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Tough.

 

On the one hand, partner could have something like AQxx xxx Qxx xxx, where 6 is a good contract.

 

On the other hand, partner could have some garbage like Jxx xxxx xxx xxx, where 2 is in jeopardy.

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Guest Jlall
I'd try 4. We have the type of hand where if we get good splits we probably will make 4, and if we don't we will probably go down in 3 (opposite partner's marginal passes of 3).
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unfav, MPs KT73 A5 AKT853 T

p-(2)-X-(p)

2-(p)-?

IMO 3 = 10, 4 = 8, 3 = 6, 4 = 4.

It depends on your agreements if any. For example is 3 forcing? 4 / 4 a splinter / fit jump?

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IMO 3 = 10, 4 = 8, 3 = 6, 4 = 4.

It depends on your agreements if any. For example is 3 forcing? 4 / 4 a splinter / fit jump?

Why does 3 get the top score? Does it show 4-card support? I don't think so. Nobody I know plays that 3 in this auction is forcing so it isn't relevant. And why would you bid 4, whatever it means, in the best case you end up in 4 anyway and the opponents will know how to defend.

 

I would generally rather read the arguments for your choice than reading how many points you give your third and fourth choice. Who cares?

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IMO 3 = 10, 4 = 8, 3 = 6, 4 = 4.

It depends on your agreements if any. For example is 3 forcing? 4 / 4 a splinter / fit jump?

Why does 3 get the top score? Does it show 4-card support? I don't think so. Nobody I know plays that 3 in this auction is forcing so it isn't relevant. And why would you bid 4, whatever it means, in the best case you end up in 4 anyway and the opponents will know how to defend.

 

I would generally rather read the arguments for your choice than reading how many points you give your third and fourth choice. Who cares?

My replies reflect the kind of answer I like when I post a problem. Usually I know that the option I chose was less than ideal. I want to know is how close my choice was to what others consider to be better choices. Marking the various options provides the most useful feedback.

 

I divulge more "reasoning" than most; but here (as explained) your choice depends on your partnership agreements. FWIW mine are

  • Direct raises like 3 and 4: unconstructive.
  • Cue-bid: unassuming, usually a good hand with 4 card support or asking for a stop. If partner rebids 3, you can pass (although you might still bid 4 here).
  • NT bids 19+HCP.
  • New suit virtually forcing.
  • Jumps show 3+support and a good 6+suit.

But these are only partnership agreements; manifestly not to everybody's taste; so a tedious explanation seemed inappropriate :rolleyes:

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I still don't see for the life of me what 3 gains over raising directly??
Et tu Josh :D

IMO 3

  • Helps partner to judge a possibly competitive auction by showing a defensive/offensive hand.
  • Gives partner the chance to co-operate in slam exploration, below game If he has much to spare for his 2 bid,
  • (At the other extreme) Allows you to subside in 3, if you judge your hand worth only 3 (as others do).
  • Distinguishes
    Pre-empts like QJxxx - KQJx KQJx or
    KJTxx - QJTxx KQx from
    Powerouses like KTxx Ax AKTxxx x or even
    Axxx x AKxx AKxx

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Hmm ok, you keep looking for slam with your 14 if you want opposite partner's weakest bid, and hopefully you will be able to distinguish the hand(s?) that makes slam from the vast majority that don't. But do you really think

 

p (2) X (P)

2 (P) ??

 

is a "possibly competitive auction"? I guess if you give them a 3 bid to double it gets more competitive...

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Hmm ok, you keep looking for slam with your 14 if you want opposite partner's weakest bid, and hopefully you will be able to distinguish the hand(s?) that makes slam from the vast majority that don't. But do you really think

 

p (2) X (P)

2 (P) ??

 

is a "possibly competitive auction"? I guess if you give them a 3 bid to double it gets more competitive...

To some extent it is a matter of judgement, and we can agree to differ :D
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Anyone slamming with this should go read this thread. Over there in almost the identical auction the other hand has Q222, Txx, Q, AT9xx and people are split between 2S and 3S. I'd almost say that the linked thread contains the facing hand for this, but the scoring is different and there advancer is an unpassed hand. That facing hand makes me think that 3S is plenty here; if partner remotely close to good as that hand he will accept and we don't have much play facing less.
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Anyone slamming with this should go read this thread.  Over there in almost the identical auction the other hand has Q222, Txx, Q, AT9xx and people are split between 2S and 3S.  I'd almost say that the linked thread contains the facing hand for this, but the scoring is different and there advancer is an unpassed hand.  That facing hand makes me think that 3S is plenty here; if partner remotely close to good as that hand he will accept and we don't have much play facing less.

I confess, I started to quote the same thread :) but discovered that the hand therein

Qxxx Txx Q ATxxx would rather undermine the slam-try argument :)

There do exist seemingly weaker hands that would make slam a reasonable proposition. For instance

AQxx xxx Qxx xxx

Admittedly, hands can usually be concocted to support doubtful Bridge arguments :(.

 

It might be more pertinent to run a simulation (in the given context) of hands in the range 0-9 HCP with 8-12 losers and 4+ (to include hands like those above on which, apparently, many experts bid 2).

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