Endplayed

[SchTsch]

[hv=d=e&v=n&s=saxhjxdakxxcaxxxx]133|100|Scoring: MP[/hv]

 

You are VUL against nonVUL playing MPs and your RHO opens 3♥.

What now?

[whereagles]

3NT and hope for the best... maybe pard has Qxx or Kxx.

[effervesce]

Ouch. Looks like any bid from you here will likely end up in a minus. Passing for a +ve score should be good. Even at IMPs I might still pass.

[pclayton]

Easy pass.

 

Even I will allow myself to get fixed once in awhile.

[Guest Jlall]

I saw rodwell pass with this hand type once but it was like a 20 count heh. Anyways, agree with pass for sure. If you have seen this hand type before you will be able to do it in tempo!

[whereagles]

The thing with pass is pard will also pass with 9-10 hcp and a heart stop and game may be lost. E.g.

 

Kxx

Axx

xxx

Qxxx

[Guest Jlall]

The thing with pass is pard will also pass with 9-10 hcp and a heart stop and game may be lost. E.g.

 

Kxx

Axx

xxx

Qxxx

yes, this could happen!

[jdonn]

I saw rodwell pass with this hand type once but it was like a 20 count heh. Anyways, agree with pass for sure. If you have seen this hand type before you will be able to do it in tempo!

This is a pass. But I have to admit with a hand like this but 20 I couldn't resist doing something hehe.

[pclayton]

The thing with pass is pard will also pass with 9-10 hcp and a heart stop and game may be lost. E.g.

 

Kxx

Axx

xxx

Qxxx

And the thing with 3N is that pard will have a perfectly normal pass of 3N with many, many other hands that do not contain a heart stopper and you will quietly go down 3 or 4 vulnerable.

 

Nuno, if you get doubled are you running?

[whereagles]

1. And the thing with 3N is that pard will have a perfectly normal pass of 3N with many, many other hands that do not contain a heart stopper and you will quietly go down 3 or 4 vulnerable.

 

2. Nuno, if you get doubled are you running?

1. A quick simulation (RHO 6-7 hearts 5-11 hcp, pard stops if Qxx+ or A+) shows pard has an average of 8 hcp and there's a stop 44% of the time. These seem like good odds for teams, but probably not at pairs.

 

2. No.

[jdonn]

1. And the thing with 3N is that pard will have a perfectly normal pass of 3N with many, many other hands that do not contain a heart stopper and you will quietly go down 3 or 4  vulnerable.

 

2. Nuno, if you get doubled are you running?

1. A quick simulation (RHO 6-7 hearts 5-11 hcp, pard stops if Qxx+ or A+) shows pard has an average of 8 hcp and there's a stop 44% of the time. These seem like good odds for teams, but probably not at pairs.

If we take the 44%, that is not good odds at teams (at least not necessarily) because the generous odds to bid a vul game at teams assume making or down 1. If this is down it could easily be down a lot, and you even admit you aren't running if doubled. Not to mention the 44% is how often you have game strength and hearts stopped. If you make game on 3/4 of those hands that means only 33%.

 

Another reason is that on a few of those hands, not that many I admit but some, partner will balance with 3♠ or 3NT himself, so you would be even lower than the 44% on hands that are being passed out.

 

I think your sim shows pretty clearly that 3NT is not best.

[pclayton]

1. A quick simulation (RHO 6-7 hearts 5-11 hcp, pard stops if Qxx+ or A+) shows pard has an average of 8 hcp and there's a stop 44% of the time.

I don't understand this.

 

Are saying that pard will have Qxx or Ax (+) 44% of the time?

 

Or are you saying that 3N will make 44% of the time after the Qxx / Ax condition is satisfied?

[jdonn]

1. A quick simulation (RHO 6-7 hearts 5-11 hcp, pard stops if Qxx+ or A+) shows pard has an average of 8 hcp and there's a stop 44% of the time.

I don't understand this.

 

Are saying that pard will have Qxx or Ax (+) 44% of the time?

 

Or are you saying that 3N will make 44% of the time after the Qxx / Ax condition is satisfied?

He is saying 44% of the time partner has 8+ and hearts stopped. I think.

 

Now that I reread it looks like he is saying two things. Partner averages 8+, and he has hearts stopped 44% of the time. So eh now I don't know.

[awm]

Another point against 3NT is that opener will not bid 3♥ with any random hand including 6-7 hearts and 5-11 hcp. Especially the hands with only six hearts will tend to contain some top honors in the suit, reducing the chance of partner holding a stopper.

 

And it's not like 3NT is automatically cold if partner has a stopper; we could still be well short of nine tricks.

 

How bad is 4♣ on this hand type? While it appears to rule out 3NT, you're not likely to get to 3NT by passing these cards either. Obviously you could go for a number if partner is broke and things are breaking badly, but you do have game values "on average", and this call could easily get you to a making 4♠ or 5m on hands where partner was passing out 3♥...

[Guest Jlall]

Another point against 3NT is that opener will not bid 3♥ with any random hand including 6-7 hearts and 5-11 hcp. Especially the hands with only six hearts will tend to contain some top honors in the suit, reducing the chance of partner holding a stopper.

 

And it's not like 3NT is automatically cold if partner has a stopper; we could still be well short of nine tricks.

This is what I was going to post word for word.

[whereagles]

He is saying 44% of the time partner has 8+ and hearts stopped. I think.

 

Now that I reread it looks like he is saying two things. Partner averages 8+, and he has hearts stopped 44% of the time. So eh now I don't know.

Sorry, that wasn't very clear. I was saying that 44% of the time there is a stop, pard not necessarily having with 8 hcp simultaneously. Then I said he will have 8 hcp on average, but won't always have a stop.

 

I reran the simulation so that I get the percentage of time game is ok, i.e. there's a stop AND pard has 8+ hcp.

 

If I allow for a 6 card heart suit, we get to a good game 32% of the time. If I demand a 7 card suit for the pree, game is good only 24% of the time. Those are bad odds, so I have to concede pass is statistically the better bid.

 

HOWEVER, I didn't factor out stuff like a block in hearts, say, the suit breaking like

 

[hv=n=stxx&w=sk&e=saqxxxxx&s=sjx]399|300|[/hv]

So odds can improve slightly. And there's always the chance leftie leads.. spades :)

[benlessard]

I play that my X are semi penalty so these hand are perfect for us. But playing standard i would still X. If partner bid 4S he might have 5 or 6. If he bid 3S ill try 3Nt hoping he understand that i have only half a stopper (+ both minors or a long minor.)

[han]

Nuno, you still didn't count for the fact that partner will bid on some of the hands where you can make game.

 

And again, the percentage should be higher than 35% or so because you will often go down 3 or more. Sometimes doubled.

[whereagles]

Nuno, you still didn't count for the fact that partner will bid on some of the hands where you can make game.

hum... what were you thinking of?

[awm]

So I generated a bunch of example hands for partner, under the constraints that we have this hand and RHO has 7♥ with 5-10 hcp. After throwing out the hands where partner has an obvious balancing call, here's what I got:

 

1.

 

♠KT8654

♥T

♦T76

♣986

 

Partner might pull 3NT to 4♠, in any case a number of four level contracts (spades, clubs) are likely to fail by a trick and 3NT is awful. Passing 3♥ is the winner.

 

2.

 

♠J98743

♥86

♦764

♣T9

 

Again passing is the winner. Double and pass 3♠ from partner might survive, anything else awful.

 

3.

 

♠K965

♥A97

♦94

♣Q986

 

Bidding wins here as both 3NT and 5♣ have good prospects. Probably a 4♣ overcall is a bit better than 3NT, since if the clubs don't behave you are down only one instead of a zillion.

 

4.

 

♠QJ876

♥3

♦Q65

♣QT76

 

Some play for 5♣ or 4♠. 3NT is a disaster. Pass is an okay "middle of the road" option, bidding 4♣ seems to work out pretty well too.

 

5.

