Now What?

[rogerclee]

IMPs, All Red, Third Seat

 

♠J87xxx ♥x ♦AQ9x ♣7x

 

1NT - (Dbl) - 3♠ - (4♥)

P - (P) - ?

 

1NT was 12-14, and 3♠ was preemptive.

 

Agree with 3♠? Now what?

[Echognome]

Now I await partner's lead. Don't know if I would have braved 3♠, but that was the bed I made. I don't understand anything else but the green card now.

[Apollo81]

also dont understand anything but pass, we knew they were going to bid hearts or pass 3♠, we've made them guess so now we see if it was right or not

[655321]

Pass WTP.

 

Partner was allowed to bid 4♠ with 4 cards, I am not going to double 4♥, so what is left?

 

Agree with 3♠.

[kenrexford]

I am not going to double 4♥, so what is left?

Surely you are tempted, though? I'd hit this hard, myself.

[andy_h]

Pass WTP.

 

Partner was allowed to bid 4♠ with 4 cards, I am not going to double 4♥, so what is left?

 

Agree with 3♠.

Agree. We've bid our hand

[Guest Jlall]

I am not going to double 4♥, so what is left?

Surely you are tempted, though? I'd hit this hard, myself.

Why would one be tempted, because we have lots of points?

[jdonn]

I would double, call me a sucker. I just think they are down often enough.

[kenrexford]

I am not going to double 4♥, so what is left?

Surely you are tempted, though? I'd hit this hard, myself.

Why would one be tempted, because we have lots of points?

Yes. That's exactly what I did. I counted up my HCP's and added them to partner's HCP and decided, "Gee, they cannot have 26 HCP!"

 

Or, I have a well-placed AQ, and I pushed them into a decision. I think I have just enough defense that we might get them for a couple of tricks. Sure, they might make, but overtricks seems unlikely. And this is IMP scoring, so I'm not top-or-bottom gambling. I like to punish close decisions when they guess wrong, and I'm willing to toss them a cherry when they guessed right.

[Guest Jlall]

I am not going to double 4♥, so what is left?

Surely you are tempted, though? I'd hit this hard, myself.

Why would one be tempted, because we have lots of points?

Yes. That's exactly what I did. I counted up my HCP's and added them to partner's HCP and decided, "Gee, they cannot have 26 HCP!"

 

Or, I have a well-placed AQ, and I pushed them into a decision. I think I have just enough defense that we might get them for a couple of tricks. Sure, they might make, but overtricks seems unlikely. And this is IMP scoring, so I'm not top-or-bottom gambling. I like to punish close decisions when they guess wrong, and I'm willing to toss them a cherry when they guessed right.

Ok, I guess we evaluate our defensive potential much differently then. I think an overtrick is way more likely than down 2. Are we expecting partner to magically find the diamond lead? If he leads a club or a spade it's probably bad. Declarer might be able to pitch diamonds on spades if he is some (not unlikely) 1525 or so, or declarer might just already be short in diamonds. I mean really what do you think LHO has? It seems pretty likely to me he has a shapely hand given that he doesn't have many HCP. Maybe his second suit is diamonds, in which case our honors are not well placed. Maybe he just has 7 hearts or something.

 

I think a good rule is when the opponents bid a lot with not many HCP they have some shape. When they have shape you want trump tricks and aces to double them. We have 1 trump and 1 ace and partner elected not to double them so I don't see any reason to think we can hold them to 4, let alone beat them. If parnter has 4 tricks himself including some trump tricks maybe he would have Xed them himself.

 

Sorry jdonn but this really seems like a beginner X to me.

[kenrexford]

Well, I have to admit that my initial thought on this hand was that it would probably be better to show diamonds than spades, if there was any real way to do this.

 

That said, the reasoning offered seems misplaced.

