Expectations?

[1eyedjack]

[hv=d=e&v=n&s=saj82hk65d853cj62]133|100|Scoring: IMP

E...S...W...N

1♥..P..1♠..2♣

2♥..??[/hv]

And would a different scoring or vul make a difference?

[Guest Jlall]

3C, don't see much merit to anything else. It's too good to pass, we may have a game, we may have a double partial, we may be able to push them up, etc.

[1eyedjack]

3C, don't see much merit to anything else. It's too good to pass, we may have a game, we may have a double partial, we may be able to push them up, etc.

Is 3♣ going to get you to game when it is there? You make a strong case for not passing, but the same comments might apply to some of the other options.

[Free]

Game seems far away, but 3♣ is the least you can do imo.

[hotShot]

I don't know your partnerships overcall style, my partner could have 5+♣ with 10+ HCP. We do have a ♣ fit, so opps will usually have a fit too.

I don't believe in game, but I won't allow them to play 2♥. And I won't allow west to show extra ♠ length with a simple 2♠ call. With ♦ stopper I would bid 2NT, but without one, this is no option.

This leaves 3♣ as best choice.

[Guest Jlall]

3C, don't see much merit to anything else. It's too good to pass, we may have a game, we may have a double partial, we may be able to push them up, etc.

Is 3♣ going to get you to game when it is there? You make a strong case for not passing, but the same comments might apply to some of the other options.

Sure, I'm raising, I think I have a fairly average hand for this raise, it's on the higher end in HCP but it's a pretty crappy 9. I guess I don't get it, are you implying this hand is too good to raise to 3 or too bad?

 

edit: OK re-read your comment obviously you are implying a cuebid or 2N might be better, I guess I just think this hand is not good enough. I suppose 2N is possible but we need a lot to make game and I could see myself bidding 2N with even a king more. Having one heart stopper only and not much of a club filler doesn't seem great.

[1eyedjack]

Yes your edit hits my concerns.

I was thinking that 2N should show something like this.

If partner doesn't like it he can still pull to 3♣.

With a full-blooded 2N bid (ie with a King more) I would take the pressure off and go straight to 3N.

 

Ancillary question. What odds are required for 3N in a situation where you are either making or going SCREAMING off?

[Guest Jlall]

Yes your edit hits my concerns.

I was thinking that 2N should show something like this.

If partner doesn't like it he can still pull to 3♣.

With a full-blooded 2N bid (ie with a King more) I would take the pressure off and go straight to 3N.

 

Ancillary question.  What odds are required for 3N in a situation where you are either making or going SCREAMING off?

They are not very good if you can make 3C, even if the opps will never X, which they might well. If you can't make 3C and they never X then pretty good.

 

I guess it could come down to a style issue regarding what constitutes a 2C overcall, and thus what constitutes a bid over a 2N invite or a 3C raise. I suspect I overcall a lot lighter than you in this situation, and bid more aggressively over a 2N and 3C raise. I would not bid 3C here ever with some hand like 6-7 points and 3 clubs and a flat hand. So in my mind this is a perfectly down the middle 3C hand and I wouldn't be worried about missing game because if partner has all the required tricks I would be expecting him to bid. I would expect partner to gamble out 3N with a lot of hands over a 2N bid though, and I would always have a stronger hand than this to bid 2N in this auction.

 

Oh and on an amusing note, I was playing with my dad in some sectional and I had a 14 count with stiff Q of clubs w/r. It went 1H p 1S 2C 2S ? to me... And the opps were little old ladies! I bid 2N and he bid 3C having AKxxxx and out or something lol. No point to this story since I'm sure most people would never overcall 2C with that hand, just thought it was funny.

[hotShot]

East opened and West bid 1over1 so they should have 17+HCP so the odds seem very bad.

But if partner has 6♣ and a ♦ stopper, ♥_K and ♠A you will be able to make 9 tricks.

 

But I guess the chance to go "screaming off" is less than 15%.

[1eyedjack]

East opened and West bid 1over1 so they should have 17+HCP so the odds seem very bad.

