gwnn Posted May 28, 2008 Report Share Posted May 28, 2008 10 more days or so. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
helene_t Posted May 28, 2008 Report Share Posted May 28, 2008 Why is Netherlands refered to as "someone else"? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whereagles Posted May 28, 2008 Report Share Posted May 28, 2008 Why is Netherlands refered to as "someone else"? Well, duh! they're outsiders :rolleyes: (ok, poll choice limitations) Winner: POR :rolleyes: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
han Posted May 28, 2008 Report Share Posted May 28, 2008 My vote gave my choice the plurality. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimG Posted May 28, 2008 Report Share Posted May 28, 2008 Why is Netherlands refered to as "someone else"? Norway and Netherlands got about 25% of the vote when this poll appeared in "offline bridge". Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
helene_t Posted May 28, 2008 Report Share Posted May 28, 2008 Yes but unfortunately (?) Bertens/Bakkeren don't play footie. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
han Posted May 28, 2008 Report Share Posted May 28, 2008 Do you know this for a fact Helene? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whereagles Posted May 28, 2008 Report Share Posted May 28, 2008 yes. their beer belly doesn't let them see the ball when it's on the floor :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aberlour10 Posted May 28, 2008 Report Share Posted May 28, 2008 someone else (cryptic) = Oranje boven! :) :P Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
helene_t Posted May 28, 2008 Report Share Posted May 28, 2008 Do you know this for a fact Helene? Oeps, http://www.do.nl/nieuwsklok/w0506.htm But as for Huub Bertens I could find no footie related links. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
helene_t Posted May 28, 2008 Report Share Posted May 28, 2008 Btw, I was thinking about footie yesterday. My B.Sc. (math) supervisor wrote a book about the Poisson process, in which one of his examples was the 74 world champship. He claimed that the number of goals per match followed a Poisson distribution which he thought had some negative consequences for the seriousness of the game. My Ph.D. supervisor (who used to play a lot of footie) disagreed strongly with my B.Sc. supervisor. Since one of the main themes for my own research is random effect GLMs with a Poisson link, I would like to settle the issue by applying something similar to my modeling of last years Bermuda Bowl to footie. I have been somewhat pesimistic with respect to finding suitable data. But yesterday while I was looking at the advertisements of a bookmaker shop it struck me that it might be possible to use the odds to infer the stochastic model which the bookmakers subconsciously rely on. (Of course there is the danger that the bookmakers might use some statistical tool for computing the odds, in which case I would be reverse-engineering that tool which would not be so interesting). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gwnn Posted May 30, 2008 Author Report Share Posted May 30, 2008 I know that "equal matches" are usually 2.5-3-2.5 in terms of odds at bookmakers. You can just say that they are intelligent and they have a perfect probability model - if they say Germany-Poland 1.20-2.4-3.6 (just inventing 3 numbers) then it's probably right to accept that Germany are twice as likely to beat then than draw them and thrice as likely to win than lose. Of course you probably knew all this already, or possibly even said these things in your post, but I can't read scientific texts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gerben42 Posted May 30, 2008 Report Share Posted May 30, 2008 This poll is too early. There are too many variables to consider. I'll just say "Netherlands" but of the 16, at least 8 teams could win and it wouldn't be a big surprise. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
helene_t Posted May 30, 2008 Report Share Posted May 30, 2008 if they say Germany-Poland 1.20-2.4-3.6 (just inventing 3 numbers) then it's probably right to accept that Germany are twice as likely to beat then than draw them and thrice as likely to win than lose. Yes, agree. But the bookmakers also offer odds for Germany winning by 2-1, Poland by 1-0 etc. Now my idea is this: suppose Germany's number of goals is Poisson distributed with parameter lambdaG and Polands with lambdaP. Then the probability of that Germany winns by 2-1 is Poisson(2¦lambdaG) Poisson(1¦lambdaP). Since there are only two parameters in the model and more than two data points (say the bookmakers offer odds for some 8 different outcomes for each macth) then I could test the hypothesis that the bookmakers implicitly use my model. Alternatively they may use some other model, say a negative binomial model or a bivariate Poisson model (with correlation between the number of P-goals and G-goals, say if the wind blows heavily towards Poland's goal it increases the number of G-goals and decreases the number of P-goals. OTOH if the referee is obsessed with off-side cancellations of goals it will reduce both). Next step is to find out how they estimate lambdaP and lamdaG. Say we know then for this particular match and also for Germany-BurkinoFaso. Is it possible on the basis of those data points to predict the lambdas for Poland-BurkinoFaso? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rossoneri Posted May 31, 2008 Report Share Posted May 31, 2008 Then what about bogey teams? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gwnn Posted June 6, 2008 Author Report Share Posted June 6, 2008 What's with all the injuries? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike777 Posted June 6, 2008 Report Share Posted June 6, 2008 Why are the Dutch and The English horrible, really horrible at penalty shots? This has been going on for years now. ;) Hopefully they have trained and improved in this area. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aberlour10 Posted June 6, 2008 Report Share Posted June 6, 2008 Why are the Dutch and The English horrible, really horrible at penalty shots? This has been going on for years now. ;) Hopefully they have trained and improved in this area. Team England dont need it at the moment, they did not qualify for the Europeans.It's strange, english club teams dominate Europe but the national team plays total crap. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1eyedjack Posted June 6, 2008 Report Share Posted June 6, 2008 It's strange, english club teams dominate Europe but the national team plays total crap. maybe the english club teams are just full of brazilians, italians <insert country> etc? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gwnn Posted June 7, 2008 Author Report Share Posted June 7, 2008 It's strange, english club teams dominate Europe but the national team plays total crap. maybe the english club teams are just full of brazilians, italians <insert country> etc? Of course that's true to some extent, but they do have top notch players up there, especially ManU and Chelsea. They have at least one top10 player in the world for every position on the field (except of course goalies). They can be very smug though - auto proclaiming themselves as top favorites before every tournament they qualify to. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rossoneri Posted June 7, 2008 Report Share Posted June 7, 2008 Cannavaro's out! And given all the injuries, and some impressive forms of the underdogs, it wouldn't be that surprising if we have a "surprise winner", just like 2004. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aberlour10 Posted June 7, 2008 Report Share Posted June 7, 2008 Alea iacta est :P Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cjames Posted June 7, 2008 Report Share Posted June 7, 2008 Poor Switzerland :( Very very nice playing from them, too bad they didn't get their penalty :P Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gwnn Posted June 7, 2008 Author Report Share Posted June 7, 2008 I agree. It should have been a draw. Neither team deserved a win, morally speaking. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djehuti Posted June 8, 2008 Report Share Posted June 8, 2008 Portugal is playing sooooooooooo gooood :huh: I only see Portugal, Spain or Germany winning this one. France and Italy are allways serious contenders but they dont have a good calendar, and they are not as strong as previous years. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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