 

♠KQJ6

♥Q8

♦QJ97

♣Q98

 

Conceivable partner might balance on this, but I think not obvious to do so. Probably 4♠ on the 4-2 fit is the best game! Perhaps a win for double and pass 4♠ from partner? :)

 

6.

 

♠8654

♥Q63

♦T876

♣T7

 

Any non-pass action here is probably awful.

 

7.

 

♠KQ7653

♥43

♦J64

♣K6

 

Double and 4♣ both win here as a good 4♠ should be reached. Bidding 3NT is okay if partner pulls to 4♠ not not clear he will. Pass misses a pretty good game.

 

8.

 

♠KJT63

♥K8

♦9764

♣K7

 

Both 4♠ and 3NT from partner's side are okay, but not spectacular. Kind of a toss-up.

 

9.

 

♠JT86

♥A

♦T6

♣QJT987

 

Here 5♣ is cold and even 6♣ has some play. 3NT is basically on a club guess, not bad but I'd rather be in 5♣. Pass is a big loser here.

 

10.

 

♠QT93

♥T8

♦Q64

♣KJ98

 

Bidding 3NT seems disastrous. A 4♣ overcall is fine if partner lets you play there. Pass probably beats 3♥ a trick.

 

11.

 

♠Q987

♥A76

♦JT84

♣K8

 

Both 3NT and 5♦ seem okay, but not spectacularly good. Not clear what is best on this one either.

 

12.

 

♠Q9753

♥K

♦J965

♣KJ7

 

Not much chance for 3NT (unless maybe from partner's side). Five of a minor has chances but is not very good. Pass is best here.

 

13.

 

♠JT65

♥AQ3

♦86

♣KT97

 

Good hand for 3NT. But notice that 5♣ also has some play. Pass misses a pretty good game.

 

14.

 

♠T953

♥-

♦JT98

♣QJT97

 

Five of a minor is pretty good. 3NT horrendous. Pass misses a pretty good game (although I suppose LHO is likely to bid 4♥ and give you another chance).

 

15.

 

♠J865

♥Q

♦QT86

♣QJ86

 

Some play for 5m but it's less than 50%. 3NT is awful. Pass is the winner.

 

16.

 

♠QJ6

♥T54

♦QT4

♣Q876

 

Some chance the suit blocks in 3NT. 4♣ is okay but not five.

 

17.

 

♠QT83

♥KQ7

♦T9654

♣T

 

Partner has two heart honors! 3NT is best here, but it still might fail. 5♦ is probably down on a heart lead and ruff (lose two diamonds and a spade). Pass is okay.

 

18.

 

♠9743

♥K8

♦854

♣KQ76

 

Again, 3NT from partner's hand has chances. 3NT from our side not so much. It seems likely that 4♣ is down one, but 3♥ could make!

 

19.

 

♠QJ9873

♥K6

♦J

♣K876

 

4♠ from partner's side is quite good. Pass misses the game. 3NT may play the wrong game (and from wrong side) unless partner pulls to 4♠.

 

20.

 

♠JT865

♥T

♦QT8764

♣K

 

5♦ seems like the spot. Double or 4♣ gives us a shot to reach it; 3NT probably will get passed out and set. Pass misses another good game.

 

21.

 

♠KJ86

♥9

♦QT986

♣J87

 

Some play for four of either minor, not so much for five. Bidding 4♣ probably lets you play there, pass and 3♥ might make or be down one.

 

Looking at these, it seems like bidding 3NT is usually awful when opener has the "normal" seven card heart suit. It has a few wins but a lot more losses (some very expensive). It's a bit less bad if partner will normally pull to 4♠ on a six-card suit there, but this seems non-obvious since 3NT could be based on a running minor. On the other hand, overcalling 4♣ seems to win over pass quite frequently, although there are occasional huge disasters when partner is broke.

[jdonn]

If I allow for a 6 card heart suit, we get to a good game 32% of the time. If I demand a 7 card suit for the pree, game is good only 24% of the time. Those are bad odds, so I have to concede pass is statistically the better bid.

