Play 3NT

[Finch]

This time, as a special treat, you get to play it on Vugraph

 

A5

J8642

AQ7

1072

 

Q64

AK

K964

AQ53

 

1D - 1H

2NT - 3D*

3H - 3NT

 

dummy showed a raise to 3NT with 5 hearts and not four spades.

3H was forced by 3D. Declarer has shown nothing except 4+ diamonds, 18-19 balanced and no desire to play a 5-3 heart fit.

 

2 of spades lead to the King (4th highest)

3 of spades return to the ace

 

Plan the play

 

(there will be a part two to this in due course, but we'll see what the popular vote is to start with)

[Sambolino]

ace of clubs, diamond to the dummy, club. if rho ducks smoothly i duck

[Codo]

I think a start with the ace of clubs is nice.

I will continue with a club to the ten. If the king appears or then ten wins, I am home.

If this lose to the jack and a spade comes back, I win, play a diamond to the ace and a club up. If rho shows out I am down, else I am home. So under the premise that spades are 4-4 I will win when he has anything but exactly Jx, because a club up to the queen will now create a sure trick and they are not able to cash more then 2 Clubs and two spades.

[david_c]

I think a start with the ace of clubs is nice.

I will continue with a club to the ten. If the king appears or then ten wins, I am home.

If this lose to the jack and a spade comes back, I win, play a diamond to the ace and a club up. If rho shows out I am down, else I am home. So under the premise that spades are 4-4 I will win when he has anything but exactly Jx, because a club up to the queen will now create a sure trick and they are not able to cash more then 2 Clubs and two spades.

I think it's better to duck the second round of clubs completely, like sambolino said. This picks up Jx with RHO and only loses to KJxx with LHO -- and surely with that holding LHO might have led a club, rather than leading from a bad 4-card spade suit.

 

So ace of clubs, duck a club. This seems so good on the lead that the chances in the red suits can be ignored completely.

[MickyB]

I think it's better to duck the second round of clubs completely, like sambolino said. This picks up Jx with RHO and only loses to KJxx with LHO -- and surely with that holding LHO might have led a club, rather than leading from a bad 4-card spade suit.

 

So ace of clubs, duck a club. This seems so good on the lead that the chances in the red suits can be ignored completely.

Only looked briefly, but if nothing appears on the second round of clubs, aren't you better testing diamonds before playing a third round of clubs?

[Codo]

I think it's better to duck the second round of clubs completely, like sambolino said. This picks up Jx with RHO and only loses to KJxx with LHO -- and surely with that holding LHO might have led a club, rather than leading from a bad 4-card spade suit.

 

So ace of clubs, duck a club. This seems so good on the lead that the chances in the red suits can be ignored completely.

I am not yet convinced.

 

1. Do you really lead from KJxx into a 2 NT bidder with a side four card major suit where at least one opponent claimed to have less then 4? You may, but not everybody does.

2. Kjxx and KJxxx is more likely then just Jx, isn't it? And even if you rule out the later, because he had lead clubs in that case, you have 6 possibilities for KJxx but just 4 for Jx.

[david_c]

Only looked briefly, but if nothing appears on the second round of clubs, aren't you better testing diamonds before playing a third round of clubs?

Well you can't test for 3-3 diamonds, if that's what you mean, because that might set up a diamond trick for the opps to go with their four black-suit tricks. But I guess you can play off just the ace and queen.

[gnasher]

How about:

- ♥AK

- Club to the 10, losing to the jack

- Win return

- Three top diamonds, ending in dummy

- Club to the queen

 

That gives me:

- Hearts Qx or 109 doubleton

- Diamonds 3-3 or J10 doubleton

- ♣J on left or ♣K on right

 

Compared with ♣A and duck a club, I lose to ♣Kx with LHO and ♣Jx with RHO, but that's made up for by ♥Qx in either hand, and I get 3-3 diamonds as well.

 

Compared with ♣A and and a club to the 10, I lose to ♣Kx or ♣KJxx(x) with LHO, but again what I get back in the red suits is worth more.

[badderzboy]

A5

J8642

AQ7

1072

 

Q64

AK

K964

AQ53

 

So on the Spade Lead we have 8 tricks on top....

 

9th Can come from in

 

♥s 3-3 or Qx or 109 or Hand with 4♥s holding K♣s as we can promote 5th Heart

♦s 3-3

♣ finesse right 50% chance.

 

I'm going for AK♥s first and then cross to ♦ and concede ♥ and go from there and eagerly await being told how silly my line is B)

 

Steve

[david_c]

How about:

- ♥AK

- Club to the 10, losing to the jack

- Win return

- Three top diamonds, ending in dummy

- Club to the queen

 

That gives me:

- Hearts Qx or 109 doubleton

- Diamonds 3-3 or J10 doubleton

- ♣J on left or ♣K on right

I don't understand why you played off both top hearts first. Aren't you now in danger of going off when LHO has, say, ♣KJx? Sure your line sets up two club tricks in that case, but won't the opponents take two clubs, two spades and a heart first?

[gnasher]

I don't understand why you played off both top hearts first. Aren't you now in danger of going off when LHO has, say, ♣KJx?