 

You ask why partner did not double. He probably did not double because we made a preemptive call. A preemptive call with a potential two tricks on the side is unexpected. By your suggestion, he needs four assured tricks to double. I don't think he needs four assured tricks to set this.

 

You mention that opponents who bid without a lot of HCP do so because of shape. True. Or, they bid too much because they are forced to make a guess. I forced a guess. I think they guessed wrong. If I am wrong, which seems very possible, then such is the game.

 

My thought on this is that I have the unexpected -- cruddy spades and outside values. I think there is a greater chance here that the opponents have a duplication of values, like a stiff spade opposite some stranded honor(s). I would also think that partner will expect some surprise like this.

[pclayton]

I think this is such an automatic pass. OK, we have a couple of goodies outside out spades, BFD. Like Justin says, why would partner EVER find a diamond lead on this auction, with or without the x?

[rogerclee]

This was a problem in our newspaper that I thought was interesting. My reaction was pretty much "pass wtp" like most here, but several points in the paper made me think double was at least worth consideration:

 

1) LHO had to make a guess on not very much information; his partner could have a pretty wide range of hands. The penalty could be pretty substantial if his partner has a minimum without a good fit.

 

2) Partner would seldom double here even with good trumps. You have a lot of values partner doesn't know about (the AQ behind the strong hand).

 

3) The opponents have bid game on not a lot of values, and the other table likely did not start with this auction. Even if 4♥x makes, it may only lose you two (more) IMPs.

 

Thoughts? (Not trying to argue with people, just seeing if anyone is similarly swayed. I think I would still pass.)

[gnasher]

Ken's arguments have converted me to a doubler. The point about them having wasted spade honours opposite a shortage seems especially pertinent.

 

If a double suggests unexpected defence, presumably that's in a side suit rather than in spades. If double increases the chance that partner will lead a diamond, I think it's worth it.

[nige1]

IMPs, All Red, Third Seat ♠ J87xxx ♥ x ♦ AQ9x ♣ 7x

 

1NT - (Dbl) - 3♠ - (4♥)

P - (P) - ?

 

1NT was 12-14, and 3♠ was preemptive.

Agree with 3♠? Now what?

IMO

• Over 1N(_X), 4♠ = 10, 3♠ = 9
  
• OVer (4♥), _P = 10, _X = 6, 4♠ = 4.
  

[pclayton]

This was a problem in our newspaper that I thought was interesting. My reaction was pretty much "pass wtp" like most here, but several points in the paper made me think double was at least worth consideration:

 

1) LHO had to make a guess on not very much information; his partner could have a pretty wide range of hands. The penalty could be pretty substantial if his partner has a minimum without a good fit.

 

2) Partner would seldom double here even with good trumps. You have a lot of values partner doesn't know about (the AQ behind the strong hand).

 

3) The opponents have bid game on not a lot of values, and the other table likely did not start with this auction. Even if 4♥x makes, it may only lose you two (more) IMPs.

 

Thoughts? (Not trying to argue with people, just seeing if anyone is similarly swayed. I think I would still pass.)

Marshall LOL.

[cherdano]

Maybe RHO's ♠KQxx opposite LHO's x are not that useless after partner leads his ♠A?

[kenrexford]

Maybe RHO's ♠KQxx opposite LHO's x are not that useless after partner leads his ♠A?

But they are rather useless after partner then switches to a diamond through the King in dummy. Sure, they might be used to pitch good clubs.

[sathyab]

I think this is such an automatic pass. OK, we have a couple of goodies outside out spades, BFD. Like Justin says, why would partner EVER find a diamond lead on this auction, with or without the x?

He doesn't need to lead a Diamond to beat the hand, it's not as though you had KQJ of Diamonds. I think the double is based on the gamble that your AQ of Diamonds is well-placed over dummy's King and that partner can find the switch after winning the first trick with the Ace of Spades or a high club honor. The double should warn him not to lead a spade in general, as a preemptive hand that doubles the final contract promises values elsewhere.