Declarer Problem

[vuroth]

[hv=d=n&v=e&n=s2hkj2dkjt43cqt64&s=saq3haqt95dq52c82]133|200|Scoring: Total Points

Bidding is:

P P 1♥ P

3♥ P 4♥ all pass[/hv]

 

West leads the 9♦ - 3, 7, Q.

 

Plan the play.

 

As always, I apologize if the problem isn't as interesting/useful as I thought it was.

[jtfanclub]

You don't have the entries to ruff two spades on the board and get back to your hand, or to get to the diamonds after drawing trumps.

 

Looks like the only hope is to play one trump to the jack, finesse the spade, ruff a spade with the king, draw trump, and claim (play diamonds first). Any other plan you'll lose a diamond, a diamond ruff, and two clubs, or else a diamond, two clubs, and a spade.

 

Didn't somebody have a hand here yesterday with an 11 count where all of his points were in trumps and his long suit except for one queen? This hand shows why that combination isn't as impressive as it looks.

[1eyedjack]

There is a chance that one hand holds doubleton Diamond and fewer than 3 Hearts, in which case drawing 2 rounds of trumps (preserving a high trump in dummy) then forcing out the Ace of Diamonds, and only then drawing the last trump would work. But I go with jt answer as being more likely to succeed.

 

Incidentally, it would not work against a good declarer, but I would have played the Diamond King at trick 1 to try to induce the cover. Give them a chance to go wrong. Every now and then even a good player will fall for it.

[jtfanclub]

There is a chance that one hand holds doubleton Diamond and fewer than 3 Hearts, in which case drawing 2 rounds of trumps (preserving a high trump in dummy) then forcing out the Ace of Diamonds, and only then drawing the last trump would work.

Only if the 'fewer than three hearts' is exactly two. Otherwise the person with the ace of diamonds holds up once, takes his ace, and then fires a trump back, with one left to ruff those diamonds.

[vuroth]

There is a chance that one hand holds doubleton Diamond and fewer than 3 Hearts, in which case drawing 2 rounds of trumps (preserving a high trump in dummy) then forcing out the Ace of Diamonds, and only then drawing the last trump would work.

Only if the 'fewer than three hearts' is exactly two. Otherwise the person with the ace of diamonds holds up once, takes his ace, and then fires a trump back, with one left to ruff those diamonds.

I think all this line requires is that trumps are 3-2 (67%?), and that the diamond ace is in the same hand as the longer trump. Any diamond split works. Ergo, this line is 33%?

 

The spade finesse looks like it awfully close to a straight 50% shoot.

 

Naturally, I chose the inferior line at the table, so I'm glad I posted this.

 

The interesting point of the hand, which I guess was too easy for the vocal posters here, was that transportation was an issue. The beginner strategy of just drawing trump MIGHT work against poor defense, but it should NOT work.

 

Sorry, I guess the hand was a little too easy. Back to work for me!

[jtfanclub]

I think all this line requires is that trumps are 3-2 (67%?), and that the diamond ace is in the same hand as the longer trump. Any diamond split works. Ergo, this line is 33%?

Trumps 3-2 is only 60%, so base of 30%.

 

Odds are lower, because we know the diamond ace isn't singleton, and if either player had Ax they should have played the Ace on the first trick. So you're asking for short-short, which is less likely than short-long, though the odds aren't that much. In other words, if diamonds are Axxx across x, the odds that the person with the singleton will only have 2 trumps are lower than the odds of the Axxx person having the the shorter trumps.

[y66]

Don't think we're making this if SK is offside. Heart to king, spade to queen, SA, ruff spade. Good problem.

[han]

Good problem.

Definitely.

[gwnn]

http://www.durangobill.com/BrSplitStats.html

[han]

Good point Csaba.

[jtfanclub]

http://www.durangobill.com/BrSplitStats.html

Huh, my mistake. I wonder what I was reading?