More and more these days I am finding that this assumption is flawed in practice. I remember another thread some months ago in these forums where I was surprised by the strength of support for a natural, strong sandwich 1N, where I have always used it as 2-suiter for the same reason that you present. But I am now converted. In a vacuum the odds may be as you say, but perhaps those odds change when partner bids to try to persuade you otherwise.

[1eyedjack]

OK here is the offending hand, rotated for convenience and consistency with OP.

[hv=d=e&v=n&n=s3ht73dak7cakt854&w=skt954hj8dj942c93&e=sq76haq942dqt6cq7&s=saj82hk65d853cj62]399|300|Scoring: IMP

E...S...W...N

1♥..P..1♠..2♣

2♥..3♣..P...P

P[/hv]

I was the 3♣ bidder.

We cast a veil over the 2♥ bid. It may well have discouraged us in which case it was effective this time.

Given the preceding comments in this thread I am expecting some criticism of the 2♣ bid, but at the time it did not seem poor to me. Maybe he should double 1♠. Maybe he should bid 3♦ over 3♣.

But given that he has BOTH majors wide open, both of which have been bid by opponents I can sympathise with Pass. He is certainly correct in his assessment that there is no play for 5♣.

Whatever the shortcomings of our auction (and we were a pickup partnership with no history of "style" on which to draw), I noticed when looking at the traveller that not one of the 16 pairs sniffed at 3N.

If partner can be assumed to hold a good 6 card suit for the 2♣ bid, we do not need the classical point count for 3N, and as in this case 23 points were enough and to spare - always assuming that the Clubs come in without loss.

[hotShot]

Ok another approach:

 

Partner did not dbl!

You know where 8-9♥'s are, distribute 5-4 between your partner and west.

You know where 8♠'s are, distribute 5 between your partner and east.

You know where 3♦ are, distribute 10 between partner and opps. (East had an cheap 2♦ bid avaiable.)

You know where 8♣ are distribute 5 between your opps.

 

So your partner should have 5+♣ and 4♦, with a strong hand he could have dbled to tell you about that. So he is either to weak to dbl or he does not have 4♦ (reducing the chance that he has a stopper by 25%).

[P_Marlowe]

Hi,

 

it is either 3C or Pass.

 

We raise, ... but we sometimes go for 300 / 500.

Dont know, if there is a relation between this eagerness

to raise and those scores.

 

With kind regards

Marlowe

[Guest Jlall]

I don't think anyone can fault 2C, what else? North might have bid over 3C but the 2H bid combined with his heart holding suggests you won't have hearts stopped a huge amount of the time and may well go down in 4C so I don't mind the pass that much.

 

So I guess I would duplicate this auction...guess I suck :)

 

BTW: I guess the 2H bid did get you, if east had passed then I think north should definitely move over a 3C raise.

[the hog]

3C, don't see much merit to anything else. It's too good to pass, we may have a game, we may have a double partial, we may be able to push them up, etc.

Is 3♣ going to get you to game when it is there? You make a strong case for not passing, but the same comments might apply to some of the other options.

Very likely it will. Pd will bid 3D with a decent hand and a D stop and now you can now bid an easy 3NT.

[hotShot]

...

We cast a veil over the 2♥ bid. It may well have discouraged us in which case it was effective this time.

Given the preceding comments in this thread I am expecting some criticism of the 2♣ bid, but at the time it did not seem poor to me. Maybe he should double 1♠. Maybe he should bid 3♦ over 3♣.

But given that he has BOTH majors wide open, both of which have been bid by opponents I can sympathise with Pass. He is certainly correct in his assessment that there is no play for 5♣.

...

You promised 3-card support in ♣, so he knows about your 9 card fit. He knows that his ♣ suit is worth 5-6 tricks now and that he has 2♦ tricks. He knows that he has just 1♠ to lose. He should assume that if opps have 8 cards in ♥ this would leave you with just 2.

 

So if you have a ♥-stopper or only 2- ♥'s, 4♣ will usually make. If you have a ♥stopper and a ♠ stopper to his 7-8 tricks you might make 3NT.

[1eyedjack]

So if you have a ♥-stopper or only 2- ♥'s, 4♣ will usually make.

Yes that is the nub of the thing, isn't it. