Excellent slam

[Walddk]

[hv=d=s&v=b&n=saq10764hk92d8caq4&s=s532haq5dak65ck103]133|200|S: 6S

Lead: DQ[/hv]

First, please note that this is a topic in the B/I forum, so if you are advanced or better, either refrain from replying or do it with hidden text.

 

South opens 1NT and through a transfer sequence he arrives in the excellent 6♠. West leads ♦Q.

 

Plan the play ...

 

1. In a team match.

2. At matchpoints.

 

Roland

[kenrexford]

 

Team: 2A, then up.

 

MP: hook/hook

 

[Finch]

I'm not convinced that this is the answer you are looking for, but in the vast majority of matchpointed games I would take the same line at both mps and teams.

[Guest Jlall]

I don't agree with either ken or frances's lines in MP lol

[ArcLight]

 

 

In MP if you reject the safetly play of leading to the Ace on the first round, you will come out ahead in that the number of chances to make over tricks is larger than the number of chances to go down in 6 spades.

However, not everyone will be in 6 spades. If you make your slam (without over tricks) you will beat all those who are not in slam. Thos ein 7S will beat you if over tricks are to be had. Few if any will be in a NT contract.

I think this outweighs the hunt for over tricks.

I would play the same way in both MP and IMPS.

 

Lead to the Ace, then lead up to dummy for repeated finesses.

 

 

 

 

 

[georgeac]

For Teams:

I take the Q♦ and play low ♠ putting in the 10♠. If East wins either the K♠ or J♠ I win lead and play a low spade again from my hand to dummy.. If W shows out on the second round and spades are 3-1. I believe this is down on any line. If W produces a spade then I play the A♠ as they are breaking 2-2.

 

For MP:

I would take the same line as I don't see a better one.

[the hog]

I don't understand ken's comment, but surely the best line is to lay down the SA first and then lead towards QT at euther form of the game. 6S making should be a pretty fair result at MPs as well, even with the safety play.

[655321]

Team: 2A, then up.

 

MP: hook/hook

Ken, Sabine Auken's book has a similar, but slightly different suit:

 

AQTxxxx opposite xx, at matchpoints.

[Free]

For Teams:

I take the Q♦ and play low ♠ putting in the 10♠. If East wins either the K♠ or J♠ I win lead and play a low spade again from my hand to dummy.. If W shows out on the second round and spades are 3-1. I believe this is down on any line. If W produces a spade then I play the A♠ as they are breaking 2-2.

 

For MP:

I would take the same line as I don't see a better one.

Teams: your line loses when RHO has ♠J stiff, while there is a line that wouldn't go down on this layout (plus every other layout your line of play can handle).

 

MP: why lose a trick against Kx - Jx?

[hotShot]

If W produces a spade then I play the A♠ as they are breaking 2-2.

If West produces a ♠, he could have 3, so your line loses against:

West Kxx - East J

[Walddk]

MP: why lose a trick against Kx - Jx?

I think you forgot

 

Kxx - J

KJ - xx

 

I know I agree with Justin's lines although he didn't state any .... well, he did between the lines (pun intended).

 

Roland

[Guest Jlall]

Interesting I have been thinking about this a lot and after low to the queen losing to the king there is another, way more compelling reason to play the ace next (despite being the right percentage play by a small amount).

 

Suppose Frances and her groupies are in your field, taking safety plays left and right. If RHO had stiff king they have ALREADY beat you even if you hook the next round, because they are losing NO tricks to that holding. Thus if you hook next you are letting them beat you on KJ tight on right AND stiff K on right, both times by one trick. If you play the ace next you're tying them on KJ tight and just letting them beat you on stiff K on right, just this time by TWO tricks. Sorry if this was obvious but I had never thought about it, cool.

[paulg]

If there is disagreement between Ken, Frances and Justin then perhaps this problem should not be in the B/I forum!

 

p

[Walddk]

If there is disagreement between Ken, Frances and Justin then perhaps this problem should not be in the B/I forum!

