Play it

[Guest Jlall]

[hv=n=skjxhq9xdaxcj9xxx&s=sqxxhajxxxxdqjckx]133|200|Scoring: MP[/hv]

 

Bidding:

 

1H X XX p

p 2D 3H p

p p

 

You made a conservative decision to pass 3H so there you are. LHO leads LHO leads the D6 (4th best). Plan your play (if you finesse D at trick 1 it works).

[inquiry]

I hate matchpoint problems like these... sigh. On the brightside, I think i am glad we are in only 3♥.

 

Ok, first for diamonds, i will hook, so i assume i win the QUEEN in my hand (surely west did not bid 2♦ on Txxxx suit). If i am not, i am losing 1♦, 2♣, 1♠ and a likely heart. I will probably play heart ace in this case hoping to drop stiff king offside, because if RHO has diamond King i think i need that.

 

However, after the diamond Queen wins trick one, against average or worse defenders I will play just as I would in four hearts. That is, I would try to setup a swindle of sorts. I will play my middle spade to the king. And then, still not cashing diamonds, I would try the impressive heart queen from dummy, letting it run if not covered..otherwise winning the ACE. ((The technical play in hearts is low to the JACK, but since WEST can not have KTxx (or at least, i don't think so with EAST passing the redouble), it is safe enough to start the queen. )) Next I would again leave the diamond alone, and lead a second low spade towards the jack-x. It is unlikely WEST will be fooled, but if he ducks in the hopes of his partner winning the queen for a club through, I will win the jack, cash the diamond ACE, and then throw west in with the Spade Queen. Anyone who allows themselves to be endplayed in spades like that gets what they should have (note he can win the ace and exit to his partners presumed spade for a club through). I am thinking I will lose a heart to EAST KT8 or KT7 eventually.

 

The question is can I find a "safer" for 9 tricks in 3♥ against strong defenders? First the swindle has next to no chance to work against fair or better defenders. And it does run the slight risk of suffering a spade ruff, should EAST have xx of hearts and WEST Kx, along with a doubleton spade. So in 3♥, after the diamond wins, perhaps the "safest" way to nine tricks seems to be heart ACE the heart. If EAST has king-x or K87, you are getting a lowish board anyway. If hearts are 3-1, this gives you 2S, 2D, 5H, for your nine tricks, and 10 if you drop the stiff heart king. Problem is, this line protects against the wildly unlikely hand with East being 2-2-4-5, which is difficult to believe, as west would have made a take out double with 5-2-5-1. So against good players, I would win trick two in dummy with diamond ace and advance the heart queen instead of messing around with spades... on good day, I pin the heart ten.

[benlessard]

The problem i see is that if Q of D, A of D, spades. eliminating the S ending in dummy and run the Q of H (if west has showned all the points) to pick up stiff T or to endplay stiff KH he will exit with a 4th round of spades. But maybe its the best line anyway since LHO can be 3154. I think that he 2D bid tend to show 3154 i guess that anyhand with 4S will bid 1S.

 

I think a fair amount of pair will bid in 3H so i dont see the need to make any safety play.

[Halo]

I think this is a classic position.

 

I believe everyone is in 4H, and I should just play exactly the way they would.

 

Whether I am right in judging the auction, or able to work out how to play 4H is a different issue.

[Guest Jlall]

I  think this is a classic position.

 

I believe everyone is in 4H, and I should just play exactly the way they would.

 

Whether I am right in judging the auction, or able to work out how to play 4H is a different issue.

And how would everyone else play this? If everyone else is actually in 4H then you are supposed to play as safe as possible to make 3, but that is not really a relevant way of thinking since you are always making 3 on this hand so you should just try to maximize the number of tricks you take. What is the best way to do that?

[Halo]

I  think this is a classic position.

 

I believe everyone is in 4H, and I should just play exactly the way they would.

 

Whether I am right in judging the auction, or able to work out how to play 4H is a different issue.

And how would everyone else play this? If everyone else is actually in 4H then you are supposed to play as safe as possible to make 3, but that is not really a relevant way of thinking since you are always making 3 on this hand so you should just try to maximize the number of tricks you take. What is the best way to do that?

Not sure about the logic re 'relevant thinking' but OK..

 

I win the Queen of diamonds, Ace of diamonds, Queen of hearts. That's my idea of how the rest of the field will try to make their 4H.

[xcurt]

I take it we don't have the H8 or H7.

 

I'll play LHO for a stiff heart, not the king. LHO should have 4x5x or 4x6x shape. Cross and lead the HQ hoping to pin the T, or the 8 if we have the 7. LHO doesn't need the HK for his double and Kxx/T and Txx/K are equally likely a priori.

