commentator lead problem

[han]

Watching the women trials I heard the theory that AJxx, K10xx or Q9xx are the worst holdings to lead from against NT.

 

What would you lead with

 

AJxx

K10xx

Q9xx

x

 

against 1NT-3NT at IMPs?

 

My double dummy analysis not surprisingly suggest that the small club is best but this seems very suspicious for real life. Apperently the second best double dummy lead is the spade ace followed by a low spade. Hearts is worst (well, the diamond queen is worst :)).

 

What would you lead at the table?

[kenrexford]

In practice, fourth heart.

[655321]

Low Heart.

 

Second choice low diamond. Leading from Axxx is to be avoided if possible.

 

I think as a general rule, choosing between honor(AKQ) fourth in two suits, you choose the suit with the lower honor in part because the higher honor is a potential entry to cash the long card in the suit led. Here, we have an Ace, so no reason to prefer the diamond lead over the heart.

[andy_h]

Wow really? I'll try and remember that! At the table I'd go for a heart too, with a diamond as my 2nd choice.

[whereagles]

what sort of theoretician was that??

 

Anyway, I lead a diamond for feeling reasons.

[han]

what sort of theoretician was that??

It was said that Kit Woolsey came with this after an extensive study. Kit wasn't commentating himself, some other commentator said it. I suspect that there is some truth to it.

 

It would be interesting to compare AJxx both with Axxx and AQxx.

[mike777]

Ty very interesting

If nothing else this may reinforce me to lead from my strongest suit vs nt when I have most of the hcp.

[jillybean]

I'm testing a new approach (not mine) to leads against nt contracts.

No more 4th best, I'm leading partners suit. So here I would lead the ♣x.

So far, I like it :)

[pclayton]

♥ lead. ♠ is 2nd.

[effervesce]

I personally hate leading 4 card suits against NT without a decent sequence. 3 or 5 card suits are fine, but not 4. (Unless I'm 5-4 in two suits, and during the bidding I've shown the 5 card suit - then I'd lead the 4 card suit).

 

Club for me.

[gnasher]

In your simulation all the suits are breaking badly, which probably explains why a passive lead does well. It might be more useful to do three separate simulations, with these hands:

  AJxx xxx Axxx xx

  K10xx xxx Axxx xx

  Q9xx xxx Axxx xx

[the hog]

I personally hate leading 4 card suits against NT without a decent sequence. 3 or 5 card suits are fine, but not 4. (Unless I'm 5-4 in two suits, and during the bidding I've shown the 5 card suit - then I'd lead the 4 card suit).

 

Club for me.

Wtf is this post?

You have 4H, the opps have not looked for a Major suit fit, though a 433 is possible. Surely a H is the best lead. A club is off with the pixies when the opponents have bid this way.

[PetteriLem]

If you lead a low club and your partner has clubs well covered, then you have struck a gold mine. It will be very difficult for declarer to develop tricks anywhere. On the other hand if declarer begins by cashing several clubs, what are you going to discard in so early position? I would lead a low heart, but experts know better :)

[rogerclee]

In your simulation all the suits are breaking badly, which probably explains why a passive lead does well.  It might be more useful to do three separate simulations, with these hands:

  AJxx xxx  Axxx xx

  K10xx xxx  Axxx xx

  Q9xx xxx  Axxx xx

Another issue is that with my 10 HCP, partner averages to be pretty weak. Thus the passive lead may be more attractive (actually not sure about this at all).

 

For the record I think a club lead is ridiculous, and I think it is awful that anybody in this thread has suggested it as even remotely reasonable at the table. The singleton lead will throw partner off way too often. I also don't want to deal with the psychological issues of leading a club and realizing 3NT is down 1 on a normal heart lead.

[Free]

I'm testing a new approach (not mine) to leads against nt contracts.

No more 4th best, I'm leading partners suit. So here I would lead the ♣x.

So far, I like it :)

I only do this when I'm weak. When strong, it's useless unless you want a passive lead.

 

♥ for me.

[benlessard]

If you lead H and partner has 1 card or a club trick.

 

A of H = 3H tricks + S + maybe Q of D or J of S.

A of D = not many chance of putting this contract down.

K of S = if the Q is in declarer then he might make 2H + 2D + 4 or 5 clubs before you make your spades.

