Excellent slam

[awm]

A couple observations about club players (scary to think that the clubs in LA might be stronger than club play as a whole):

 

1. They do a lot better in slam bidding when the person who is "captain" of the auction has a better hand. If partner opens 1NT (15-17) and responder holds 15 points a lot of people get to slam; if partner opens 2NT (20-21) and responder holds 10 points, not nearly so many. This is because a lot of club players have trouble visualizing partner's huge hand on the latter auction, but when partner opens the bidding and responder holds a big hand they usually get there. BTW, this applies even when it's wrong; if partner opens and responder holds 17-18 hcp much of the field will be in slam even if there is no fit and slam has no particular play simply because responder's hand is so strong and "partner opened."

 

2. They do a lot better at bidding major suit slams than minor suit slams. I think this is because a lot of the bidding tools available to them emphasize majors over minors (everyone knows how to transfer to a major and look for slam over 2NT, a lot of club players don't know how to get to a minor suit slam over 2NT). So if you take the hand from this thread and swap spades with clubs in both opener and responder's hand, I would expect very few slam bidders in a typical club field (and many will play in partial on some auction like 1NT-3♣-Pass where responder thought forcing and opener thought NF), whereas on the actual hands I expect a lot of people in slam.

[kenrexford]

Just for S&G, I wonder if anyone would be sick enough to play this hand in this manner:

 

Win the diamond Ace, diamond King pitching either a heart or a club, ruff a diamond, A-K-ruff in whatever suit you ditched, back to hand in the other suit, ruff a diamond, eliminate that other suit ending in hand, finesse the spade Queen if you got that far.

 

This is an idiot line, but it allows you to brag if the KJx was behind. If RHO looked very happy, that's an option.

[han]

A10x

AQJx

A10

AQJx

 

 

KQJxx

Kxxx

xx

xx

I think that this is not an easy hand for what I believe are standard club-level English methods. If north opens 2NT showing 20-22 balanced, south bids Stayman, north bids 3H and south does not have 3S as slam try in hearts available then it isn't automatic to get to slam.

 

Of course, if north shows 22-24 balanced and south can ask for keycards in hearts it is impossible to stay out of slam. South can count 12 tricks in a heart contract and only 11 in notrump so it seems right to play in 6H. I believe that is also the best matchpoint contract.

 

Roland's hand seems easier to bid for club-level players, tough to say though. If it is a real life hand then perhaps Roland could post the results?

[Walddk]

Roland's hand seems easier to bid for club-level players, tough to say though. If it is a real life hand then perhaps Roland could post the results?

Above average club game. 8 results.

 

2 x 680

4 x 1430

1 x 2210

1 x -100

[1eyedjack]

Roland's hand seems easier to bid for club-level players, tough to say though. If it is a real life hand then perhaps Roland could post the results?

Above average club game. 8 results.

 

2 x 680

4 x 1430

1 x 2210

1 x -100

I take it that it was matchpointed, then

[Walddk]

Roland's hand seems easier to bid for club-level players, tough to say though. If it is a real life hand then perhaps Roland could post the results?

Above average club game. 8 results.

 

2 x 680

4 x 1430

1 x 2210

1 x -100

I take it that it was matchpointed, then

Sorry, yes.

[NickRW]

I think Frances's numbers are typical. Most pairs at most clubs don't bid slams other than those that go 1N-6N. Therefore, in that sort of field, the safety play seems indicated.

 

However, at a stronger club, many pairs would bid this slam. And many of those would bid 6N too. And I'd bet that quite a proportion of those don't know the safety play or will forget to think about it in the heat of the moment - so your best chance to beat both those in the game and those in 6N is still the safety play. Of course it could work out bad for you when the safety play isn't necessary and you find that everyone is actually in 6S making an over. Such is life.

 

Nick

[Finch]

I did some sums, and the 'matchpoint' line (low to the queen) gains about 3 times as often as it loses (Jx or J offside vs. singleton K offisde).

 

So a quick maths test: given that, how much of the field needs to be missing the slam for the safety play to be right?

[georgeac]

Roland's hand seems easier to bid for club-level players, tough to say though. If it is a real life hand then perhaps Roland could post the results?

Above average club game. 8 results.

