ArtK78 Posted July 10, 2008 Report Share Posted July 10, 2008 [hv=d=s&v=b&n=sq5hkj6dkj862cj85&s=sajthaq72dq7cakq4]133|200|Scoring: IMP2♣ - 2♦*2NT** - 4♣***4♥**** - 6NT * Waiting (but 2♥ would have been negative)** - 22-23*** - Gerber**** - 0 or 3[/hv] Opening lead is the ♥3. Plan the play. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Finch Posted July 10, 2008 Report Share Posted July 10, 2008 Win in dummy and play a diamond to the Queen. If that loses to the ace I make with diamonds 3-3 or the spade finesse right (or if RHO has 4 diamonds also if the king of spades is singleton offside). If the DQ holds life is less simple, particularly against a good LHO who will duck the diamond from Axx or longer. I'm probably prepared to believe that LHO has 4 low hearts for the choice of suit to lead, so I could continue with four rounds of clubs discarding a diamond from dummy, although to be honest that's really just passing the time of day. I prefer to play a second diamond immediately, becuase when RHO wins he won't necessarily know that a spade is right. I know that if diamonds are not coming in he would lead away from the SK if he had it, and if diamonds are coming in he would lead from low cards in a black suit... but that doesn't really help me at the table. The alternative after the DQ holds is to cash all my rounded suit tricks and play a diamond. But to be honest this isn't going to help me. Oppo will know what my hand has to be for not claiming. So I will win trick 1 in dummy and play a diamond to the queen, then a diamond to the king. If those both hold up then I shall probably take the spade finesse against good opposition. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nige1 Posted July 10, 2008 Report Share Posted July 10, 2008 [hv=d=s&v=b&n=sq5hkj6dkj862cj85&s=sajthaq72dq7cakq4]133|200|Scoring: IMP2♣ - 2♦*2NT** - 4♣***4[HE}**** - 6NT* Waiting (but 2♥ would have been negative)** - 22-23*** - Gerber**** - 0 or 3Opening lead is the ♥3. Plan the play.[/hv]IMO, ♥J, ♦QK. If RHO wins ♦A and switches to ♠ and ♦T9 haven't both appeared, then finesse.But if ♦QK both win, both opponents follow, and there's no special reason to believe that RHO has ♦A, then lead ♦J. Congratulate opponent with ♦ATxx when RHO has ♠K. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ceeb Posted July 11, 2008 Report Share Posted July 11, 2008 Suppose we begin immediately: ♦Q, ♦K. All follow, maybe small maybe not maybe fire a spade from RHO. If there were a simple answer it would be the ♠ finesse -- slightly higher odds than the ♦ break. However, this ignores a few points. 1. If RHO wins & fires a ♠, I am disinclined to finesse. Even if we assume RHO is sure to credit me with the ♠J to come to a 22hcp hand, the spade play is risky if the layout is [hv=d=&v=&n=s qxhkjxdkjxxxcjxx&w=s10xxh10xxxd109xxcxx&e=sk9xxhxxxdaxc10xxx&s=sajxxhaqxdqxcakqx]399|300|[/hv]. 2. The defense should adopt a mixed strategy. West should of course duck the ♦A twice from any 3 or 4 card holding except ♦A109. East should duck sometimes but not always. If the declarer can assume the defenders ALWAYS duck twice, then it becomes % when ♦'s are ducked to assume they are breaking rather than to finesse the ♠. RHO must occasionally win the second ♦ from Axx (without the ♠K) and occasionally from ♦A9xx (with the ♠K) to avoid declarer being able to take advantage. If RHO is known never to win from ♦Axx then, when RHO wins and plays a spade, declarer gains an advantage by finessing. Conversely if RHO is known always to duck with ♦A9xx, then refusing the ♠ finesse when it is offered by RHO becomes an advantageous play for declarer. In summary, the defense should randomize among the four pure strategies that East wins the second diamond- only with ♦A doubleton- with ♦Ax or with ♦Axx- with ♦Ax or with ♦A9xx- with every length. 3. The ♦ spots may tell us something. --- It is a potentially complicated situation. Even ignoring my point about the RHO's possible reticence to play a ♠ and further ignoring the impact of the ♥8 in dummy, the are four possible strategies for each side. For declarer: play diamonds or finesse spade, each according as the defense ducks or does not duck two diamonds. Declarer may play a pure strategy of always finessing the ♠, but may do better by outsmarting the defenders or if I'm right about RHO's ♠ shift. The defense must use a mixed strategy to guarantee their birthright. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArtK78 Posted July 11, 2008 Author Report Share Posted July 11, 2008 I was hoping to get some more opinions, but this problem has not generated a lot of interest. This hand occured in the quarterfinals of our local IMP tournament - The Charles Solomon Teams - run by the Philadelphia Unit of the ACBL. I declared 6NT. On winning the opening lead, I played a diamond to the Queen. The hand could no longer be made, as LHO had a singleton ♦A and the ♠K. By the way, this play was duplicated at the other table. Both my partner and one of my teammates thought that I should win the first trick in my hand and play a low diamond from hand. The ♦A would fall on air, and I would have 12 tricks - 4 hearts, 4 clubs, 3 diamonds and a spade. The reason they gave for playing the first round of diamonds from hand was that if LHO had the T9xxx of diamonds, he might have led a diamond against 6NT rather than a heart. So, if anyone had a singleton ♦A, it was more likely to be LHO than RHO. My thought was that I wanted to test diamonds prior to resorting to the spade finesse. If RHO gained the lead, he could play a spade, forcing me to choose my line immediately. I can't avoid this problem if RHO had the ♦A unless it was singleton (or if he flew Ace on the first round for some reason known only to him). So that was my rationale for playing a diamond towards the Queen. In the eyes of two of my teammates, the play of a diamond to the Q at trick two was an error. Are my teammates correct, or are they just trying to win the post-mortem? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeh Posted July 11, 2008 Report Share Posted July 11, 2008 In my view, they were correct. I almost posted a reply in which I began by analyzing this issue: who is more likely to hold a stiff ♦A, and it was clearly LHO. I then said that this was the tiniest of edges, and almost certainly not the key to the hand (what do I know?)... and was trying to untangle how to play depending on when or if the opps won either of the 1st two rounds of diamonds, and then work intervened, so I didn't make the post. I do think that it is very slightly best to lead from Qx for the given reason Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stjk Posted July 11, 2008 Report Share Posted July 11, 2008 I think play low to Q is better if LHO has DT9 or any small singleton D, in thosecases, you need to make early guess if play low from Qx and lose to RHO. If youalways take the S finess, then at least you are lossing when LHO has DT9 and SK.So I feel it's hard to say play low from Qx is better. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MFA Posted July 14, 2008 Report Share Posted July 14, 2008 Are my teammates correct, or are they just trying to win the post-mortem?They are resulting! I think that low to the queen is clearly superior for at least 2 reasons. 1. We will get a nasty guess, if east finds a spade shift. Better to have seen two rounds of diamonds than one. They might even be 1-5 with a small singleton with west or 2-4 with T9 bare. 2. Low to the queen is tough for west to duck with AT9x (and no ♠K). We might have Qxx. These considerations outweight the stiff ♦A issue. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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