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How low do you go?


TylerE

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I'd try a 15-17 1N with it. If you concede that Aces are undervalued and tens and nines are of some limited use even though they count for nothing, then just how many do you have to add before upgrading. I think this one qualifies - just.
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Just a thought from the peanut gallery: I think that if one of the red tens was a black instead it might be more worthy of an upgrade, say AJ10 942 A1097 AJ6 - same pips, same distribution. I would open that hand 1NT under the given conditions, but I don't think the OP hand is worth 1NT.
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I found these two forum discussions convincing. :)

 

"I don't feel strongly between 1♦ and 1♣, but 1NT is a gross misevaluation of this hand."

 

"Definitely 1NT for me, not even close with 4333."

 

:)

edited my post. Meant definitely not 1NT.

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Since I seem to be alone in believing that 1NT is the right opening bid and opening 1D and rebidding notrump a clear underbid, I did a simulation (1000 deals).

I specified for partner a balanced hand with exactly 10 HCP. This should be a fair test.

If you open 1NT you will play 3NT while if you open 1D and rebid 1NT you are likely to miss game.

I also specified that partner will have at most 4 cards in a major.

 

Result:

 

Double dummy 3NT would make in 592 cases and fail in 408 cases. The average number of tricks available for declarer in a notrump contract was 8.7 tricks

Since double dummy analysis clearly favors the defense the result at the table would be even more in favor of 3NT making.

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Since I seem to be alone in believing that 1NT is the right opening bid and opening 1D and rebidding notrump a clear underbid, I did a simulation (1000 deals). I specified for partner a balanced hand with exactly 10 HCP.  This should be a fair test. If you open 1NT you will play 3NT while if you open 1D and rebid 1NT you are likely to miss game. I also specified that partner will have at most 4 cards in a major. Result: Double dummy 3NT would make in 592 cases and fail in 408 cases.  The average number of tricks available for declarer in a notrump contract was 8.7 tricks
Thank you rhm :) Chastening but interesting that most of us can be so wrong ;)
Since double dummy analysis clearly favors the defense the result at the table would be even more in favor of 3NT making.
Intuitively that conjecture seem reasonable. Any experimental data to back it?
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