 

2 x 680

4 x 1430

1 x 2210

1 x -100

Which one was your score Roland?

[han]

I did some sums, and the 'matchpoint' line (low to the queen) gains about 3 times as often as it loses (Jx or J offside vs. singleton K offisde).

 

So a quick maths test: given that, how much of the field needs to be missing the slam for the safety play to be right?

60%, ignoring 6NT for a second.

 

It's a small sample but Roland's club is good enough to finesse.

[Guest Jlall]

I did some sums, and the 'matchpoint' line (low to the queen) gains about 3 times as often as it loses (Jx or J offside vs. singleton K offisde). 

 

So a quick maths test:  given that, how much of the field needs to be missing the slam for the safety play to be right?

60%, ignoring 6NT for a second.

 

It's a small sample but Roland's club is good enough to finesse.

It's not that clear though since you don't know how the declarers in 6S will play the suit (ie, if any will take ken's line).

[Finch]

I had a quick think about it and decided it wasn't a 'quick' question.

[han]

I did some sums, and the 'matchpoint' line (low to the queen) gains about 3 times as often as it loses (Jx or J offside vs. singleton K offisde). 

 

So a quick maths test:  given that, how much of the field needs to be missing the slam for the safety play to be right?

60%, ignoring 6NT for a second.

 

It's a small sample but Roland's club is good enough to finesse.

It's not that clear though since you don't know how the declarers in 6S will play the suit (ie, if any will take ken's line).

I know. The 60% is assuming that pairs in 6S use either the safety play or the finesse-drop line, and that the other pairs are in game.

[kenrexford]

I did some sums, and the 'matchpoint' line (low to the queen) gains about 3 times as often as it loses (Jx or J offside vs. singleton K offisde). 

 

So a quick maths test:  given that, how much of the field needs to be missing the slam for the safety play to be right?

60%, ignoring 6NT for a second.

 

It's a small sample but Roland's club is good enough to finesse.

It's not that clear though since you don't know how the declarers in 6S will play the suit (ie, if any will take ken's line).

Actually, the odds that anyone takes a line I take are usually rather small and hence negligible. LOL

[benlessard]

The first and formemost is to make an assement of the "field". In the club where im director. 90+% are going to be in slam. Nobody will be in 7. at least 30% will be in 6Nt.

 

so a in reasonnable field.

 

1 in game.

3 in 6Nt.

6 in 6S.

 

We play low S and see a x.

 

So the possible lines are

1- A & low to the Q

2 -low to Q then A

3 -low to T and finesse the Q

4 - low to Q the low to T

5 - Low to T then A

 

KJxb---- void = 6,6,7,6,7

KJx------b= 6,6,7,6,7

Kxb-----J= 6,7,6,7,5

Kx------Jb= 6,7,6,7,6

Jbx-----K= 7,5,6,6,6

Jx-----Kb =6,6,6,6,6

xb-----KJ =6,6,5,5,6

 

After that its easy to see what is better according to field and to possible contract at the other tables.

[kenrexford]

Reformulating:

 

1- A & low to the Q

2 -low to Q then A

3 -low to T and finesse the Q

4 - low to Q the low to T

5 - Low to T then A

 

1: 6666766 (43)

2: 6677566 (43)

3: 7766665 (43)

4: 6677665 (43)

5: 7756666 (43)

 

2/4 compared. Same on 5. Two differences (5/7). Expected.

 

1/2/4 compared:

 

1: 6666766 (43)

2: 6677566 (43)

4: 6677665 (43)

 

2/4 beat 1 5X. Two swings (12 top):

 

A. 4 hits the middle once (1), loses to both once (0).

B. 2 loses to both once (0), but ties 1 for the win once (1.5).

 

So, if all 6♥, 2 wins.

 

What if 6NT?

 

A. 4 hits middle once (1), loses to both once (0)

B. 2 loses to both once (0), middle once (1).

 

What if no slam?

 

A. 4 gets 0 when 4 was tied

B. 2 gets 0 when 2 was second.

[benlessard]

PS just for those who dont know They dont have the same frequency Kx ---Jx is twice as likely then KJ ---xb this is because there is Kx ----Jb and Kb----Jx

[y66]

Really like this problem and the discussion. Some points are lost on me but I get the gist. Will save this one.