matmat Posted July 6, 2008 Report Share Posted July 6, 2008 I was kibbing a team match today. At one point during a discussion of a possibility of a particular holding by a 1NT opener a kib claimed the percentage to be 55.555%. They were being totally serious about this. My kneejerk reaction to this is always that giving percentages to anything smaller than a whole percentage shows a lack of understanding of the game and is, well, stupid. What do you think? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TylerE Posted July 6, 2008 Report Share Posted July 6, 2008 That looks suspiciously like 5/9. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matmat Posted July 6, 2008 Author Report Share Posted July 6, 2008 That looks suspiciously like 5/9. "proper" calculation was: 5/9 * 4/8 * 2 but that just happens to be the same as 5/9 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimG Posted July 6, 2008 Report Share Posted July 6, 2008 I was kibbing a team match today. At one point during a discussion of a possibility of a particular holding by a 1NT opener a kib claimed the percentage to be 55.555%. They were being totally serious about this. My kneejerk reaction to this is always that giving percentages to anything smaller than a whole percentage shows a lack of understanding of the game and is, well, stupid. What do you think? Would you have a complaint if he had said "5 out of 9" or some such? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matmat Posted July 6, 2008 Author Report Share Posted July 6, 2008 I was kibbing a team match today. At one point during a discussion of a possibility of a particular holding by a 1NT opener a kib claimed the percentage to be 55.555%. They were being totally serious about this. My kneejerk reaction to this is always that giving percentages to anything smaller than a whole percentage shows a lack of understanding of the game and is, well, stupid. What do you think? Would you have a complaint if he had said "5 out of 9" or some such? less so, i think, but would be even happier with "slightly better than half" i think i'm just being nitpicky Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
barmar Posted July 6, 2008 Report Share Posted July 6, 2008 Kibitzer discussion is alot like forum messages. People like to show off, pick nits, etc. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cherdano Posted July 6, 2008 Report Share Posted July 6, 2008 i think i'm just being nitpicky ! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matmat Posted July 6, 2008 Author Report Share Posted July 6, 2008 i think i'm just being nitpicky ! ?! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matmat Posted July 6, 2008 Author Report Share Posted July 6, 2008 Watch out, if you put enough punctuation characters together you'll incurxxxxx wrath. :P !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! @#$@#$#@er! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
helene_t Posted July 6, 2008 Report Share Posted July 6, 2008 I think expressions like 5/9 have some merit as they give hints towards the underlying assumptions. "Slightly better than 50%" sounds as if it is a guess based on some considerations too complicated to lead to a specific formula. But yes, 55.555% looks a little silly. I saw at another forum, someone making a point like MatMat's and concluding by "I am pretty sure that 79.3261% of all forum posters agree with me". Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
barmar Posted July 7, 2008 Report Share Posted July 7, 2008 93.9% of all statistics are made up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascade Posted July 7, 2008 Report Share Posted July 7, 2008 I think expressions like 5/9 have some merit as they give hints towards the underlying assumptions. "Slightly better than 50%" sounds as if it is a guess based on some considerations too complicated to lead to a specific formula. But yes, 55.555% looks a little silly. I saw at another forum, someone making a point like MatMat's and concluding by "I am pretty sure that 79.3261% of all forum posters agree with me". Why would 55.555% look silly and 5/9 have some merit? The former is probably rounded and the later is presumably accurate. I was taught from a young age to wherever possible leave numbers as fractions as converting to a decimal potentially lost accuracy. Any number however accurately it is portrayed is subject to the implicit or explicit assumptions that have been made. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brianshark Posted July 7, 2008 Report Share Posted July 7, 2008 Maybe the guy is more comfortable dealing in decimal than fractions. Maybe a % fits better into his sentence. (eg. "It was a xxxx game.") Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matmat Posted July 7, 2008 Author Report Share Posted July 7, 2008 Why would 55.555% look silly and 5/9 have some merit? The former is probably rounded and the later is presumably accurate. I was taught from a young age to wherever possible leave numbers as fractions as converting to a decimal potentially lost accuracy. Any number however accurately it is portrayed is subject to the implicit or explicit assumptions that have been made. I think this is a bit of an accuracy vs. precision thing for me. I mean, we know the the result obtained to within one-one-thousandth or better... except that the actual odds might be a couple of percent one way or the other. To have someone tell me that the percentage chance of p having a particular holding on a rather general auction using just an empty spaces calculation doesn't seem right. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gnasher Posted July 7, 2008 Report Share Posted July 7, 2008 Shouldn't it have been 55.556%? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
helene_t Posted July 7, 2008 Report Share Posted July 7, 2008 Shouldn't it have been 55.556%? Spot on B) But maybe he meant to put an overscore on top of the last 5 but couldnt find the overscore on his keyboard Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gwnn Posted July 7, 2008 Report Share Posted July 7, 2008 Shouldn't it have been 55.556%? in Romania if your grades at the end of the term were 10 10 10 8, you'd get a 10 GPA, but if 10 10 8 and a 10 at a semester ending paper that has 25% weight in your GPA, you'd get a 9 for a GPA. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matmat Posted July 7, 2008 Author Report Share Posted July 7, 2008 Shouldn't it have been 55.556%? funny you should mention that... that was the first thing I typed to kibs when I saw the number.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
barmar Posted July 8, 2008 Report Share Posted July 8, 2008 Quoting bridge percentages to 4 significant figures is like a weatherman predicting a 49.27% chance of rain. We don't even believe he can be accurate when he rounds to the nearest 10 percentage points, so extra precision is meaningless. And even if he IS that accurate, what can we do with all that extra precision? You're either going to take an umbrella or not -- does a hundredth of a percentage make a difference in that decision? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
y66 Posted July 8, 2008 Report Share Posted July 8, 2008 More accurate is not the same as more useful. A thoughtful kib might have offered a choice or at least inquired about others' preferences regarding precision. At the table - kibbing or playing -- I prefer whole numbers. No problem with 5/9. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascade Posted July 8, 2008 Report Share Posted July 8, 2008 Quoting bridge percentages to 4 significant figures is like a weatherman predicting a 49.27% chance of rain. We don't even believe he can be accurate when he rounds to the nearest 10 percentage points, so extra precision is meaningless. And even if he IS that accurate, what can we do with all that extra precision? You're either going to take an umbrella or not -- does a hundredth of a percentage make a difference in that decision? Do you take an umbrella everyday? If not then at some point (range) over a range of 1/100 of a percent it does matter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
effervesce Posted July 8, 2008 Report Share Posted July 8, 2008 The problem is is that if someone says a number as xx.xxx, it technically means that they know the answer to that number of decimal places of accuracy - for example, if I said 10.00mL as instead of 10mL, 10.00mL means (at worst) 10.00mL plus or minus 0.05mL, while 10mL means 10mL plus or minus 5mL (at worst). Hence, when the kibber said 55.555%, he's technically saying the probability is 55.555% plus or minus 0.005%, which is ridiculous. For example, if a person said they walked half a kilometer - did they travel 500.000m? No, they meant 500m, plus or minus 100m (200m?) or so. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimG Posted July 9, 2008 Report Share Posted July 9, 2008 Hence, when the kibber said 55.555%, he's technically saying the probability is 55.555% plus or minus 0.0005%, which is ridiculous. Would it have been ridiculous if he had said 5/9 instead of 55.555%? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
655321 Posted July 9, 2008 Report Share Posted July 9, 2008 Hence, when the kibber said 55.555%, he's technically saying the probability is 55.555% plus or minus 0.0005%, which is ridiculous. Would it have been ridiculous if he had said 5/9 instead of 55.555%?TimG, so many of your posts are of this nature. I don't see the point. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimG Posted July 9, 2008 Report Share Posted July 9, 2008 Sorry, I guess I did already ask this question, perhaps a private reply to effervesce would have been in order if I felt it necessary to repeat. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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