My hand of the year, if I had made it...

[Gerben42]

[hv=d=s&v=n&n=s985hk8643dk72ca7&s=sq43hajda65ckq862]133|200|Scoring: IMP[/hv]

 

You open 1♣ (could be short), and get overcalled some crazy conv: 1♥ = ♠ or minors. Partner doubles and RHO bids 1♠ pass or correct.

 

Anyway, you bid 1NT now to show your strong NT, raised to 3NT.

 

You get a 4th best ♠7 lead, 8, 10, Q and decide to put on some pressure on RHO by continuing ♠. He follows your tack and continues ♠, RHO discards a small ♦.

 

Another ♠ and you discard a ♥ from dummy, ♣ from RHO and you also discard a ♣.

 

On the last ♠, you... (RHO discards another ♣).

[karlson]

I don't really get it -- did I just risk going down if spades are 6-1 when I had 9 tricks if clubs were 3-3?

 

Anyway, I don't really like my squeeze chances, since presumably lefty had the option to show some other 2-suiter. I don't really see any option other than to discard a diamond from my hand and a heart from the board. Aside from the heart hook, I think the best chance is that lefty has the club guard (righty is pitching from xx) and I can get righty in the reds. Presumably I'll find this out when I cash the ♣A.

[Echognome]

I don't really get it -- did I just risk going down if spades are 6-1 when I had 9 tricks if clubs were 3-3?

 

Anyway, I don't really like my squeeze chances, since presumably lefty had the option to show some other 2-suiter. I don't really see any option other than to discard a diamond from my hand and a heart from the board. Aside from the heart hook, I think the best chance is that lefty has the club guard (righty is pitching from xx) and I can get righty in the reds. Presumably I'll find this out when I cash the ♣A.

If you are going to squeeze righty in the reds, don't you want to pitch a diamond from dummy and a heart from hand?

[DrTodd13]

♥ or ♦ from dummy and ♣ from your hand. You have a decision to make, either play for 3-3♣ or a ♥♦ squeeze against east. From what I can tell, you can't combine your chances since you need ♥J for transportation and third♦ in hand as a threat. With the club pitches and the fact that you're posting this as a problem, I'll assume the ♣ aren't splitting.

[655321]

Tough hand.

 

I am pretty sure you need to pitch the ♥J, because red suit squeezes on RHO don't work when both of the threats are in dummy.

 

If LHO exits with a heart (a diamond looks even worse, I have not looked at that B) ) we can play a club to the Ace, and see who shows out. If RHO still has the clubs held, and we pick the position (does RHO have 3 hearts and no diamonds, or 1 heart and 2 diamonds) we can make on a squeeze.

 

Some of these holdings are almost certainly ruled out on the bidding, but it would be nice if there was a sure trick solution. B)

 

If LHO holds the clubs (5224 or similar), again we can squeeze RHO if we pick the position.

[mikeh]

I don't like the hand. We could easily have gone down in a cold contract... we had a 50% line in the heart hook, when spades might have been 6-1 on the lead. I suppose we could perhaps infer that LHO would have bid 2♠ (or 2♥ if playing suction as the 1♥ call and explanation suggests) if he held 6.

 

But where are we going on the actual line? We should and presumably did consider our situation as he ran his winners.

 

As has already been pointed out, we cannot combine our chances in clubs with a red suit squeeze on east... we need to keep the heart J in order to have an entry to the heart suit after the squeeze operates, and we need to keep the 3rd diamond in hand, else rho is pitching behind dummy, and both threats are in dummy.

 

We can only keep 5 red cards by pitching 2 clubs, and now we look silly when clubs were 3-3 or even sillier if rho screwed up (or out-thought us) by pitching from length.

 

The only layout where I see the line actually working where other lines fail is when LHO is 5=4=4=0... choosing to treat this as a 1-suiter due to the relative suit strengths. This seems odd, but it is plausible.. rho is pitching 2 clubs not because he has xx but because he has 6 of them!

