han Posted July 11, 2008 Report Share Posted July 11, 2008 32 vs AKQ9 Best play for 4 tricks? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeh Posted July 11, 2008 Report Share Posted July 11, 2008 A friend of mine once played this combo in, I think, a Spingold final (he lost, but not on this hand :) ) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
helene_t Posted July 11, 2008 Report Share Posted July 11, 2008 JT onside has a little less than 25% chance. JT or JTx in either opp has roughly 12/128 chance. J or T sec offside has a lot less than 2/128 chance. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fred Posted July 11, 2008 Report Share Posted July 11, 2008 Easy one to figure out in your head. Line 1: Cash AKQLine 2: Double finesse Line 1 gains against J10x and J10 with LHO.Line 2 gains against J10xx and J10xxx (and J10longer but it doesn't matter) with RHO J10xx is more likely than J10x (if the suit is 4-3 the J10 are more likely to be with the 4 than with the 3) J10xxx is more likely than J10 (if the suit is 5-2 the J10 are more likely to be with the 5 than with the 2) So line 2 is clearly best. Note that you can figure this out with any % symbols. Fred GitelmanBridge Base Inc.www.bridgebase.com Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Finch Posted July 13, 2008 Report Share Posted July 13, 2008 By the way, note that fred carefully didn't mention picking up a singleton honour (J or 10) by cashing the ace first. It looks like that improves the chance of playing them from the top, but it doesn't becuase West will always play an honour from J10x Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kenrexford Posted July 13, 2008 Report Share Posted July 13, 2008 Easy one to figure out in your head. Line 1: Cash AKQLine 2: Double finesse Line 1 gains against J10x and J10 with LHO.Line 2 gains against J10xx and J10xxx (and J10longer but it doesn't matter) with RHO J10xx is more likely than J10x (if the suit is 4-3 the J10 are more likely to be with the 4 than with the 3) J10xxx is more likely than J10 (if the suit is 5-2 the J10 are more likely to be with the 5 than with the 2) So line 2 is clearly best. Note that you can figure this out with any % symbols. Fred GitelmanBridge Base Inc.www.bridgebase.com This analysis, although dead right, nonetheless brings up an important caveat, IMO. When the comparion holding vary distributionally in this manner (2.5 length versus 4.5 length), a little bit of discovery outside of this suit, or inference, or restricted choice leads, etc., might in real life tilt the balanced somewhat. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cherdano Posted July 13, 2008 Report Share Posted July 13, 2008 Easy one to figure out in your head. Line 1: Cash AKQLine 2: Double finesse Line 1 gains against J10x and J10 with LHO.Line 2 gains against J10xx and J10xxx (and J10longer but it doesn't matter) with RHO J10xx is more likely than J10x (if the suit is 4-3 the J10 are more likely to be with the 4 than with the 3) J10xxx is more likely than J10 (if the suit is 5-2 the J10 are more likely to be with the 5 than with the 2) So line 2 is clearly best. Note that you can figure this out with any % symbols. Fred GitelmanBridge Base Inc.www.bridgebase.com This analysis, although dead right, nonetheless brings up an important caveat, IMO. When the comparion holding vary distributionally in this manner (2.5 length versus 4.5 length), a little bit of discovery outside of this suit, or inference, or restricted choice leads, etc., might in real life tilt the balanced somewhat. Either you are wrong, or I misunderstand. Note that Fred was only comparing holding with the same lengths of East and West, so knowing the exact count doesn't matter at all. The odds are also quite strongly in favor of the percentage play - e.g. if the suit is 3=4 it is 2:1 in favor. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kenrexford Posted July 13, 2008 Report Share Posted July 13, 2008 Yeah, I got a little confused there. What I was originally thinking is that holdings like J10xxx and J10xx, J10, and J10x, and the companion xx, xxx, xxxx, and xxxxx, seem to have inferences arise. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Jlall Posted July 13, 2008 Report Share Posted July 13, 2008 Easy one to figure out in your head. Yes I think Han posted this one in the beginner/intermediate forum because experts would find it easy :) Standard protocol on this forum is for experts to use hidden text (like helene_t). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fred Posted July 14, 2008 Report Share Posted July 14, 2008 Easy one to figure out in your head. Yes I think Han posted this one in the beginner/intermediate forum because experts would find it easy :) Standard protocol on this forum is for experts to use hidden text (like helene_t). Sorry to the B/Is out there. Hope I didn't ruin the problem for too many of you. Actually I rarely notice which Forum a given post appears in. I will try to pay more attention to this. Fred GitelmanBridge Base Inc.www.bridgebase.com Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NickRW Posted July 14, 2008 Report Share Posted July 14, 2008 Actually, whatever the forum and whatever your level, it is probably best to read the opening post and see what you can make of it. Having either solved it or taken it as far as you can, then read on. So, I am not sure this hidden text thing does much good - if you're of a mind not to solve it you'll just highlight the text anyway. Nick Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trumpace Posted July 14, 2008 Report Share Posted July 14, 2008 Actually, whatever the forum and whatever your level, it is probably best to read the opening post and see what you can make of it. Having either solved it or taken it as far as you can, then read on. So, I am not sure this hidden text thing does much good - if you're of a mind not to solve it you'll just highlight the text anyway. Nick Sometimes corrections to the problem etc are discussed, we cannot have spoilers etc revealed/sandwiched between those posts. Also the answer being hidden might dissuade some people from giving up too easily or accidently viewing them. It might not be doing any good, but IMO it is not doing any harm either (except for the minor inconveniece to read/write such posts). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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