A of C or well placed K of C= almost no chance of putting this contract down.

K of D = almost no chance of putting this one down.

 

If you lead S and partner has 1 card.

 

A of H = if partner has the T of S then maybe 3S + 2H.

A of D = if partner has the T of S then maybe 3S + H +A but unlikely.

K of S = hope for 4S and a slow trick.

A of C or well placed K of C= if partner has the T of S then maybe 3S + C + H.

K of D = if partner has the T of S then maybe 3S + H +A but unlikely.

 

 

 

If you lead D

A of H = almost no chance of putting this contract down.

A of D = hope for 3D +S +H but the K of need to be in declarer.

K of S = hope for 4S and a slow trick. except if declarer has 5 clubs trick.

A of C or well placed K of C= if partner has the T of S then maybe 3S + C + H.

K of D = almost no chance of putting this one down unless partner got the T of D

 

 

If partner has 2 minor cards but no club tricks.

 

QS,QH,JD,JH,

 

QS & QH favor a H lead.

QS & JD few chance of setting the contract.

QS & JH few chance of setting the contract.

 

So its either a H or a low S. On low H you are hoping that partner got the A and that you can make a slow trick, the problems is see is that declarer knowing you are short in clubs going to finesse you J of S or the Q of D.

 

A low spades is aiming for 4S (finessing the Q) and making the H king. (like on a passive lead) but maybe declarer can make 5C + 3D+1H if he finesse you Q of D.

 

It also aim at KQx in declarer (partner having the T) or Hx on dummy.

 

Im quite tired so ill need to recheck tommorow but so far a spade lead seems better.

[kenrexford]

I'm testing a new approach (not mine) to leads against nt contracts.

No more 4th best, I'm leading partners suit. So here I would lead the ♣x.

So far, I like it :)

If you consider the opponents "your partner," that should work well. LOL

[effervesce]

I personally hate leading 4 card suits against NT without a decent sequence. 3 or 5 card suits are fine, but not 4. (Unless I'm 5-4 in two suits, and during the bidding I've shown the 5 card suit - then I'd lead the 4 card suit).

 

Club for me.

Wtf is this post?

You have 4H, the opps have not looked for a Major suit fit, though a 433 is possible. Surely a H is the best lead. A club is off with the pixies when the opponents have bid this way.

Let's say partner has 5 points, the opponents 25. What's the chances of partner having a heart honor?

 

The outstanding honors are KQ spades, AQJ hearts, AKJ diamonds and AKQJ clubs (12 picture cards).

 

The relevant cards are A hearts, Q of hearts and J of hearts. The chances of partner holding AQ is nil, AJ is approximately 1/12C2, or 1/78. Let's be generous and make the chances of partner holding two honors in hearts as 3%.

 

What's the chances of partner holding 1 heart honor? Approximately 3C1*9C1/12C2, or 12%.

 

Thus the chances of partner holding anything in hearts is 15%. If partner has the jack, alot of the time the lead gives a free trick. Do you still think that a heart lead is 'obviously much better than a club', given it doesn't give a free trick about only about 10% of the time?

 

In essence, my argument is this: lead of a heart is probably best IFF (if and only if) their chances of making 3NT are >(80? 90?)%. Otherwise, a passive lead is best.

 

P.S. You'd better check your argument again (or at least put some clarifiers). Against 1NT-2NT, from AQxx KJxx Kx xxx what is your lead? By your argument you'd lead a heart or spade....

[655321]

Let's say partner has 5 points, the opponents 25. What's the chances of partner having a heart honor?

 

The outstanding honors are KQ spades, AQJ hearts, AKJ diamonds and AKQJ clubs (12 picture cards).

 

The relevant cards are A hearts, Q of hearts and J of hearts. The chances of partner holding AQ is nil, AJ is approximately 1/12C2, or 1/78. Let's be generous and make the chances of partner holding two honors in hearts as 3%.

 

What's the chances of partner holding 1 heart honor? Approximately 3C1*9C1/12C2, or 12%.

 

Thus the chances of partner holding anything in hearts is 15%. If partner has the jack, alot of the time the lead gives a free trick. Do you still think that a heart lead is 'obviously much better than a club', given it doesn't give a free trick about only about 10% of the time?