 

I guess I should cross by leading a spade to the king. Off chance against bad opponents I could later lead a spade to the jack inducing a duck and then throw LHO in on the third spade. This might even legitimately gain a trick (ie no further defensive errors after not flying SA on the second round) if the layout is Axxx, x, Kxxxx, Axx facing xxx, KT8, xxxx, Qxx or so.

 

I don't have enough dummy entries to strip the pointed suits before taking this play in case I blow to stiff K, with the intention of recovering the trick on the forced club return.

 

Edit -- I forgot to add, we have 23 HCP, soft values, and duplicated shortness. Against that we have a 6-3 major-suit fit, but I see no reason to expect the whole field to be in game. Also, it is possible to go down in 3H if we have no spots and RHO has xxx, KT87, xxxx, xx or so.

[skjaeran]

And how would everyone else play this? If everyone else is actually in 4H then you are supposed to play as safe as possible to make 3,

That's a common misconception. You're not competing with those in 4♥ anymore. You've already beat them or lost to them in the bidding. You should still play to maximize your score, compared to those few (if any) who hasn't bid to 4♥.

 

It's when you have overbid you should play different - then you need to find a way to make your contract, since else you're in for a bottom.

[Guest Jlall]

And how would everyone else play this? If everyone else is actually in 4H then you are supposed to play as safe as possible to make 3,

That's a common misconception. You're not competing with those in 4♥ anymore. You've alreado beat them or lost to them in the bidding. You should still play to maximize your score, compared to those few (if any) who hasn't bid to 4♥.

 

It's when you have overbid you should play different - then you need to find a way to make your contract, since else you're in for a bottom.

No, it's not. It's a common misconception that if you're in 3H you should play for a layout where four goes down.

 

It is not untrue that IF everyone else is actually in 4H (I worded that very carefully), then you should play safe to make 3. This is because if you go down 1 in 3H, you will tie people who manage to go down 1 in 4H (on misdefense or whatever). Please note that I said the words "if everyone else is actually in 4H..,"

 

In fact, my whole post was trying to point out the error in thinking that he made (which is the error you thought I was making).

[skjaeran]

But you never know that everyone is in 4♥. There's always a few who for some reason didn't get to game. If you play safely to make and there's ten tricks there, you lose the few matchpoints you were going to get.

[Guest Jlall]

But you never know that everyone is in 4♥. There's always a few who for some reason didn't get to game. If you play safely to make and there's ten tricks there, you lose the few matchpoints you were going to get.

???????????

 

What do the words

 

if EVERYONE is ACTUALLY in 4H mean to you?

 

IF= hypothetically, if.

EVERYONE= all the pairs.

ACTUALLY= I REALLY REALLY mean if everyone, I am not exaggerating.

 

I was responding to his claim that he believes everyone will be in 4H, and how that would affect his line of play. I was pointing out that he was wrong, even under his erroneous belief. I then said THAT IS NOT RELEVANT, and I in no way advocated doing what was suggested in the hypothetical, BECAUSE IT IS NOT RELEVANT TO REALITY.

 

I then said "you should play to maximize your tricks."

 

WHAT ARE YOU SMOKING??

[gnasher]

There is a school of thought that says East's pass just suggests two places to play or no places to play, and is consistent with four spades and a four-card minor. I expect, though, that most Easts would bid 1♠ if they had four. Also, with 3154 RHO might have tried 1NT rather than 2♦.

 

Given that, the most likely distributions are 4153 - 3343 and 4252 - 3244.

 

If LHO has ♥Kx and ♠A, I can eliminate the pointed suits and endplay him with two rounds of trumps. That approach also works against singleton king of hearts. If RHO has Kx/K10/Kxx, I can pick up trumps for no loser by running the queen. These layouts seem to be symmetrical.

 

The elimination also works when LHO has the unlikely Axxx xx K10xxx Ax (RHO is endplayed when he wins the second trump), and it's more fun, so I do that.

 

Playing against many English pairs a takeout double on 4252 would be unlikely, so I might well do something different.

[Halo]

All getting a bit overwrought?

 

If I cannot guarantee to make 3H, then doing what everyone in 4H does, gets me the best possible score against them.

 

Yes, if I'm wrong and there are significant numbers not in game, that is different.

 

If I can guarantee to make 3H, that is different again.

 

I

[benlessard]

I expect, though, that most Easts would bid 1♠ if they had four. Also, with 3154 RHO might have tried 1NT rather than 2♦.

 

Given that, the most likely distributions are 4153 - 3343 and 4252 - 3244.

 

 

You are right i somewhat screw up this 1.

 

RHO pass has to show either 4S and a 5m or 3S and at least 1 4 card minor. So the only distribution seems to be

 

4153 ----3343

[Guest Jlall]

i made a mistake in my previous post.

