play 3N

[mikeh]

[hv=d=s&v=b&n=sq2haj6daq10962ck6&s=sk10h952dj73caq872]133|200|Scoring: IMP

Playing a handicap imp event against weakish opps, with RHO the stronger of the two, partner opens 1♦ in 3rd, rho bids 1♠ and LHO raises to 2♠ over your conservative 1N. Partner bids 3N and the lead is the spade 8. RHO plays the Jack and you win in your hand. Plan the play. [/hv]

[jtfanclub]

Well, let's suppose the clubs split 3-3, and I run them.

 

If RHO has everything, he would need to keep the Kx of diamonds, the KQ of hearts, and that leaves room for only 3 spades. In theory, I could then throw him in with ace and another heart, watch him run three spades, then give up a diamond.

 

Seems like you're asking for a lot, though. If instead the heart Q is with LHO, RHO can bare down to the stiff K of hearts, Kx of diamonds, and 4 spades. Now you're down no matter what. Even if he goes down to 3 spades, Kx of hearts, Kx of diamonds, it seems likely he can get to his partner's hand to get the diamond lead through.

 

In reality I'd just take the diamond finesse before running clubs.. LHO has 5+ hcp, why can't 3 of them be in the form of the diamond king?

[vuroth]

LHO has 5+ hcp, why can't 3 of them be in the form of the diamond king?

So we're trusting the more solid player to overcall vulnerable with 9- HCP?

 

I don't think so.

 

Trying clubs first means I can't handle a 4-0 diamond split (I'm ok with RHO overcalling vunerable with 11 HCP and a diamond void), but I can still handle 3-1 with the king on my left.

 

Frankly, I don't expect either to work, but I don't see harm in combining my chances.

 

...

 

That said, I have a real problem with the bidding. I realize the field is weakish, but it's hard to fathom the 2♠ bid. Are spades 6-3? 5-4? If clubs go 3-3 and RHO drops a spade and a heart, do I REALLY know that my best line is to throw him in?

 

The closest to a sensible E/W holding I can come up with after WAY too much thought is:

 

[hv=w=s8xxxhxxxxdkxxxcx&e=saj9xxhkqxdcjxxxx]266|100|[/hv]

 

...and I'm still not sure why West isnt' bidding 3♠....

 

It's been an instructive hand, and I can certainly see where a squeeze might work. But for me, I really don't think I'd know what to do with RHO's discards, so I'm going to immediately finesse diamonds, and leave clubs untouched in case I need them to return to hand to run a third round through west.

 

V

[ArtK78]

I am very tempted to exit a spade at trick 2 and let them run the spades. As long as spades are not 6-3, I am no worse off, and I may gain some useful information or correct the count for a squeeze.

 

The obvious other line is to finesse diamonds at once. Even if clubs are 3-3, you only have 8 tricks, so the diamond finesse will have to be taken eventually.

 

There is also a chance that if the diamond finesse loses, the spade suit is blocked (or your opponents will block them). So you are not guaranteed to go down just because the diamond finesse fails.

[mikeh]

 

There is also a chance that if the diamond finesse loses, the spade suit is blocked (or your opponents will block them).  So you are not guaranteed to go down just because the diamond finesse fails.

The spade suit almost certainly cannot block... LHO led the 8... which has to be top of nothing.. the opps are weak but not so weak that they'd lead the 8 from the 9.... I suppose if he holds 8765... but rho is good enough to note that we have played the 10 on the second round, while he is looking at the 9, so he will know that his partner has 4 cards, if the suit is 5=4 and, if it is 6=3, it cannot block.

 

BTW, I posted this in the B/I hoping that some B/I readers would take a crack at it: I should have asked expert/advanced to post hidden... me bad :blink:

[pclayton]

Even if clubs are 3-3, you only have 8 tricks, so the diamond finesse will have to be taken eventually.

Nope.

[jtfanclub]

BTW, I posted this in the B/I hoping that some B/I readers would take a crack at it: I should have asked expert/advanced to post hidden... me bad B)

I'm pretty sure that both Vuroth and I still have "Intermediate" on our profiles...still waiting to win something worth bragging about before I go "Advanced".

 

I was very impressed by Vuroth's analysis, so I hope that nobody thinks I am insulting him.

