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Scoring is MP.

 

You have bid to 4S and are declarer (South).

 

West leads K and you see

 

[hv=d=s&v=n&n=sk93h654da32caqjt&s=saqj8542hk32d4c32]133|200|Scoring: MP

Lead K.[/hv]

 

 

Plan the play.

 

 

If the scoring was IMPS, how would you play?

 

(As usual Adv/Exp please refrain from posting too early).

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not sure if 3.5 hours is long enough to avoid "too early", or if I get credit for being adv/exp... but here is my hidden choice... Don't read until you work it out on your own in the small chance I am right.

 

 

One has to assume the K lead is normal, and will happen at other tables. One has to also believe 4 is a normal contract.

 

At imps, the play is routine. Duck the King. Win second diamond with ACE - and throw a CLUB... next AQ of spades, then club ACE, and lead the CLUB queen for a ruffing finessee.. planning on throwing a heart if not covered, and throwing hearts on other clubs with spade king as entry. If all goes wrong, you hope to lose only 1C, 1D, and 1H. Winning 7, 3, 1 -- (but clearly losing 3 tricks sooooo).

 

Ok that is imps. A safety play. At MP you can not afford to play it this safe. If you win the diamond ACE, you have to play for both club finessee and if the club finessee loses play that the heart ACE is on side. You simply can not give up the chance to take maximum tricks if the club hook wins, or if it loses, if then the heart hook wins. At least that is what I think. You make 11 tricks (at least) 75% of the time (when club hook wins) or when heart hook wins. And you might win 12 tricks (if both work or if club king is onside to 3 or less).

 

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Regarding Inquiry's IMPs line:

 

 

It looks like this line is set up so that, if RHO plays the King of clubs or a trump over the club honours, we can overtake and get back to the board via the king. If LHO comes in with ruff or king, he can't safely attack our weak hearts.

 

If LHO has 5 clubs to the king and no spades, he can spoil our party by failing to cover the second round of clubs. That would be a nice defense, and is a fairly low probability distribution. Is that the only way this line fails?

 

 

V

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Regarding Inquiry's IMPs line:

 

 

It looks like this line is set up so that, if RHO plays the King of clubs or a trump over the club honours, we can overtake and get back to the board via the king.  If LHO comes in with ruff or king, he can't safely attack our weak hearts.

 

If LHO has 5 clubs to the king and no spades, he can spoil our party by failing to cover the second round of clubs.  That would be a nice defense, and is a fairly low probability distribution.  Is that the only way this line fails?

 

 

V

 

 

If LHO has --, Asomething, KQsomething, Kxxxx and ducks the second club, that's ten tricks, 7 spades, the DA and the CAQ.

 

At mps, declarer should avoid revealing the position by taking one trump ending in hand and immediately finessing the club. Even if both the HA and CK are wrong, RHO might play us for AQxxxxx, Ax, xx, xx or AQxxxx, KQx, xx, xx and try to cash a diamond.

 

 

 

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9 tricks. need one more. Club finesse is bad cause when it loses, heart comes back and lose 3 H and a C. Would rather take club finesse other way but have two clubs. Simple. Duck diamond discarding club on ace, then can draw trump & take finesse other way. Is this right?
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9 tricks. need one more. Club finesse is bad cause when it loses, heart comes back and lose 3 H and a C. Would rather take club finesse other way but have two clubs. Simple. Duck diamond discarding club on ace, then can draw trump & take finesse other way. Is this right?

For IMPS, yes.

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Without reading the rest of the posts, I would cash the A at imps after drawing trumps so the contract makes if E has a singleton King. At MPs I would take the club finesse first (after drawing trumps) in case the opponents don't return hearts if it fails so I can still make the contract if both A and K are offside.
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