's likely 2=4=5=2 or 3=4=4=2 minimums, it is tough to come up with hands on which we go plus on defence and have poor play for a plus on offence, assuming he has 4 hearts.

 

I mean, a typical double could include Kx KJxx KQJxx xx... and here 5♥ is cold and we will do well to get 300 out of the opps (no one is getting a spade ruff here).

 

I think 5♥ is clear.

 

BTW, while the LOTT tends to break down on freaks, we can also consider that the total tricks rates to be about 21, so if they make 10 tricks, we make 11 and so on... if we make 10, they make 11. I am not a LOTT fanatic but I do keep in it mind on some hands, and, here, it confirms or supports my experience-based view.

[P_Marlowe]

5H, and the bidding up to now was fine.

 

With kind regards

Marlowe

[ArcLight]

Pull to 5♥

 

long explanation below

 

IF we assume a 50% sucess rate then

 

50% * 12 IMPs - 50%*3 Imps = expected return 4.5 IMPs vs 3 IMPs if we wet them doubled 1.

Thus its worth pulling.

Unless we expected to set them 2, then its 7 IMPS. If its 50/50 taht we set them 1 or 2, then the expected gain is 5 IMPS from Doubling vs 4.5 from pulling.

 

All this is too close. Are we sure its 50% vs 45%? Etc.

 

The one factor infavor of pulling is pard will not expect us to have this hand. He is probably thinking we have more defense, and probably (maybe) a heart trick.

 

I think Clubs are 6-4 or even 7-3. Pard has 2.

Assuming support doubles, pard has 4 hearts, so the hearts are 1/1 or 0/2.

 

Pard hand is probably 2=4=5=2

 

They are losing a spade, maybe a heart, and probably a dime or two or three.

I very much doubt they are maing. They are very likely down 1 or 2.

 

I think pard has more than a minimum to make the penalty double.

 

To make, we have a club loser, maybe a spade loser (unless pard has the K), and maybe a dime or a heart.

 

While I think our odds of making are better than 50%, I also think we have a good chance of setting them more than 1. Even so, I pull.

 

Kx - Axxx - xxxxx - xx in pards hand and we make if the hearts are 1-1.

Pard could have

xx - Axxx - Axxxx - xx

or

xx - Kxxx - KQxxx - xx

and we can make

 

If pard has

Kx - Axxx - Axxxx - xx

we make 12 if hearts are 1/1

[jtfanclub]

BTW, while the LOTT tends to break down on freaks, we can also consider that the total tricks rates to be about 21, so if they make 10 tricks, we make 11 and so on... if we make 10, they make 11. I am not a LOTT fanatic but I do keep in it mind on some hands, and, here, it confirms or supports my experience-based view.

Well, sorry to insist, but....

 

If you are NOT playing support doubles, I think the X makes it likely partner is 1354. Partner's double pretty much shows that he bid previously with 3 card support, and while I suppose he could be 2353 or the like, I prefer having a singleton to raise partner with 3 card support. Somehow, I don't think he just doubled with a singleton club!

 

So if that's true, then total tricks is only 18. 5♥ is going to depend on the strength of his hearts, but I'll wager that you have more than 5 tricks in clubs. 800 is certainly not the highest possible score on this.

 

Now, you may be shocked that somebody would bid 5♣ when they only have an 8 card fit, but they can see the vulnerability too. They see this is a free push, and they're probably right. It's very difficult to leave in 5 clubs doubled when they're green. And they could have a 9 card fit. But I'm betting here that TT isn't 20.

 

So when not playing support doubles, I think it's a very close decision. Oddly enough, I'm more likely to pass because it's IMPs. I think the most likely cases are -500 and -800 for them. -500 is -3 IMPs vs. 5♥=. -800 is +4 IMPs. So I have to be right a little under half the time...and that's only if 5♥ makes. If 5♥ goes down, I'm sure happy I passed!

 

If you are playing support doubles, then you gotta bid 5♥. Not only does it change the meaning of 2♥, but it effectively changes the meaning of the X, since 'nothing extra on offense' is now 4 card support, not 3 with shortness outside of clubs.

[jillybean]

It is important to understand the message partner was conveying when he doubled 5♣. We are red v white, and have just voluntarily bid a game, so the opps, even if they can make 5♣, are assumed to be saving, and N was in a forcing pass seat. He had to double unless he had extra offence... this is not a penalty double because our auction (with which I heartily agree) announced ownership of the hand.

 

While I would expect to go plus on defence opposite partner's likely 2=4=5=2 or 3=4=4=2 minimums, it is tough to come up with hands on which we go plus on defence and have poor play for a plus on offence, assuming he has 4 hearts.

 

I mean, a typical double could include Kx KJxx KQJxx xx... and here 5♥ is cold and we will do well to get 300 out of the opps (no one is getting a spade ruff here).

 

I think 5♥ is clear.

 

BTW, while the LOTT tends to break down on freaks, we can also consider that the total tricks rates to be about 21, so if they make 10 tricks, we make 11 and so on... if we make 10, they make 11. I am not a LOTT fanatic but I do keep in it mind on some hands, and, here, it confirms or supports my experience-based view.

Mike,

 

Im not sure I understand this forcing pass, X not penalty here.

If North had interest in defending would he pass (forcing pass) 5♣ and leave the decision to partner , double (penalty) or bid?

 

If partner doubles and it is not for penalty then it is sending a clear message that the hand is ours, convert this to penalty at your own risk?

 

Here's the full hand

 

[hv=d=n&v=n&n=skj54hak9d963cj85&w=sq63h8dakj2cqt962&e=st9hj2dqt854cak73&s=sa872hqt76543d7c4]399|300|Scoring: IMP[/hv]

 

West North East South

 

 -     1♦    Pass  1♥

 2♣    2♥    3♣    4♥

 5♣    Dbl   Pass  5♥

 Pass  Pass  Pass  

 

I wonder what my partner thought the X was, 5♥ made with the ♠ finesse.

[jtfanclub]

I wonder what my partner thought the X was

I'm more curious as to what he thought 2♥ was.

 

Sounds to me like he first decided that AKx was 4 card support, then he changed his mind later and decided it was 3 card support.

[jillybean]

I wonder what my partner thought the X was

I'm more curious as to what he thought 2♥ was.

 

Sounds to me like he first decided that AKx was 4 card support, then he changed his mind later and decided it was 3 card support.

?

[jtfanclub]

?

It's a 4333 hand. You don't generally raise what could be a 4 card suit with 3 card support and a four-triple three, do you? Especially when there's an unbid major your partner might have that you have 4 of.

 

So it looks like partner loved his AKx enough that he decided to add a card and call it a 4433 hand. Fine. But over the forcing 5 club bid, there's no reason to double any more. Double here says "if you bid 5♥, don't expect any help from me beyond what I've shown". But if he considered the heart suit good enough to bid 2♥ the first time, surely it's good enough to pass the second time around.

 

So he changed his mind. He went from saying "I love my heart support" (because that's the only reason that he could drag a free bid out of this) to saying "I hate my heart support". This gave a picture of a very different hand.

 

It's like those people who open 1 club first hand, partner responds a heart, and they pass, because they first decided that the hand was worth an opening bid and they changed their mind.

[skjaeran]

Your partner probably double because he had a clear minimum, and didn't want you to make a bid at the 5-level, being afraid you'd go down.

 

This is wrong thinking. He should see that he's got no wasted values in the opponent suit, and that all he's got will be of value to you. Thus he should make a forcing pass, and let you make the final decision with the best possible information. (He should have 4-card support here, but AKx is still great.)

[ArcLight]

1. I dont like Norths opening bid.

 

2. Why did North open 1♦ instead of 1♣ with 3-3? Both suits are poor anyway.

 

3. West really bid 5 Clubs with that hand?

[Quantumcat]

Lott: EW have probably 9 clubs, and we have probably 10 hearts. 19 tricks. If 11 for us, they will get 8 tricks for +500 instead of +650 for bidding, so you want to bid. If 11 for them, -650/-500 for passing/bidding, so want to bid, again. But if neither side can make a 5 level contract, you want to pass for a positive.

 

Looking at the actual hands, we take 3 tricks in 5C, and 11 tricks in 5H. 21 tricks total! I guess because of the extreme distribution.

[benlessard]

Looking at the actual hands, we take 3 tricks in 5C, and 11 tricks in 5H. 21 tricks total! I guess because of the extreme distribution

After the 3 level its better to rely on your judgement then to rely on the LOTT whatever your level of play.

[mikeh]

Im not sure I understand this forcing pass, X not penalty here.

