Will you raise 5H to 6H?

[cccheung]

You are south with - 987x AQxx KTxxx, vul vs non-vul. East dealer, bidding like this:

 

N E S W

- P P P

1H 2S 3S 4S

5H P ?

 

You have a convention that 4th hand open 2H is immediate. 12-15, 6# hearts.

 

Will you raise to 6H?

[NickRW]

Yeah, I'd go for it. Partner didn't double or pass, which suggests to me his/her hand is more offensively oriented - which hopefully means we're looking at nothing significant wasted in spades.

 

Nick

[pclayton]

No I pass.

 

Our void is a big asset, but there's a fair chance pard can infer it. Pard didn't make a FP, so pard isn't loaded. Beyond that, what else do I have that I haven't shown? With a little less, I would 4♥, not 3♠.

[Vilgan]

Pass. Pard could have pass/pulled if they wanted to invite slam. My void is nifty but I don't have much more (if any) than has been shown already.

[Guest Jlall]

pass

[655321]

Pass.

[NickRW]

Maybe you guys are reading something into this auction that I'm not - or vice versa.

 

If I set up my dealer prog to set N to 5 hearts, but not 12-15 6 hearts, W to 4 spades, less than 12hcp (no 3rd seat opening) and E to 6 spades, at least 4 hcp in spades, not 6 hcp total (no preempt opening despite the fav vuln), then I get 6H making in 73% of cases. These include quite a lot cases where N has hcp wasted in spades and might have not bid 5H

 

If I set N to no more than a jack in spades, 6H makes 97%.

 

Are you guys chicken - or do you read this auction differently to me.

 

Nick

[gnasher]

If I set up my dealer prog to set N to 5 hearts, but not 12-15 6 hearts, W to 4 spades, less than 12hcp (no 3rd seat opening) and E to 6 spades, at least 4 hcp in spades, not 6 hcp total (no preempt opening despite the fav vuln), then I get 6H making in 73% of cases.  These include quite a lot cases where N has hcp wasted in spades and might have not bid 5H

As described, your simulation will include all the hands where North would have made a slam try over 4♠, not to mention those where he would have bid slam all by himself. The question is whether to bid slam opposite a North hand that wasn't worth a slam try.

 

Also, East's reason for not preempting is more likely to be that he has side strength than that he has no strength.

If I set N to no more than a jack in spades, 6H makes 97%.

 

Are you guys chicken - or do you read this auction differently to me.

I imagine that they think that if their partner had a reasonable hand without spade wastage he would have said so.

[Halo]

Pass

 

Absolutely no way I am bidding slam from here.

[NickRW]

Also, East's reason for not preempting is more likely to be that he has side strength than that he has no strength.

Well, you could be right, but then I struggle to find hands on which I would consider 5H from North. Clearly I have different expectations to you guys.

[neilkaz]

PD with slam interest could bid 4NT or 5♣ or 5♦. What do I have that makes my hand more than a minimal GF..I showed GF w/3♠ ? Note that from the bidding he certainly is most likely to infer that I have a stiff or less in ♠.

 

PASS .. neilkaz ..

[inquiry]

No

[kenrexford]

I think bidding the slam is probably right.

 

Partner does not have a classic slam try, obviously. But, a classic slam try is not needed. What we need is a hand where partner, who expects to make 5♥ or fail by a trick, will be pleasantly surprised. He might infer the void in spades, but he might not. Even if he does, he might not expect this much in addition to the inferred void. This is a big hand contextually, IMO.

 

That said, I'm not sure what I would actually do here.

[rogerclee]

6♥ here is a huge break of partnership discipline. Pass seems very clear to me.

[Guest Jlall]

edit

[Echognome]

Je passe. Just because partner thinks 5♥ is right, doesn't mean he was bidding to make. With our hand, he just might.

[NickRW]

I think bidding the slam is probably right.

 

Partner does not have a classic slam try, obviously. But, a classic slam try is not needed. What we need is a hand where partner, who expects to make 5♥ or fail by a trick, will be pleasantly surprised. He might infer the void in spades, but he might not. Even if he does, he might not expect this much in addition to the inferred void. This is a big hand contextually, IMO.

 

That said, I'm not sure what I would actually do here.

Thank you Ken. At the risk of upsetting Justin, you're someone with a bit of imagination.

 

This hand was annoying me all night. This morning I try the North hand hcp outside spades + controls outside spades + distribution counted 1 for length and shortage 1/3/5 (i.e. points counted TSP style) = 20, no more than 3 hcp wasted in spades (which I didn't count anyway) and at least 5 hcp in hearts. This is about a Q above a min sound opening and starting to get into the realm of North taking a flier as far as I am concerned. DD analysis shows an 87% make for 6H and 20% for 7H. One more point and it shows 88% make for 6H and 22% for 7H

 

Nick

[gnasher]

This hand was annoying me all night. This morning I try the North hand hcp outside spades + controls outside spades + distribution counted 1 for length and shortage 1/3/5 (i.e. points counted TSP style) = 20, no more than 3 hcp wasted in spades (which I didn't count anyway) and at least 5 hcp in hearts. This is about a Q above a min sound opening and starting to get into the realm of North taking a flier as far as I am concerned. DD analysis shows an 87% make for 6H and 20% for 7H. One more point and it shows 88% make for 6H and 22% for 7H

Why don't you show us some of the hands where you think the bidding will go like this and slam makes?