[vuroth]

No insult taken here. I'm still flattered when people classify me as intermediate.

[the hog]

LHO has 5+ hcp, why can't 3 of them be in the form of the diamond king?

So we're trusting the more solid player to overcall vulnerable with 9- HCP?

 

I don't think so.

 

Trying clubs first means I can't handle a 4-0 diamond split (I'm ok with RHO overcalling vunerable with 11 HCP and a diamond void), but I can still handle 3-1 with the king on my left.

 

Frankly, I don't expect either to work, but I don't see harm in combining my chances.

 

...

 

That said, I have a real problem with the bidding. I realize the field is weakish, but it's hard to fathom the 2♠ bid. Are spades 6-3? 5-4? If clubs go 3-3 and RHO drops a spade and a heart, do I REALLY know that my best line is to throw him in?

 

The closest to a sensible E/W holding I can come up with after WAY too much thought is:

 

[hv=w=s8xxxhxxxxdkxxxcx&e=saj9xxhkqxdcjxxxx]266|100|[/hv]

 

...and I'm still not sure why West isnt' bidding 3♠....

 

It's been an instructive hand, and I can certainly see where a squeeze might work. But for me, I really don't think I'd know what to do with RHO's discards, so I'm going to immediately finesse diamonds, and leave clubs untouched in case I need them to return to hand to run a third round through west.

 

V

So you wouldn't overcall with AJxxx Kx and other assorted cards, vul or not?

I certainly would.

[y66]

DJ now saving club entry.

[vuroth]

So you wouldn't overcall with AJxxx Kx and other assorted cards, vul or not?

I certainly would.

While I probably wouldn't, and criticism of my overcall style IS fair game, my point was more that:

 

if I WOULD overcall with:

AJxxx

Kx

xxx

xxx

 

I certainly would not want partner raising to 2 with:

xxxx

Qxxxx

K

Jxx

 

(I'd much prefer partner bid 3S...)

 

...

 

IF you're comfortable with LHO having overcalled as light as 8 points vulnerable, then definitely play the diamond finesse.

[Vilgan]

So you wouldn't overcall with AJxxx Kx and other assorted cards, vul or not?

I certainly would.

While I probably wouldn't, and criticism of my overcall style IS fair game, my point was more that:

 

if I WOULD overcall with:

AJxxx

Kx

xxx

xxx

 

I certainly would not want partner raising to 2 with:

xxxx

Qxxxx

K

Jxx

 

(I'd much prefer partner bid 3S...)

 

...

 

IF you're comfortable with LHO having overcalled as light as 8 points vulnerable, then definitely play the diamond finesse.

Overcalling on 8 hcp vulnerable is fairly standard I think. I'll do it with less, but need a better suit for that. If you do not overcall 8 hcp hands vulnerable with some sort of suit you will lose lots of imps/matchpoints on partscore battles. Or if they win the contract, partner will not get off to the best lead.

 

As for 3♠, if one has 4 spades but not tons of shape.. there is no need to jump to 3 right away. Now it can go p p p down 2 for lose 3 really easy. Or maybe the opps will X it. At imps the pain of bringing back -500 against air is a lot higher than the pain at matchpoints.

 

For example, a hand such as

 

xxxx

Qxxx

Kx

xxx

 

is a pretty easy 2 spades bid, but I might think twice about it before bidding 3.

 

Lots of other hands

For example

xxxx

Qxx

Kxx

xxx

 

xxxx

Qxxx

Kxx

Jx

 

etc.

[mikeh]

While I am prepared to learn why the approach I took was inferior to the immediate diamond finesse, here is the reasoning that I took:

 

If clubs behave, then I have 8 top tricks... 5 clubs, and a trick in each side suit. Anytime you can get to within one trick of your contract, there is going to be a chance that the opps will feel some pressure. You can always take the diamond finesse later. Admittedly, yoiu may be setting up an extra undertrick for them, but undoubled undertricks aren't a real concern at imps, when a game is on the line.

 

We will be reducing to a 7 card endgame. In the meantime, both opps will make discards.... even the strongest players will sometimes be forced to give you some information, and weaker players will often not only tell you what you need to know but make costly mistakes as well.

