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Declarer play problem from Vugraph


han

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This is a hand from the senior Germany-Netherlands match on vugraph. I thought that declarer would make it but in fact they went down at both tables, shows what I know. Here are the hands:

 

[hv=d=s&v=n&n=skj43ha8dj862cqj10&s=sq976h97daq754ca8]133|200|Scoring: IMP

1D - (Dbl - 1S - (2H)

2S - (3H) - 4S - all pass[/hv]

 

Note that north is declarer. The bidding is identical at both tables and east leads a heart to west's king. Say you duck once to cut communications and west returns a heart.

 

You play a spade, west wins the ace and returns a spade, east following. How do you play now?

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This hand hinges around playing the diamonds. There are basically three lines:

 

1: Start with a diamond to queen. Works if 2-2 with K onside or K singleton onside.

 

2a: Start with diamond jack. Cover king with ace and plan to cash queen next.

 

2b: Start with diamond jack. If king covers and 9 or T is played, finesse to 7 next.

 

Because of restricted choice, 2b is superior to 2a (two possible singletons versus one T9 tight).

 

Both lines 1 and 2b win in 4 of 16 cases. Without any additional information line 1 is a tiny bit better because 2-2 breaks are more likely than 3-1 breaks in a vacuum.

 

However, west made a takeout double and then raised 2 to 3. If K was an honest card, he seems to be missing the Q. And we need him not to hold both minor suit kings (else we have no real play). So this seems to imply that he has made a takeout double and raised partner's response to the three level on 11 hcp. He seems to have 3+4. This kind of bidding with 3433 distribution is awfully pushy, so I think we can rule out west holding T9x (in fact, a singleton diamond is something of a favorite). So line 2b should be the winner here.

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Drawing trumps, then ace and another diamond works against

Axx KJxx Kx Kxxx   xx Qxxxx xx xxxx

Axx KJxx K Kxxxx   xx Qxxxx xxx xxx

 

Running J (planning to take two finesses) works against

Axx KJxx 10 Kxxxx   xx Qxxxx K9x xxxx

Axx KJxx 9 Kxxxx    xx Qxxxx K10x xxxx

Axx KJxx K Kxxxx    xx Qxxxx xxx xxx

 

I'm not playing for diamonds 2-2 with the king onside - that would make West's 3 bid look too thin.

 

I think the simple line of running J is better - East's bid looks more believable with a side king.

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