That's true. I cashed the hearts early because I wanted to cater for ♥109 doubleton, but ♣KJx(x) on the left is more likely. So, I should delay cashing them until after the second spade, and I make against:

 

- Hearts Qx

- Diamonds 3-3 or J10 doubleton

- ♣J on left or ♣K on right

 

That still seems better than the clubs-only lines.

[mikeh]

Win the spade in dummy, heart to the K, club to the 10.

 

If it loses to the J, they can't attack hearts and spades at the same time, so they will usually play a spade. Win in hand, pitching a heart from dummy, cash the heart K, in case either the Queen appears or the 109 have both dropped (in which case I cross in diamonds and take/establish my 9th trick in hearts).

 

If nothing good happens, cash the diamond K then AQ.

 

Maybe diamonds were 3-3, then I am home.

 

If not, then I hook the club Q.

 

This seems to give me the contract whenever:

 

1) the club J is on my left

2) the heart Q comes down doubleton or the 109 are tight (or Q109)

3) the diamonds split 3-3, or the J10 are tight

4) the club K is on my right

 

 

With spades apparently 4-4, this looks like a line that has 75% in the clubs alone, plus approximately 36% of the remaining 25% based on the diamond suit (probably more like 38-40 once spades are known to be splitting), so 84% plus the extras in hearts.

 

 

If they win the club with the J on my right, and switch to a heart, I win, cash the top 3 diamonds ending in dummy as before, and play on clubs.. probably playing the Q.

 

This line gives up on a restricted choice situation in diamonds... LHO Jx or 10x.. and that may be the superior line... but I don' t have the entries to do both minors in the order I want to, and playing on clubs seems to me to be the better combined percentage.

[Finch]

7 posters have replied, with 6 different lines.

 

I feel less bad about going off - I played one of the lines proposed here.

 

Must be a good problem!

 

Various things happen on early rounds of various suits, but let's wait and see if anyone else has any good ideas...

[EricK]

I put this deal into the computer program Jack (v4.01) and asked it to analyse the position (this involves it dealing 1000 possibilities for the opposition hands at random and deciding which play works best double dummy).

 

At trick 3 it consistently recommends a small ♥ to the Ace (not implausible)

But at trick 4 it consistently recommends cashing the ♦K (which I don't really understand)

Then, unless something interesting has happened, it cashes the ♥K and, if both follow, crosses with a ♦ and plays another ♥.

One time it cashed the ♣A before playing the second top ♥, but I'm not sure whether this was due to the spot cards which had appeared or just the nature of the 1,000 random hands (as it normally rates the ♣A as slightly worse than the ♥K at trick 5)

 

I'm not claiming that this is the best line (or even a good line), but I thought it would be interesting to see what the computer would play.

[ceeb]

♣A, low to the 10 then low to the Q is the % play in ♣, losing only when RHO has Jx (4 cases). By comparison, ♣A then low toward the Q (ducking) fails when LHO has ♣KJxx(x) (6+ cases). ♣A then low toward the ♣Q imagining RHO might hesitate with the King -- after we cashed the Ace -- means that one of us thinks the other doesn't belong on Vugraph. (Besides, there's no gain in playing the Q compared to ducking and leading to the Q later.)

 

The play I suggest wins 90+% -- a little more if LHO would normally have led from 5 clubs, or if you think you can read LHO's fast duck as denying KJxx(x).

 

I think it's also the % play for the hand, aside from free checking for trivial edges like ♦ or ♥ honors on the rail. (But low ♣ first is a reasonable alternative, losing by comparison only in the very unlikely event that RHO has ♣J alone.)

 

Assuming the club 10 loses to the J, spade return:

 

1. Suppose you next cash ♦AQ and LHO drops x,J or x,10. Then a 3rd ♦ play is 2:1. However, a club play is 3:1, succeeding whenever RHO has either of the remaining clubs. So the ♦ restricted choice play is inferior

 

2. Can it be resurrected by first checking for ♥Qx? No, because you have to cash the hearts before you know the ♦ restricted choice option exists. Hence the 16% chance of the ♥Q dropping augments only the basic 50% basic chance in ♦, not the 2:1 chance, while ruining the chance to play another ♣ if the ♥Q does not drop.

 

Edit: I see this is Codo's line. Also that the ♣7 is in dummy -- hence if RHO drops a high spot under the A there is a restricted choice play available, making the hand except when RHO has specifically ♣J4, J6, or 98.

[david_c]

I'm really surprised. I don't disagree with the percentages. But ♣A and duck a club is still above 85% a priori, and in nearly all of the losing cases LHO would have led a club, not a spade, from his holding. Personally I would lead a club if I had to choose between ♠JTxx and ♣KJxx. But even if you don't agree with that, LHO could still have ♠Jxxx or ♠Txxx, and now he would surely prefer a club lead if he had ♣KJxx.

 

Even if LHO does have ♣KJxx he might misdefend by going in with the jack.

[inquiry]

Lots of lines cause lots of chances... of course, best is to combine some chances...