If North had interest in defending would he pass (forcing pass) 5♣ and leave the decision to partner , double (penalty)  or bid?

 

If partner doubles and it is not for penalty then it is sending a clear message that the hand is ours, convert this to penalty at your own risk?

 

Some 'penalty doubles' are clear expressions of doubt that the opponents can make their contract. Partner opens 1♠, rho overcalls a natural 1N and you are looking at a balanced 11 count... your double is unambiguously penalty.. in no way does it express any view of what your side can make.. only that you are confident that defending 1N x'd is the best spot.

 

By contrast, when we are in a competitive auction, and the opps have bid an apparent sacrifice and we are next to bid... when we are in a forcing pass situation, our possible calls are:

 

1. Bid on.. either a cue or our suit... a clear expression that we think, based on current information, that we are in a position to and do decide that bidding on is better than defending a doubled save

 

2. Pass: forcing. Standard usage is to play this as saying that we don't know which is best: bidding on or defending, and we are involving partner. Note that an increasing number of expert pairs now invert the meaning of double and pass...such that pass suggests defending, allowing partner, who is expected to double, to bid on with a real offensive surprise and double suggests bidding on but allows partner to pass with a defensive surprise or a really poor offensive hand in context.

 

3. Double. This is a 'penalty double' but is NOT necessarily and won't usually be based on having a great defensive hand.. it is based on having a poor offensive hand. It is not so much a comment on their contract as it is a comment on the chances of our making our contract if we bid on.

 

Let's say they bid 5♣ over our 4♥. We might double because they are idiots who are going for a telephone number. Or we might double because we don't want partner to bid 5♥ unless he has a really really strong reason for doing so. The example hand in the OP has two really really strong reasons for doing so :( It has extra offence, in the form of a 7 card suit when we might bid the same way on a 4 or 5 card suit, and it has negative defence, given that we established a game force power auction (well, power but not overwhelming.. no slam interest) by bidding 4♥.. the correct value bid but a bid that suggests more hcp (hence more defence) than we hold. There is no way for partner to tell these doubles apart (in the bad old days, a loud, fast double would be penalty and a soft or slow double would be 'I don't think we can make').

 

Since we cannot distinguish these doubles and since experienced opps will more often be saving accurately than stupidly, we need the 'I don't think we can make 5♥' double more than the 'they've made a mistake' double.

 

Most experienced pairs, when discussing fp sequences, recognize that their methods may (will) sometimes require that they double a making contract. Anytime the opps are apparently saving, and we don't think we can make our contract if we bid on, we are going to double and once in a while the contract we double will be cold.

 

That's simply a cost of doing business.

 

The double here is a 'don't bid 5♥ double'. So, it is 'penalty' in the sense that it is intended to be passed (altho that is NOT an absolute command), but it is not 'penalty' in the sense that we expect to beat their contract more than the value of our game.

[jillybean]

There is no way for partner to tell these doubles apart (in the bad old days, a loud, fast double would be penalty and a soft or slow double would be 'I don't think we can make').

 

LOL maybe I could still have my partner kick me.

Thanks for the detailed explanation, here are 2 more hands - I will post the full hands later.

 

Hand1: North has a forcing pass here?

 

Dealer: South Vul: None Scoring: IMP ♠ 4 ♥ AKQT632 ♦ QT ♣ K52

 

West North East South

 

 -     -     -     1♥

 Pass  2♥    3♣    4♥

 5♣    Pass  Pass  5♥

 Pass  Pass  Dbl   Pass

 Pass  Pass  

 

 

Hand2:

Dealer: North Vul: EW Scoring: IMP ♠ A97 ♥ AJ952 ♦ 8 ♣ K854

 

West North East South

 

 -     Pass  3♦    Dbl

 5♦    Pass  Pass  Dbl

 Pass  5♠    Pass  Pass

 Pass  

[mikeh]

Whether a particular auction creates a FP is a matter of agrement: Kokish and Kantat, probably the leading theorists of the past 30 years, disagree on some fp auctions.

 

1. Not commonly a fp. S's 4♥ could be a semi-preemptive move, and thus not announcing ownership of the hand.

 

2. When the opps are vul and we are not, few would play this sequence (3♦ x 5♦) as a fp. Some players play that this would be fp if NS were red and EW white, but I am not one of them.

 

So, for me, neither of these are fp situations.