 

Now, we can pitch a diamond from hand, because it is LHO who guards diamonds. Note that this is because rho has already pitched one from his hypothetical 2=2=3=6, but he was going to be squeezed in any event... you'd win the red suit shift in hand, cash the top 2 hearts, squeezing east in the minors... as it is, you now have an easy red suit squeeze on LHO! Win his shift in hand, and cash the top clubs.

 

I admit that I would never have started this way, but I might have stumbled into this line: win the spade Q, lead a club to dummy, intending to hook the heart, and then, when LHO shows out, rethink. Given that he showed a one suiter, it is then fairly easy to picture 5=4=4=0 with weak reds... maybe AKJ9x Qxxx Jxxx void. OTOH, I might be even more worried that he has 6 spades!

[DrTodd13]

Tough hand.

 

I am pretty sure you need to pitch the ♥J, because red suit squeezes on RHO don't work when both of the threats are in dummy.

 

If LHO exits with a heart (a diamond looks even worse, I have not looked at that B) ) we can play a club to the Ace, and see who shows out. If RHO still has the clubs held, and we pick the position (does RHO have 3 hearts and no diamonds, or 1 heart and 2 diamonds) we can make on a squeeze.

 

Some of these holdings are almost certainly ruled out on the bidding, but it would be nice if there was a sure trick solution. B)

 

If LHO holds the clubs (5224 or similar), again we can squeeze RHO if we pick the position.

You need to look at the ♦ return because that is the problematic one.

[DrTodd13]

The only layout where I see the line actually working where other lines fail is when LHO is 5=4=4=0... choosing to treat this as a 1-suiter due to the relative suit strengths. This seems odd, but it is plausible.. rho is pitching 2 clubs not because he has xx but because he has 6 of them!

I would tend to not believe RHO is 2236 if he chose as his first discard a ♦ instead of a ♣.

[655321]

Tough hand.

 

I am pretty sure you need to pitch the ♥J, because red suit squeezes on RHO don't work when both of the threats are in dummy.

 

If LHO exits with a heart (a diamond looks even worse, I have not looked at that  B) ) we can play a club to the Ace, and see who shows out.  If RHO still has the clubs held, and we pick the position (does RHO have 3 hearts and no diamonds, or 1 heart and 2 diamonds) we can make on a squeeze.

 

Some of these holdings are almost certainly ruled out on the bidding, but it would be nice if there was a sure trick solution.  B)

 

If LHO holds the clubs (5224 or similar), again we can squeeze RHO if we pick the position.

You need to look at the ♦ return because that is the problematic one.

Well, yes... isn't that what I said?

 

I don't claim to have a solution yet. But given that, in the line I tried, a heart return is simplest, it makes sense to me to try to make the contract after the simplest return. If the simple line is unsuccessful, it is not necessary to look at the much more complex lines on the diamond return, instead I can backtrack and look for a better play than the ♥ pitch.

 

It is an interesting hand, when I have time I hope to look at it some more. :)

[CSGibson]

... some crazy conv: 1♥ = ♠ or minors. ...

Suction! I used to play that over a short club, great tool in a partnership with a good understanding of the convention.

 

Nothing to add to the analysis of the play, it's already been said.

[pclayton]

Tough hand.

 

I am pretty sure you need to pitch the ♥J, because red suit squeezes on RHO don't work when both of the threats are in dummy.

 

If LHO exits with a heart (a diamond looks even worse, I have not looked at that B) ) we can play a club to the Ace, and see who shows out. If RHO still has the clubs held, and we pick the position (does RHO have 3 hearts and no diamonds, or 1 heart and 2 diamonds) we can make on a squeeze.

 

Some of these holdings are almost certainly ruled out on the bidding, but it would be nice if there was a sure trick solution. B)

 

If LHO holds the clubs (5224 or similar), again we can squeeze RHO if we pick the position.

Agree with this.

 

The diamond shift we win in hand and test clubs. Assuming they are 4-2 (otherwise np) we pitch a diamond from dummy and have a criss-cross position against East. I really need East to be 2452 for this work. I don't think East is 2362, since I probably would have seen a 2nd diamond pitch, and besides I can't see retaining chances for a red sqz against E AND a double with hearts as the common suit.

 

Pitching a club on the last spade will give us more flexibility in the ending but looks silly when RHO is 2-3 in the blacks.

 

I don't think I like the spade right away. I would have tried 2 clubs to see if they are 5-1 or 6-0 which would added some clarity to the endgame. Furthermore I might get true count from both opponents and determine right away if clubs are 3-3 which avoids going down right away when spades are 6-1, although I should a good idea at T1 the spade distribution because of the spots.

 

If clubs would have been 5-1 / 6-0 I would have a near claim.

[mikeh]

The diamond shift we win in hand and test clubs. Assuming they are 4-2 (otherwise np) we pitch a diamond from dummy and have a criss-cross position against East.If clubs would have been 5-1 / 6-0 I would have a near claim.

[hv=n=shkxxdkc&s=shadxxcx]133|200|What is your crisscross position in the 4 card endgame? This is what I come up with, and rho abandons diamonds.. you can't untangle your red winners[/hv]

[Gerben42]

I don't like the hand. We could easily have gone down in a cold contract... we had a 50% line in the heart hook, when spades might have been 6-1 on the lead. I suppose we could perhaps infer that LHO would have bid 2♠ (or 2♥ if playing suction as the 1♥ call and explanation suggests) if he held 6.

 

Thanks to "suction" or Timbuktu, you know that they would have bid TWO something with ♠AKJxxx. The upside of this convention vs a "could be short" is just not enough to counter the big downside, which is that opps usually know how to play the hand. Except that now I still didn't know :)

[pclayton]

The diamond shift we win in hand and test clubs. Assuming they are 4-2 (otherwise np) we pitch a diamond from dummy and have a criss-cross position against East.If clubs would have been 5-1 / 6-0 I would have a near claim.

[hv=n=shkxxdkc&s=shadxxcx]133|200|What is your crisscross position in the 4 card endgame? This is what I come up with, and rho abandons diamonds.. you can't untangle your red winners[/hv]

True, I hadnt considered the KH being stranded.

 

I'll go for the club pitch then. I'm sure Gerben wouldnt post this if clubs were 3-3 :)

[gnasher]

I'd have cashed three clubs before exiting with a spade. That would make guessing this ending a lot easier, and wouldn't really cost anything - I was never going to finesse in hearts anyway.

[CSGibson]

I don't like the hand. We could easily have gone down in a cold contract... we had a 50% line in the heart hook, when spades might have been 6-1 on the lead. I suppose we could perhaps infer that LHO would have bid 2♠ (or 2♥ if playing suction as the 1♥ call and explanation suggests) if he held 6.

Presumably they had an agreement over double about whether bidding 1 spade showed tolerance or not as well, giving distributional information.

[DrTodd13]

I'd have cashed three clubs before exiting with a spade. That would make guessing this ending a lot easier, and wouldn't really cost anything - I was never going to finesse in hearts anyway.

On the layout we are concerned with, playing 3 rounds of ♣ and then a ♠ establishes a ♣ for the guy who has ♠s. It sure does take the guess away because the next time you're in you have the 5 last top tricks down 1.

[gnasher]

On the layout we are concerned with, playing 3 rounds of ♣ and then a ♠ establishes a ♣ for the guy who has ♠s. It sure does take the guess away because the next time you're in you have the 5 last top tricks down 1.

That may well be true of the layout that concerns you. The layouts that concern me, however, are the more likely ones where RHO started with three, four or five clubs.

 

If he has three clubs, cashing the top clubs first ensures that I don't end up throwing away two of my original ten winners.

 

If he has four clubs, I have a squeeze against RHO provided that I can read the position - LHO had to unguard a red suit on the third round of clubs. Cashing the top clubs not only ensures that this squeeze position exists, but also greatly increases my chances of reading it.

