diamond guess

[bb79]

This is from today's Cayne team match.

 

[hv=d=s&v=n&n=sqt63ht72dk952c84&s=saj98ha4dajt64caj]133|200|Scoring: IMP

1♦-(DBL)-2♦-(2♥)

2♠-pass-3♠-pass

4♠-a.p.[/hv]

 

 

♥ K 2 3 4

♣ T 4 K A

♠ 9 2 3 7

♠ 8 K 6 ♣7

♣ Q 8 3 J

♥ 8 T J A

♠ J 4 T ♥5

♠ A 5 Q ♣5

♦ 4 3 K 7

♦ 2 8 ?

 

Do you play J or go up with A?

Another way to ask the question, do you play west hand for Kxxx KQx x QTxxx or Kxxx KQx Qx QTxx ?

[kenrexford]

Just to contrast, the other question is whether RHO holds:

 

♠x ♥Jxxxx ♦Qxx ♣Kxxx or

♠x ♥Jxxxx ♦xx ♣Kxxxx

 

 

 

 

 

As an interesting aside...

 

The second option for Advancer might have yielded a bad sacrifice of 5♣. Declarer leads Ace and a heart, wins the club, leads a diamond to the King, receives his ruff, cashes the spade Ace and then the second diamond for down four and +800.

 

The first is a much less likely sacrifice, on its face. However, it is actually much better. In 5♣, the defense starts the same, with Ace and a heart, win the club, diamond to the King, get the one ruff, and then try to cash a second diamond (perhaps), failing. +500 and thus a good sacrifice, if you make the contract.

 

Not necessarily relevant to the play, but interesting to me nonetheless.

[gnasher]

East's bidding is consistent with either hand.

 

Kxxx KQ8 x QT9xx is definitely a takeout double of 1♦, whereas Kxxx KQ8 Qx QT9x is close. I finesse.

 

If I thought that both hands were automatic takeout doubles, I'd play for the drop, as the more balanced distribution is a priori more likely.

[Sambolino]

Kxxx KQ8 x QT9xx is definitely a takeout double of 1♦, whereas Kxxx KQ8 Qx QT9x is close. I finesse.

against a random player i'll always play that he's more likely to double with 12 than with 10 and shape

[inquiry]

♠Kxxx ♥KQ8 ♦x ♣QT9xx or ♠Kxxx ♥KQ8 ♦Qx ♣QT9x

♠x ♥Jxxxx ♦Qxx ♣Kxxx or ♠x ♥Jxxxx ♦xx ♣Kxxxx

 

1. I am more likely to dbl with the singleton diamond than Qx, so that favors hook,

But before we decide, lets first decide if hearts could be 4-4 instead of the illustrated 5-2 everyone is assuming, and take a look at the carding.

 

Advancer doesn't have much, just the heart jack, club king, and MAYBE the diamond queen. This in fact favors his holding five hearts. Especially since with jack high, her really didn't want to ask specifically for a heart lead. Also, the only four card heart suit overcaller can have is specifically KQ98 of hearts. But with five hearts and only four clubs, does advanacers club plays/discards make sense?

 

Let's examine that issue.

 

Trick 2 the club switch was the ten, obviously from QT9(x's) as we discovered. The king play is automatic.

 

Trick 4, advancer throws away the club 7. First, what is this? Lavinthal showing now the heart jack after denying a heart ACE at trick one (with the 3), or was the heart 3 "count" at trick one? Knowing their carding agreements would be helpful. I am however willing to accept at this point advancer has five hearts.

 

Trick 5 cashing the club QUEEN, with Q9 tenace over our marked jack is not curious, as from the bidding and play we are now marked with either 4-2-5-2 or 4-2-6-1. The jack falling from declarer now makes the hand double dummy for the defense.

 

Trick 7. club 5 discard. We haven't seen the club two or club nine, we are certain both of those are with overcaller. The missing club is the club 6. I think if advancer had the six and five, he would have discarded the six to give the impression that was his last club (unless it is double, double cross--fortunately, no one tries that on me)... soo....

 

I hook the diamond based on bidding and on play.