[benlessard]

I pass.

 

We are a passed hand. So we have plenty of ways to show a fit. Even a direct 4H should show a decent hand (vul vs not), so for me 3S is a good GF raise with spades shortness (unless you have very specific requirement about PHJSF).

[rogerclee]

I think bidding the slam is probably right.

 

Partner does not have a classic slam try, obviously.  But, a classic slam try is not needed.  What we need is a hand where partner, who expects to make 5♥ or fail by a trick, will be pleasantly surprised.  He might infer the void in spades, but he might not.  Even if he does, he might not expect this much in addition to the inferred void.  This is a big hand contextually, IMO.

 

That said, I'm not sure what I would actually do here.

Thank you Ken. At the risk of upsetting Justin, you're someone with a bit of imagination.

 

This hand was annoying me all night. This morning I try the North hand hcp outside spades + controls outside spades + distribution counted 1 for length and shortage 1/3/5 (i.e. points counted TSP style) = 20, no more than 3 hcp wasted in spades (which I didn't count anyway) and at least 5 hcp in hearts. This is about a Q above a min sound opening and starting to get into the realm of North taking a flier as far as I am concerned. DD analysis shows an 87% make for 6H and 20% for 7H. One more point and it shows 88% make for 6H and 22% for 7H

 

Nick

I thought this was extremely obvious, but maybe it is not; double dummy analysis will very often over-predict the number of tricks you can make if you have all the cards. It is amazing how many tricks you can take when you have a lot of strength and can see all four hands!

[Guest Jlall]

This hand was annoying me all night. This morning I try the North hand hcp outside spades + controls outside spades + distribution counted 1 for length and shortage 1/3/5 (i.e. points counted TSP style) = 20, no more than 3 hcp wasted in spades (which I didn't count anyway) and at least 5 hcp in hearts. This is about a Q above a min sound opening and starting to get into the realm of North taking a flier as far as I am concerned. DD analysis shows an 87% make for 6H and 20% for 7H. One more point and it shows 88% make for 6H and 22% for 7H

 

Nick

You realize that partner knows almost 100 % that we have short spades and 4 trumps, and I dunno about 10 HCP give or take. So basically he knows a lot about our hand, and we know nothing about his. He chose not to involve us, and simply to bid 5H. What if partner ran simulations on our likely hands and determined that opposite them, 5H is 90 % to make. Should he not bid it because we will then run simulations that suggest 6H is 90 % to make? He is the one in charge of this one, not us. You are making very broad assumptions about his hand, and also are trying to quantify it with things that are not very good for doing so. There is a reason you have a hard time finding good constraints for what a 5H bid is; there are none. There is too wide of a range of hands that he can bid 5H with knowing what he does about our hand.

 

For instance, would he be crazy to bid 5H with Axx QJTxxx --- AJxx? I would think something like this would not be far from typical, and he may have even slam tried with a hand like this (since if we fit clubs well, slam should be good).

 

Your simulations are not taking into account partner bidding his hand, and involving us when he should.

[Guest Jlall]

Thank you Ken. At the risk of upsetting Justin, you're someone with a bit of imagination.

Lol. Why do you not take into account partner, who should expect the auction to always end when he bids 5H since he knows much about our hand and we know little about his, having imagination? You are not playing alone.

[NickRW]

Why don't you show us some of the hands where you think the bidding will go like this and slam makes?

 

OK. Actually I've just done another run with GIB - this one with north bidding on hcp + controls outside spades + dsitrib as before = 19. One point less. This shows a 61% make for 6H. Here are the first 5, straight as they come out of the dealer:

 

[hv=n=skthakj64dk75cq96&w=saj43ht2djt98cj42&e=sq987652hq5d43ca8&s=sh9873daq62ckt753]399|300|This one is a make[/hv]

 

[hv=n=skthakj64dk75cq96&w=saj43ht2djt98cj42&e=sq987652hq5d43ca8&s=sh9873daq62ckt753]399|300|This one is a make[/hv]

 

[hv=n=skthakj64dk75cq96&w=saj43ht2djt98cj42&e=sq987652hq5d43ca8&s=sh9873daq62ckt753]399|300|This one is a make[/hv]

 

[hv=n=skthakj64dk75cq96&w=saj43ht2djt98cj42&e=sq987652hq5d43ca8&s=sh9873daq62ckt753]399|300|This one is a make[/hv]

 

[hv=n=skthakj64dk75cq96&w=saj43ht2djt98cj42&e=sq987652hq5d43ca8&s=sh9873daq62ckt753]399|300|This one is a make[/hv]

 

That is 3 out 5 of these - same % as for 100 hands. And these are what I think of as really scraping the barrel for North's bid.

[NickRW]

Thank you Ken.  At the risk of upsetting Justin, you're someone with a bit of imagination.

Lol. Why do you not take into account partner, who should expect the auction to always end when he bids 5H since he knows much about our hand and we know little about his, having imagination? You are not playing alone.

Well, because I would expect partner to double with anything much more in spades and to pass with anything much less in total. Indeed, partner can't get much less than the examples I've given. Also partner can't necessarily infer a void unless he has 3.

[Guest Jlall]

1) None of your hands are relevant. Many of them are not 5H bids for north, some not consistent with the opponents bidding.

 

2) lol double dummy analysis.