This is fine, but I'm saying game is worse since, lets say you get to a "good" game 28% of the time, but a good game will only make say, 75% of the time. So you are only bidding and making game like 21%, plus the few times it was a bad game but made.

[whereagles]

awm: good analysis. Thx for your time. Conclusion seems to be "it sucks not to have 3 spades" :)

 

jdonn: yeah, "good game" doesn't equal "making game".

 

I now think we probably must pass this one. Simulations show that lack of the stopper in this case is much more important than in general. Bid 3NT or dbl if you have to (or vs opps that open on raggy suits), but it's not the percentage play.

[awm]

Here's what I think is interesting. Suppose we just compare pass vs. bidding 4♣. We assume that partner will pass 4♣ holding two small hearts in a fairly flat hand and less than 10 hcp or so. In this case:

 

Pass wins boards: 1, 2, 5, 6, 12, 15, 17

4♣ overcall wins: 3, 7, 9, 13, 14, 19, 20

Tossup: 4, 8, 10, 11, 16, 18, 21

 

That looks pretty dead-even to me! Yet bidding 4♣ has received almost no discussion.

[han]

Here's what I think is interesting. Suppose we just compare pass vs. bidding 4♣. We assume that partner will pass 4♣ holding two small hearts in a fairly flat hand and less than 10 hcp or so. In this case:

 

Pass wins boards: 1, 2, 5, 6, 12, 15, 17

4♣ overcall wins: 3, 7, 9, 13, 14, 19, 20

Tossup: 4, 8, 10, 11, 16, 18, 21

 

That looks pretty dead-even to me! Yet bidding 4♣ has received almost no discussion.

I think 10 and 11 are raises so those are plusses for pass (on both 4C turns a plus into a minus).

 

You rank 13 as a win for 4C while 5C is not guaranteed and 3H is down several. As you point out yourself, pass is not necessarily the end on 14 yet you ranked it as such.

 

On the other hand, pass on 15 is not clearly a winner.

 

On 18 4C is indeed down 1 but partner is never passing 4C. Seems a winner for pass. On 21 again I'd expect partner to raise 4C so that would be another minus for 4C.

 

So I don't agree on exactly one third of the hands. Some of them I think you were quite wrong, on others it is much closer, and on the majority I completely agree with you. I guess it shows that the results of 4C on this hand depends very much on how partner will bid. I'd like my partner to expect a better suit and he shouldn't be afraid to raise on Kx if he has a decent hand or if he has a 7-count, 3-card support and heart shortness.

 

Also, the assumption that opener has a 7-card suit is a strong one and wouldn't apply in modern bridge white against red. If you lower it to 6 then partner's expected clubs go down a bit and hearts go up a bit.

 

Still very interesting to go over these hands, thanks for posting them.

[jdonn]

Here's what I think is interesting. Suppose we just compare pass vs. bidding 4♣. We assume that partner will pass 4♣ holding two small hearts in a fairly flat hand and less than 10 hcp or so. In this case:

 

Pass wins boards: 1, 2, 5, 6, 12, 15, 17

4♣ overcall wins: 3, 7, 9, 13, 14, 19, 20

Tossup: 4, 8, 10, 11, 16, 18, 21

 

That looks pretty dead-even to me! Yet bidding 4♣ has received almost no discussion.

Sorry 4♣ doesn't even merit discussion. It completely closes out the two biggest reasons for entering over 3♥ in general (3♥X and 3NT), and makes little progress toward the third (4♠). If clubs break badly you will get MASSACRED, not merely beaten. On some of the hands you show 4♣ winning or a tossup, I either disagree with your analysis of what will happen next, or note that LHO will raise anyway after which I'm certainly doubling for penalty when 4♥ comes back, for better or worse. I mean you really think partner is not raising if you bid 4♣ vulnerable on the four level on 10, or 11, or 18, or 21? I can't even take that thought seriously.

 

BTW giving RHO 7 hearts is not realistic. In modern bridge when they are w/r, it obviously depends on the opponents, but for some 6 is almost guaranteed, for others it's a tossup. If you increase partner's expected heart length passing does even better.