 

In other words, running the clubs is virtually cost free and may be helpful.. therefore it is best to do it.

 

I was picturing RHO with AJ9xx(x) in spades and Kx in diamonds.... if that appeared, in the endgame, to be probable, I would cash the top heart, to strip rho of any heart he might hold, and then exit the spade Q. I wasn't committing to this line, since there are cards the opps could play to make me revert to the finesse.

 

As it happened, clubs were 3-3 and LHO pitched 2 spades on the last clubs and rho pitched a small spade. This allowed me to play to the diamond A, since if the K was onside, and LHO had another spade, they could no longer cash enough spades to beat me, and, in the meantime, if rho originally held 6 spades and the stiff diamond K, I was making the rest of the tricks.

 

Yes, the opps misdefended by their discards, but (and this is why I posted in the B/I forum), opps often do this when you run a long suit. Plus, I think the basic point that many players do not appreciate is that it is almost always a good idea to test a side suit like clubs in this type of scenario... if it may get you to within a trick of your contract and the opps have to guard another of your suits.

 

Of course, I lost 3 imps on the board when LHO held the diamond King.. my counterpart saw no option beyond winnning the first spade and running the diamond Jack... later playing on clubs.

[jtfanclub]

I certainly would not want partner raising to 2 with:

xxxx

Qxxxx

K

Jxx

 

(I'd much prefer partner bid 3S...)

Oh, that is death. That is, like, permanent death.

 

Lemme do a LOTT on this one, real quicklike. Let's assume total 17, and (since you have 5 hearts) their fit must be in a minor. Then I'll explain why I think LOTT is wrong.

 

If you make 9 tricks, and they make 8, 3♠X= is great. Wanna give odds on that?

If you make 8 tricks, and they make 9, 3♠X-1 loses you a net of 90.

If you make 7 tricks, and they make 10, 3♠X-2 loses you a net of 370. Ouch.

If you make 6 tricks, and they make 11, 3♠X-3 loses you a net of 200.

Abut the only time it's going to be good is if you talk them out of a making slam. I seriously doubt it.

 

So the LOTT says bidding 3 here is bad. But I say the LOTT is wrong. It's not bad.

It's worse.

 

You have minor honors in their suits. You don't have any honors in your suit. That implies defense. The singleton king is often worth a trick on defense, but they'll always pick it up when you're dummy. Likewise, queens headed by nothing tend to be more likely to pick up a trick on defense. You don't have the solid tricks in long suits or honor support in your trump suit that point to offense. I would expect the total trumps to outnumber the total tricks by at least one, maybe two. It's not at all the right hand for 3♠.

 

JTxx

KQTxx

x

xxx

 

That hand should probably bid 3♠. You have good honors for partner in his suit, and you can probably establish hearts (while they'll just get ruffed if the opponents get the contract).

 

Or in pre-LOTT terms, I think your hand is worth 1 trick on defense and 2 tricks on offense: not enough to pre-empt. On the other hand, I think my hand is still worth one trick on defense, but now it's worth an amazing 4 tricks on offense. That's pre-emptive.

 

You can't just jump to the three level with a 9 card fit. Gotta read the fine print on the LOTT.

[jtfanclub]

but undoubled undertricks aren't a real concern at imps, when a game is on the line.

I guess I don't agree.

 

Yes, we're talking a 700 point difference (12 IMPs) between making and not making, and certainly that makes a difference. But as you saw, this loses you you 3 IMPs when the finesse is on and the suit splits, and loses you 3 or 5 IMPs when the suit doesn't split and the finesse is off, and probably 1 IMP if the suit doesn't split and the finesse is on (or more if somebody sluffs a 'worthless' club when running the diamonds).

 

So, yeah, the 12 is big....

Split & Finesse is off & you can find a squeeze or throw: +12

Split & Finesse is off & you can't find a squeeze or throw: 0

Split & Finesse is on: -3

No split & Finesse is on: -1

No split & finesse is off: -3

And of course, split is off and diamond finesse is on but diamonds are 4-1: -12

 

So part of this is my ability. Am I good enough to figure out when the squeeze is set up? I guess I don't think so. +12s are nice, but -3s are nothing to be sneezed at.