gwnn Posted May 22, 2008 Report Share Posted May 22, 2008 AK8xx JT9xxxxx p-3♥-p-p? all vul, imps Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andy_h Posted May 23, 2008 Report Share Posted May 23, 2008 I'm going to go for 3S. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Jlall Posted May 23, 2008 Report Share Posted May 23, 2008 I would crack it, I can imagine a big number a lot. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascade Posted May 23, 2008 Report Share Posted May 23, 2008 I would crack it, I can imagine a big number a lot. For which side? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neilkaz Posted May 23, 2008 Report Share Posted May 23, 2008 I would crack it, I can imagine a big number a lot. I have to also think that odd's favor X. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Jlall Posted May 23, 2008 Report Share Posted May 23, 2008 I would crack it, I can imagine a big number a lot. For which side? How can we be going for a big number very often? I mean it's possible RHO has a good hand with short hearts but then partner has very long hearts, and RHOs usually don't pass even with a good hand and 1 heart when their partner opens 3. Of course it's possible but I think it's like 10x as likely that we are getting them. Imagine partner made a penalty X of 3H, wouldn't you be licking your chops? I think that in this case partner has that pretty often, and if he doesn't he probably has a weak NT hand type and we should be ok then too if he bids something. I am only really worried about partner being weakish (like a 9 count) with 4 or 5 mediocre hearts and being endplayed into the pass. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pclayton Posted May 23, 2008 Report Share Posted May 23, 2008 I'd double too. 4♦ is an overbid and 3♠ aims for a very narrow target. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdonn Posted May 23, 2008 Report Share Posted May 23, 2008 I would crack it, I can imagine a big number a lot. For which side? Ours for sure. Double. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benlessard Posted May 23, 2008 Report Share Posted May 23, 2008 3S. Partner going to play me for a 5-5 or 5044. Any 6 card suit i can introduce naturally at the 3 level is a suit that i would have preempted at the 2 level. With a weakish suit I would have preempted or pass all the way. X is risking to enplayed partner into pass. QJxQxxxKQxAxxx 3Hx making & 4S making. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the hog Posted May 23, 2008 Report Share Posted May 23, 2008 3S. Partner going to play me for a 5-5 or 5044. Any 6 card suit i can introduce naturally at the 3 level is a suit that i would have preempted at the 2 level. With a weakish suit I would have preempted or pass all the way. X is risking to enplayed partner into pass. QJxQxxxKQxAxxx 3Hx making & 4S making. Agree. Would bid 3S. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hotShot Posted May 23, 2008 Report Share Posted May 23, 2008 All are red, this smells like some sort of 10-11-11-8 HCP distribution.Opener has an unbalanced hand and this hand is unbalanced too.If partner is sort of balanced, than RHO is unbalanced and we should be prepared for some unpleasant surprises. I pass. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
han Posted May 23, 2008 Report Share Posted May 23, 2008 I dealt 60 hands where opener either had a 7-card heart suit headed by at least one honor, or a 6-card hearts suit headed by at least 2 honors plus a 4- or 5-card side minor. This seems as reasonable as anything for a second seat 3H opener. Then, I threw out all the hands where the 3H did not look right or would have been raised to 4H. Then I only kept the deals where I thought partner would pass our double. This last was usually quite clear. This left 17 deals. On those hands 3H would probably be made 4 times, once with an overtrick. This is the overtrick hand: [hv=d=n&v=b&n=sak842hdj10942c742&w=sqj109h52dk5cak1086&e=s5hkq109843da73c93&s=s763haj76dq86cqj5]399|300|[/hv] I'll leave it to you to decide whether the 3H opening in second seat vulnerable is right and whether west would pass or raise to 4H. On the other 13 hands 3H would be set 1, 2 or 3 tricks. So on the hands where partner passes I'd say you come out a bit ahead. However, on the hands where partner pulls you come out ahead a lot, you almost always land in a good contract either in clubs, diamonds and spades. I think double is a clear winner. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Jlall Posted May 23, 2008 Report Share Posted May 23, 2008 I dealt 60 hands consistent with the auction and went through them manually. On 20 of those hands I judged that partner would pass the double, and on 7 of those hands 3HX would probably be made, 2 times with at least 1 overtrick. On the other 13 deals we probably beat them 1, 2 or 3 tricks. It seems that when partner passes we are slightly behind. However, on the 40 hands where partner pulls we are well ahead, this almost always leads to good contracts, either in spades, diamonds or clubs. I think double is a clear winner over pass or 3S. Well I am sceptical since so far you have given me some examples of 3H openers as x KQT9xxx Axx xx and --- AQJTxxx xx JT8x heh. It seems wrong to me that they are making overtricks on hands where partner has PASSED the double. I mean how could they not have bid 4H already if they make when one person is passing a t/o X which implies their trumps don't split very well. Imagine how many they'd make if trumps did split! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
han Posted May 23, 2008 Report Share Posted May 23, 2008 I edited the post Justin quoted. As I went through the hands more carefully my conclusions also changed. I made some blatant mistakes the first time. For example, once west had: 10xxx A AK AKQ108x. Believe it or not, that was one of the hands where 3HX made with overtricks :(. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bid_em_up Posted May 23, 2008 Report Share Posted May 23, 2008 3S. Partner going to play me for a 5-5 or 5044. Any 6 card suit i can introduce naturally at the 3 level is a suit that i would have preempted at the 2 level. With a weakish suit I would have preempted or pass all the way. X is risking to enplayed partner into pass. QJxQxxxKQxAx xx 3Hx making & 4S making. Not sure how you think 3H is making if partner holds that hand. Sure its possible, but its also unlikely. In the meantime, Double. Support for all other suits, and if partner has a penalty double of 3H, wonderful. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdonn Posted May 23, 2008 Report Share Posted May 23, 2008 I edited the post Justin quoted. As I went through the hands more carefully my conclusions also changed. I made some blatant mistakes the first time. For example, once west had: 10xxx A AK AKQ108x. Believe it or not, that was one of the hands where 3HX made with overtricks :). On the overtrick example in your big post we go for 500 or 800 in 3♠ anyway. I think you have clearly shown double is a winner. It actually taught me something. I didn't think it would be nearly as obvious as it turned out to be, even though I did double. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keylime Posted May 23, 2008 Report Share Posted May 23, 2008 Red card for me. Easy call, doesn't commit us to playing 3S on a 5-1 doubled. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benlessard Posted May 25, 2008 Report Share Posted May 25, 2008 What about X vs 3S ? Surely there is some time where 3H x is making or down 1 and 4S makes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CSGibson Posted May 25, 2008 Report Share Posted May 25, 2008 What about X vs 3S ? Surely there is some time where 3H x is making or down 1 and 4S makes. I'm sure there is. That doesn't mean that double isn't both the call that wins most frequently or the call that gets the greatest number of imps long term. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benlessard Posted May 26, 2008 Report Share Posted May 26, 2008 Just that if i would have done a sim on this hand it would have been between X and 3S not between X and pass. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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