 

Granted, a club may be very stupid if dummy comes up with long clubs, and the lead sets up clubs for them or helps them pick the suit. But a club lead only has to lose less than 90% of the time to gain over a lead of a heart.

Are you sure you are comparing the right things?

 

I am assuming your arithmetic is correct (too hard for me :( ), but sometimes (often?) the contract is cold. Of the times the contract can be beaten, perhaps we need partner to have the right card(s), either a heart card, or enough stoppers that he can get in and establish our hearts before declarer has 9 tricks.

[the hog]

Not only that but what the heck are you going to start discarding on the Cs when the opps run the suit they have, Also if pd has length in H, then the H lead may well NOT give away a trick but may set up long cards.

[jdonn]

I will be diplomatic and call the post clamoring for an insane club lead "fuzzy math".

[effervesce]

Not only that but what the heck are you going to start discarding on the Cs when the opps run the suit they have, Also if pd has length in H, then the H lead may well NOT give away a trick but may set up long cards.

That is assuming they have clubs to run. On hands where the clubs run, of course a club lead is poor. OTOH, what if they don't have that many clubs to run though?

 

I'm not saying that a club is _the best_ lead, I'm just putting forth an argument why I'm leading one.

[effervesce]

Let's say partner has 5 points, the opponents 25. What's the chances of partner having a heart honor?

 

The outstanding honors are KQ spades, AQJ hearts, AKJ diamonds and AKQJ clubs (12 picture cards).

 

The relevant cards are A hearts, Q of hearts and J of hearts. The chances of partner holding AQ is nil, AJ is approximately 1/12C2, or 1/78. Let's be generous and make the chances of partner holding two honors in hearts as 3%.

 

What's the chances of partner holding 1 heart honor? Approximately 3C1*9C1/12C2, or 12%.

 

Thus the chances of partner holding anything in hearts is 15%. If partner has the jack, alot of the time the lead gives a free trick. Do you still think that a heart lead is 'obviously much better than a club', given it doesn't give a free trick about only about 10% of the time?

 

Granted, a club may be very stupid if dummy comes up with long clubs, and the lead sets up clubs for them or helps them pick the suit. But a club lead only has to lose less than 90% of the time to gain over a lead of a heart.

Are you sure you are comparing the right things?

 

I am assuming your arithmetic is correct (too hard for me :( ), but sometimes (often?) the contract is cold. Of the times the contract can be beaten, perhaps we need partner to have the right card(s), either a heart card, or enough stoppers that he can get in and establish our hearts before declarer has 9 tricks.

Yes, a heart lead is best if MOST of the time 3NT is cold, in which case yes, you do have to lead a heart. But if it's alot closer-ie 3NT is a close contract, then of course a passive lead is best.

 

So it boils down to this: do you think they are in a contract that is pushy? Club lead. If it's very likely to make - then an aggressive lead is best.

[effervesce]

I will be diplomatic and call the post clamoring for an insane club lead "fuzzy math".

 

Care to try and put forth some constructive posts rather than making lame strawmen? I'm not 'clamoring' for a club lead. Anything could be right or wrong. I'm just trying to put forth an explanation why Han's double-dummy simulation suggests a club lead is best.

 

Oh wait - it's 'absolutely clear' as put forth by Ron that a heart is right, and a club is wrong.

 

What's wrong with a spade lead btw? if partner has K of spades, it could very well be the winning lead (partner will have the K of spades approximately 15-20% of the time?) If I thought that they're likely to be making unless we quickly set up some tricks, perhaps a spade is better than a heart.

[the hog]

I will be diplomatic and call the post clamoring for an insane club lead "fuzzy math".

 

Care to try and put forth some constructive posts rather than making lame strawmen? I'm not 'clamoring' for a club lead. Anything could be right or wrong. I'm just trying to put forth an explanation why Han's double-dummy simulation suggests a club lead is best.

 

Oh wait - it's 'absolutely clear' as put forth by Ron that a heart is right, and a club is wrong.

 

What's wrong with a spade lead btw? if partner has K of spades, it could very well be the winning lead (partner will have the K of spades approximately 15-20% of the time?) If I thought that they're likely to be making unless we quickly set up some tricks, perhaps a spade is better than a heart.

I certainly agree that a S lead might be right. But the A of S may well be better used as an entry.The auction strongly suggests they have C - no stayman, so probably minors.