 

♥Q, ♥Qx, ♥Qxx is on cluster of chances

♦ 3=3 is another chance

♣ 3=3, ♣K on side, ♣J doubleton on some lines is another cluster

 

I think the percentage play for two club tricks is club ACE and then low club towards the Ten, and if necessary, low club back towards the Q. This wins 2 tricks something like 92% of the time. IF that fails, and I am not down, I will then try cashing the AK of hearts -- or for 3-3 diamonds. So at trick two i win spade ace, play club to ace and then low club up to ten.

[gnasher]

Win the spade in dummy, heart to the K, club to the 10.

 

If it loses to the J, they can't attack hearts and spades at the same time, so they will usually play a spade. Win in hand, pitching a heart from dummy, cash the heart K, in case either the Queen appears or the 109 have both dropped (in which case I cross in diamonds and take/establish my 9th trick in hearts).

 

If nothing good happens, cash the diamond K then AQ.

 

Maybe diamonds were 3-3, then I am home.

 

If not, then I hook the club Q.

This is the line I should have suggested - for some reason I first cashed ♥AK too early, then thought that cashing them later meant I couldn't have ♥109 as one of my winning options.

 

I can't understand why anyone thinks that a small extra chance in clubs makes up for giving up one of diamonds 3-3 or ♥Q doubleton.

[gnasher]

I think the percentage play for two club tricks is club ACE and then low club towards the Ten, and if necessary, low club back towards the Q. This wins 2 tricks something like 92% of the time. IF that fails, and I am not down ...

You are down. You have lost three clubs and two spades.

[david_c]

I can't understand why anyone thinks that a small extra chance in clubs makes up for giving up one of diamonds 3-3 or ♥Q doubleton.

And I can't understand why you think it's only a "small" extra chance. Maybe I misunderstand your line, but you said it picks up ♣J with LHO or ♣K with RHO; that's about 75% just in the club suit. Whereas the percentage play for two tricks in clubs is over 90%. That seems like a huge extra chance to me, much more than you can get back from the red suits.

[Guest Jlall]

Isn't picking up the clubs 100 % if LHO will give away KJxx? I like that line because it seems so likely that LHO won't duck in tempo.

[ceeb]

Win the spade in dummy, heart to the K, club to the 10.

 

If it loses to the J, they can't attack hearts and spades at the same time, so they will usually play a spade. Win in hand, pitching a heart from dummy, cash the heart K, in case either the Queen appears or the 109 have both dropped (in which case I cross in diamonds and take/establish my 9th trick in hearts).

 

If nothing good happens, cash the diamond K then AQ.

 

Maybe diamonds were 3-3, then I am home.

 

If not, then I hook the club Q.

This is the line I should have suggested - for some reason I first cashed ♥AK too early, then thought that cashing them later meant I couldn't have ♥109 as one of my winning options.

 

I can't understand why anyone thinks that a small extra chance in clubs makes up for giving up one of diamonds 3-3 or ♥Q doubleton.

It's not as small as the red suit chances.

 

If you try to combine chances via

 

r1. club to the 10 (50+%)

r2. a red suit cooperates (50%)

r3. club to the Q (50%)

 

then you have 3 50/50 (very nearly) shots, net of 7/8.

 

The (second) best play in clubs alone is better than that. Play it:

 

c1. Club to the 10 (50+%)

c2. Cash club Ace -- Kx with LHO (4%)

c3. Lead a club toward the Q -- 75%.

 

Hence thanks to the preparatory play c2, c3 becomes equal to r2+r3. The vigorish from c2 not to mention dry red honors and power of the ♣7 are the edge.

[gnasher]

I'm prepared to be proved wrong, but what's wrong with this analysis:

 

Compared with ♣A and a low one to the 10, my (or rather MikeH's) line gains against:

- ♥Q doubleton or ♥109 doubleton = 48.45 x (12/30) = 19.38

- Diamonds 3-3 = 35.53 x (1 - .1938) = 28.64

 

Totalling 48.02% (of the hands where at least one of the lines fails)

 

♣A and a low one to the 10 gains against:

- ♣Kxx with LHO = 35.53 x (6/20) = 10.66

- ♣Kx or ♣K642 with LHO = 48.45 x (5/30) x (1 - .1066) = 7.21

- Singleton diamond honour with LHO = 14.53 x (2/12) x (1- .1066 -.0721) = 1.99

(I've assumed that ♣Kxxxx with LHO is impossible)

 

Totalling 19.86% (of the hands where at least one of the lines fails)

 

So, have I missed some case where your line gains, or messed up the calculations, or what?

Edited July 8, 2008 by gnasher

[david_c]

Totalling 19.86% (of the hands where at least one of the lines fails)

 

So, have I missed some case where your line gains, or messed up the calculations, or what?

I think you've messed up the calculations. This 19.86% is not "of the hands where at least one of the lines fails", it's 19.86% of all hands. Since both lines succeed about three quarters of the time, you need to multiply your 19.86% by four.

 

[Edit: actually that only applies to the first two parts of the calculation, so it's less than 4 x 19.86%.]

Edited July 8, 2008 by david_c

[gnasher]

I'm prepared to be proved wrong

I'm glad I wrote those words. I have, in fact been proved wrong - sorry.