 

p

Part one is indeed relevant to B/I'ers. Perhaps the matchpoint aspect should have been somewhere else.

 

Roland

[brianshark]

 

The absolute best "in isolation" safety line for 5 tricks is cash Ace and then small to the Q. Though there is a certain justification in maximising in case there is another unexpected trick to be lost somewhere else like a ruff or smth) though not on this hand. On this hand the safety play for 5 tricks also happens to minimise the chance of a ruff. So there is no question that at imps, that is the correct line to take.

 

The play which maximises the number of tricks in the suit is hook the Q and if it loses, cash the ace.

 

In MP you may lean towards a safer line because slam making is decent, but to be honest, this is a good slam and it should be bid. I'd say, depending on the field strength, that there will be maybe 25% of the field only in game. But the overtrick is quite important against those in 6spades or 6NT.

 

Therefore in MP I will hook the Q and cash the A if it loses.

 

 

Edited after Justin's quote for clarity.

[Guest Jlall]

If there is disagreement between Ken, Frances and Justin then perhaps this problem should not be in the B/I forum!

 

p

I can demonstrate for sure that ken's line is wrong, but trying to demonstrate that Frances is wrong (or right) is just way too complicated. There are too many variables including:

 

How many people are in game?

How many people are in GRAND?

How many people are in 6N?

How are the people in 6S playing the hand (of the 3 possible lines)? What percentage is taking each line?

How are the people in 6N playing the hand?

 

Another interesting excersize is if you are in 6N, how should you be playing it? In an ideal world you will play it exactly like the declarers in 6S unless such a substantial amount of people are in game that you should always safety play.

 

But tbh I really just think almost everyone will find 6S on this hand. I get Frances's initial point (that so many people will be in game in a lot of fields that you should maximize your chance of making 6S), but I just cant see this hand as being that difficult. Even in a club game south will open 1N and north will probably transfer and bid blackwood. Or in a wk NT country south will rebid 1N and north will bid gerber or something lol.

[Guest Jlall]

The absolute best "in isolation" safety line for 5 tricks is cash Ace and then small to the Q. Though there is a certain justification in maximising in case there is another unexpected trick to be lost somewhere else like a ruff or smth) though not on this hand. On this hand the safety play for 5 tricks also happens to minimise the chance of a ruff. So there is no question that at imps, that is the correct line to take.

 

The play which maximises the number of tricks in the suit is hook the Q and if it loses, cash the ace.

 

In MP you may lean towards a safer line because slam making is decent, but to be honest, this is a good slam and it should be bid. I'd say, depending on the field strength, that there will be maybe 25% of the field. But the overtrick is quite important against those in 6spades or 6NT.

 

Therefore in MP I will hook the Q and cash the A if it loses.

If only 25 % of the field is in slam then you have clearly taken the wrong line to go for the overtrick in all scenarios.

 

I have to play a tournament today but later I will try to post some cutoff numbers for what %age of declarers need to be in 6S before it's right to go for the overtrick, simplifying it by assuming no one is in 7S and no one is in 6N (only 6S or 4S), and making some assumptions on how declarer will play in 6S.

[brianshark]

Sorry, I meant to say that only 25% of the field are only in game! ;)

[georgeac]

I think I understand now.

In teams it is best to play A first and then 10 back for the safety play.

If they are 2-2 this line will always only produce one losing trick.

If it is Kxx - J this line will also work.

If it is J - Kxx this line still works.

I think that if it is x - KJx you are always down on any line still.

 

In MP to play for the over trick is best, by winning Q♦ and playing low to the Q♠. If it wins and E shows the J♠, you play back to hand and play another low spade and finesse W again. If E does not show the J♠, you play the A second time around. If it is Kx - Jx it will produce an over trick. If it is Kxx - J you will win an over trick. You will still make 6 on the other layouts except x - KJx.

[Finch]

Interesting I have been thinking about this a lot and after low to the queen losing to the king there is another, way more compelling reason to play the ace next (despite being the right percentage play by a small amount).