 

When he has five clubs, there is almost always a way to make the contract, as long I work out their shapes. Again, doing this will be facilitated by knowing the club layout in good time. (In this case the right line doesn't always involve cashing the clubs and exiting.)

[Gerben42]

I'll go for the club pitch then. I'm sure Gerben wouldnt post this if clubs were 3-3

 

Right.

 

I'd have cashed three clubs before exiting with a spade. That would make guessing this ending a lot easier, and wouldn't really cost anything - I was never going to finesse in hearts anyway.

 

Okay except that if LHO has 4♣, you won't get to exit the ♠ anymore. In that case you can still try the ♥ finesse, of course.

 

As it was, LHO had:

 

♠AKTxx

♥Qx (that's unlucky for Gnasher's line)

♦Qx

♣JT9x

 

I guess discarding ♥J is best and expect LHO not to find the winning line. After all, returning a ♦ from Qx may turn out very badly...

[mikeh]

I really don't understand the ultimate point of the post. It started off as a very interesting play problem, but it seems that the 'hand of the year' requires playing for a specific, unlikely layout combined with misdefence, rather than adopting a technically superior line of play.

 

We always had a slightly better than 50% line by taking the heart finesse into the hand with long spades, thus, a priori, short(ish) hearts. Instead, we are to assume that LHO has Qx of hearts and a diamond holding that won't let him make the killing shift... a shift that many expert defenders would be able to work out because, if they really have all of the diamond spots, rho would at sometime maybe pitched the diamond J from J109xx. And, of course, LHO may have a non-dangerous diamond holding: 10x or worse never costs.

 

I admit that the pitch of the heart J will often get an unthinking (and sometimes a thinking) LHO to play a heart to your now-assumed to be stiff Ace, but a thinking LHO will see the squeeze developing and will make the dangerous diamond shift on the basis that it can never cost a contract that would otherwise be set.

 

Sorry to carp :) The hand of the year should not require insulting the opponents rather than working out the right play.

[DrTodd13]

We have two conflicting pieces of information. Our opponent with long spades is likely short in ♥ but he is also more likely to hold the queen due to having taken a bid.

 

I agree with Mike though. I thought you were asking for the correct line of play, not the psychological line of play. I thought we all agreed in the end that ♣ pitch was correct.

[kfay]

Personally I think it's impossible that spades are 6-1. Who is ducking AK when this is the case? Couldn't we have Qx?

[mikeh]

Personally I think it's impossible that spades are 6-1.  Who is ducking AK when this is the case?  Couldn't we have Qx?

I think you misread the problem: LHO showed spades, we showed a stopper (so likely don't hold Qx) and LHO made a perfectly normal small spade lead, catering to his partner holding xx and an early entry.

 

While I do think that the chance of 6-1 spades is non-trivial, and thus another strike against what I see as the percentage line (cross to the club Ace and hook the heart), I do think that the odds are that spades are 5=2, because many opps with AKJxxx would either have bid at the 2-level immediately or, less commonly, bid 2♠ over 1N, given the vulnerability.

[Guest Jlall]

Wow, great spot gnasher (cashing 3 clubs first then playing a spade). I think that line is far and away the best, but I don't think I would have found it.

 

I really think some posters are overestimating the chances that spades are 6-1. I don't even think the bidding is the biggest clue. Imagine you are LHO with AKJ7xx + some other stuff of spades(no 2S overcall), are you really firing out the S7? It caters to...well...nothing really. I guess if partner has a doubleton spade, RHO has 4 spades, and partner has an entry it could gain. That gives LHO a stiff spade for this bidding (3N?), and gives partner an entry when he has few HCP, and then gives the perfect split in spades for the lead. I think it's just way more likely that you'd lead a high spade in case of Qx/in case you can shift and not give up trick 9/in case you need to bang out 3 rounds of spades so that you don't end up getting thrown in with a spade later.

 

I would have bet a lot on 5-2 spades, and then you are in GREAT shape if RHO has 3+ clubs which is very likely. By cashing the top clubs first you eliminate the endgame guesses you will face because you know the club situation immediately. Great line imo.