How low do you go?

[pclayton]

Thanks for all the responses folks. Had no idea this simple hand would generate so much interest ;)

 

I did open 1N at the table, 2♣-2♦-3NT, and partner flopped a decentish 12 count so bringing home 10 or 11 tricks was no real challenge.

 

Wasn't 100% on my judgement at the time, since I don't play much 15-17 in serious partnerships any more. (Usually some sort of mini or weak with a big ♣ system).

My partners usually open "decentish" 12 counts in 2nd seat. My sense if you open 1 of a minor that you will get to 3N anyway.

 

Still I appreciate Fred's views and I will factor them into future decisions.

[Guest Jlall]

I just sent me regular partner (Brad Moss) an e-mail asking him to describe in 1 word how he would characterize a 1NT opening with the hand in question.

 

His word: indicated

 

Shortly after that he changed his word to: obvious

 

Of course this doesn't really prove anything, but I thought it was interesting. It should be noted that Brad is probably the single most aggressive 1NT opener among leading USA players (with the possible exception of Joe Grue).

 

He also happens to be an extremely gifted natural player. When Brad has an opinion about what a hand is worth, I have learned over the years that he is usually right ;)

 

Fred Gitelman

Bridge Base Inc.

www.bridgebase.com

Lol, with all due respect asking Brad whether he would upgrade a hand to 1N doesn't prove much of a point since we both know that if it's at all reasonable to upgrade Brad would upgrade it. This is the equivalent of asking Marty Bergen if he would preempt on a hand. Assuming it's a real problem, I'm sure he would preempt with it. You could just as easily ask Bart Bramley if he would upgrade this hand and I bet would not, because he upgrades much less than most experts.

 

You say this hand is just as good as many 15's such as AJx AQx Axxx xxx. Obviously if that is factual you should open 1N as you do. I don't understand why you think people are not opening this hand 1N because it's 14 HCP rather than people not thinking that it is worth 15 HCP.

[bid_em_up]

I'd open the hand in question 1N in all seats.

 

So what if its a point shy? It has only 3 cards that are 6 or below, these are great filler cards and more than make up for the missing point. It has 3 cards in both majors (you dont care if you get transferred into either major suit, it will be 5-3 fit). 1N is the most accurately descriptive bid (balanced hand, so what if you're missing a jack) and is also the bid MOST likely to get you to a makeable game when there is one. 3N isn't necessarily the only makeable game, 4M is certainly well within reason still.

 

jmoo.

[fred]

I don't understand why you think people are not opening this hand 1N because it's 14 HCP rather than people not thinking that it is worth 15 HCP.

I don't think that.

 

I actually think that most of the people who opted for 1D think the hand is not worth 15 HCP. The very fact that this hand was presented as a problem means that the OP was asking "is this hand worth 15 HCP?". I believe that is the question that everyone has been trying to answer.

 

I was surprised that so many strong thoughtful players opened 1D because (for me) this is a fairly simple hand-evaluation problem and (for me) it is pretty close to "obvious" (Brad's word) that this hand is better for notrump purposes than its HCP count suggests.

 

Fred Gitelman

Bridge Base Inc.

www.bridgebase.com

[pclayton]

I don't understand why you think people are not opening this hand 1N because it's 14 HCP rather than people not thinking that it is worth 15 HCP.

I don't think that.

 

I actually think that most of the people who opted for 1D think the hand is not worth 15 HCP. The very fact that this hand was presented as a problem means that the OP was asking "is this hand worth 15 HCP?". I believe that is the question that everyone has been trying to answer.

 

I was surprised that so many strong thoughtful players opened 1D because (for me) this is a fairly simple hand-evaluation problem and (for me) it is pretty close to "obvious" (Brad's word) that this hand is better for notrump purposes than its HCP count suggests.

 

Fred Gitelman

Bridge Base Inc.

www.bridgebase.com

Fair enough. The OP's hand is worth an upgrade to a 15 count. We all can appreciate that.

 

What bothers me is that in all the vugraphs that I ever watched, I don't think I have ever seen a 15 count get downgraded to a non-1N opening or even an 18 count get downgraded into a NT opening.

 

From an evaluation standpoint, if a 14 (or even some 13's) can get promoted, how come a stronger hand (from strictly a 4321 standpoint) is never downgraded?

 

In Nigel's post he mentions being slave to a Jack. If we all admit that evaluation is a qualitative process, then why isn't downgrading occurring more?

[MickyB]

What bothers me is that in all the vugraphs that I ever watched, I don't think I have ever seen a 15 count get downgraded to a non-1N opening or even an 18 count get downgraded into a NT opening.

 

I downgraded a 4333 15-count on vugraph - well, actually I miscounted my points, but it's near enough the same thing :o

[OleBerg]

 

From an evaluation standpoint, if a 14 (or even some 13's) can get promoted, how come a stronger hand (from strictly a 4321 standpoint) is never downgraded?

 

In Nigel's post he mentions being slave to a Jack. If we all admit that evaluation is a qualitative process, then why isn't downgrading occurring more?

An explanation could be, that playing a 15-17 nt we have decided that even the lousiest 15-count hand, is worth 1nt.

So we never have to downgrade. But for consistiency, we quite often has to upgrade a 14-count, and occasionally a 13-count.

 

The real thruth is, of course, that we are all overbidders.