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Is this game biddable?


the hog

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[hv=n=sxxhkqxdtxxxxcxxx&s=sakqxxxhxxdkqxxcx]133|200|[/hv]

 

Our bidding was

1S (2C) P (3C)

x (P) 3D (P)

3S

all pass

 

2C was alerted as a sound overcall and 3C was alerted on my side of the screen as good C support, inv to 3N.

 

It was bid at the other table.

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Ron,

 

You didn't state the condition of contest nor the vulnerability. But at imps and especially vul, I would carry on to 4. Why? North could have no tricks and no spades. And yet partner forced you to bid over 3 and presumably didn't like all that much as he bid 3. But if he had - hand he could have bid 3 either immediately or over 3. So, I think he is showing a good game try with his choice of auction. Your hand as two likely tricks for him (KQ), so I would be right in there and bid the game.

 

At matchpoints, I would be less likely to bid 4, but I would seriously consider it. So I would say if this was imps, north made a mistake. If it was matchpoints, well it was a guess after all.

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This game will fail often.

 

It fails when spades are 4-1 or worse and when diamonds are 3-1 or worse.

 

So it only makes when spades are 3-2 and when diamonds are 2-2.

 

I make that 68% of 40% which is about 27%.

 

So you can bid it but you don't want to be there.

 

It might be slightly better you might survive with some of the 3-1's if there is a stiff Ace onside or stiff Jack and they do not get a ruff.

 

Stiff Jack = 12.4%

 

Stiff Ace onside = 6.2%

 

The defense will often have plenty of time to get their ruff with side Aces for entries.

 

I doubt whether that odds will get up to the requirement for vulnerable games especially when you factor in the possibilities of 2 down and getting doubled.

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If my partner would bid 2 after the 2-overcall (not forcing the way I play it), we have most chance to bid it, since I have a self-sufficient suit.

 

After the 3 bid here, you know enough, so I'd probably blast in 4 again...

 

The biggest treat is a -ruff. That's the only reason why not to bid 4 imo.

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I think the auction as given is correct but just unfortunate. The game is against the odds on these cards and down off the top if we switch South's hearts and clubs.

 

North's hand is impressivw in context but he might well have passed a streongr hand than this that had no bid over 2C. Even if 2D is a negative free bid, should you bid it on xxxxx?

 

South loves the double fit but is justly terrifed of the missing three aces--an invitation is enough.

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My opinion is that p should press on to 4S.. even if on this hand it is slightly non% .. there is clearly a good fit with all his cards useful. He cant possibly know that 3S is the limit of the hand.. bid game in these positions and let the defenders worry .. additionally.. the opps may take the 'sac' at white-v-red..

Rgds, dog

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