 

Suppose Frances and her groupies are in your field, taking safety plays left and right. If RHO had stiff king they have ALREADY beat you even if you hook the next round, because they are losing NO tricks to that holding. Thus if you hook next you are letting them beat you on KJ tight on right AND stiff K on right, both times by one trick. If you play the ace next you're tying them on KJ tight and just letting them beat you on stiff K on right, just this time by TWO tricks. Sorry if this was obvious but I had never thought about it, cool.

I like this analysis.

(I'm not sure if I like the idea of groupies or not)

[skjaeran]

I don't agree with either ken or frances's lines in MP lol

Me neither.

[1eyedjack]

Regarding the MP line:

 

RHO is just as likely to hold singleton J as singleton K, and singleton J will also produce an overtrick where the safety play limits you to tick.

 

I think that the combined possibility of J stiff and Jx doubleton offside would likely counter the benefits of making against those in game, so I start with small to the Q, and cross back to repeat the finesse if RHO plays the J under it (or shows out).

[han]

Didn't read the thread but I always agree with Frances.

[kenrexford]

It seems we are now moving away from hidden text, so I'll jump in all out in the open and all. Stop reading if this is inaccurate for you.

 

We all agree on the line at IMPs.

 

The question is at MP, then. It also seems that most people finesse the Queen first unless they want to protect the contract (go IMP style), which seems weird to me in a decent field; in a poor field, perhaps that is right. The case of the Queen finesse working and dropping nothing obviously calls for the play of the Ace next. The case of the Queen dropping the Jack also obviously calls for the repeat of the finesse next. So, the question seems to be solely whether to finesse next after the Queen hook fails.

 

That decision will be 100% unless LHO plays a second pip on the second trump lead. Thus, there are only two possible holding to worry about:

 

xx-KJ or

Jxx-K.

 

Justin makes a good observation that some people will plunk down Ace at MP. That will mean that these people beat you with the latter no matter what you do. On the former, they beat you only if you hook twice. This problem tends to lead you toward catering to xx-KJ.

 

That said, there also seems to be a counter-intuitive argument here. If the layout is, in fact, Jxx-K, you will beat all of the people in 6♠ who started with a finesse of the Queen but opt now to cater to percentages and to those who played Ace first. That includes the 6NT people who hooked and then tried to drop, going down a trick.

 

If 6NT is a contract that will repeat, you are already in the hole unless 6NT fails. If LHO has two pips, 6NT does not fail when KJ is behind unless Declarer hooks-then-hooks. But, folks seem to hook-then-drop, probably at 6NT as well. So, to beat the 6NT folks who hook first, you must zag.

 

I'm not sure what I believe on this, but my gut still wants to hook and then hook again in 6♠ because of the 6NT threat. Very shaky in my confidence...

[Finch]

A 'simultaneous pairs' in England is (I think) similar to a STAC - you get people playing on their normal club night, but everyone round the country plays the same hands and it is scored across the country.

 

Looking at the results of that is always a great way to find out what the standard of club bridge really is. And I doubt random English club players are worse than random club players anywhere else.

 

Here's hand 1 from last week's event:

 

A10x

AQJx

A10

AQJx

 

 

KQJxx

Kxxx

xx

xx

 

The strong hand is dealer and they will (probably!) get an uncontested auction.

Spades are 5-0 and the club finesse is right, so 7NT makes as does 7H by North but 7H by South is down.

 

The frequencies show:

 

10 people bid and made grand

178 bid and made a small slam (some doubled, some with an overtrick)

31 went off in something (most likely a grand slam)

521 played in game

 

A few people had bizarre results (one +260, one passed out, one 1100, one 800)

 

Only about 20% of the field are capable of getting to slam one a combined 31-count with two 8-card major suit fits.

 

That's what club bridge is.

 

Now, put me in the final of the world open pairs (or the European open pairs, which I have played in) and I would take Justin's matchpoint line. In the top section or a final of a national event as well. But not at my club.