 

RHO pass has to show either 4S and a 5m or 3S and at least 1 4 card minor. So the only distribution seems to be

 

4153 ----3343

Why is 4252 and 3244 not possible?

[benlessard]

yep if 4254 he has to have the K of H. A of H and H seems better then running the Q.

[inquiry]

Ok... another possibility,

 

Win ♦Q

Play spade to King

Cash Diamond ACE

Continue spades

West must win, and presumably will exit spade.

Now play heart ace and a heart

 

This is the same 9 tricks if EAST has three hearts to KTx

This is 10 tricks if WEST has singleton heart king or doubleton heart king

This is same down one if EAST has KT87 in hearts

 

It loses a trick to WEST holding exactly stiff TEN of hearts, but gains a trick when he has stiff or doubleton KING

[Finch]

It's completely irrelevant how many of the rest of the field are in 4H.

[xcurt]

Ok... another possibility,

 

Win ♦Q

Play spade to King

Cash Diamond ACE

Continue spades

West must win, and presumably will exit spade.

Now play heart ace and a heart

 

This is the same 9 tricks if EAST has three hearts to KTx

This is 10 tricks if WEST has singleton heart king or doubleton heart king

This is same down one if EAST has KT87 in hearts

 

It loses a trick to WEST holding exactly stiff TEN of hearts, but gains a trick when he has stiff or doubleton KING

 

But this play drops a trick to Axxx, xx, Kxxxx, AQ (but not to Axxx, Tx, Kxxxx, AQ in practice).

 

There are two missing pieces of information -- do we have any relevant spots? and how good are the opponents? Assuming random unknown opponents in a random matchpoint event, I would play them to overcall and not double with 4252 shape.

 

Curt

[gnasher]

But this play drops a trick to Axxx, xx, Kxxxx, AQ (but not to Axxx, Tx, Kxxxx, AQ in practice).

We're missing the eight (see below), so running the queen will pick up 10x-Kx

 

There are two missing pieces of information -- do we have any relevant spots? and how good are the opponents?  Assuming random unknown opponents in a random matchpoint event, I would play them to overcall and not double with 4252 shape.

If we had any relevant spots Justin would have given them to us. You can assume that all the "x"s are twos. And, surely, in a forum called "Advanced and Expert-Class Bridge", we can assume that they're good players unless it says otherwise.

[Halo]

Meanwhile,

 

Although playing for the throw in is more fun, is it not more or less the same as playing the queen and running it (singleton King = singleton ten, and Kx = xx).

 

And if doubler is 5224, unlikely of course, messing with spades is a potential downside.

 

And for Frances, I'm not sure that the absoluteness of your statement is supportable, given my case above. Whenever you really are in the wrong contract at Pairs there are issues to deal with.l

[xcurt]

If we had any relevant spots Justin would have given them to us.  You can assume that all the "x"s are twos.  And, surely, in a forum called "Advanced and Expert-Class Bridge", we can assume that they're good players unless it says otherwise.

I know Justin is very good about this, but the only relevant heart holding where all the x's are indeed small is we have AQJ965432 and they have KT87. Also Justin mentioned that we cannot go light in 3H, suggesting that we at least have the 7 in one of the hands.

 

Also, given the form of scoring I was guessing Justin played this in a club matchpoint game in NYC. It's been a long time since I played in a club matchpoint game in NYC, but the fields can be of very mixed standard. Of course in such a field you have to beat the living dogsnot out of the weak pairs if you hope to win, hence my earlier thinking about playing for a defensive error -- 2 spade ducks and then the throw-in.

[nige1]

[hv=n=skjxhq9xdaxcj9xxx&s=sqxxhajxxxxdqjckx]133|200|Scoring: MP

1♥ _X (XX) _P

(_P) 2D 3♥ AP

You made a conservative decision to pass 3H so there you are. LHO leads LHO leads the D6 (4th best). Plan your play (if you finesse D at trick 1 it works).[/hv]

LHO's shape is likely to be 3253 (although he may be 3154 or 3163) so agree with Inquiry: Cash ♦s and eliminate ♠ (risking an unlikely ruff) before tackling ♥, guessing to play ♥A and another.

[kenrexford]

There seems to be a lot of conflicting nuances here.

 

LHO doubled and then bid 2♦ after the pass around. That's strange. I can understand not bidding 1♠ for the obvious reason (three spades), but 2♦ rather than 1NT is somewhat odd as well. Sound like 3154.

 

That, however, gives Advancer 4342 pattern. His pass sounds like 4♠/5♦ when I see dummy. That's really weird.

 

I lean, because of this, to RHO having 3343 pattern, an unusual holding but allowed. That gives RHO 4153 pattern and a plan to ELC a 2♣ escape.

 

This seems possible and consistent with the auction also.

 

Not sure what this additional possibility means...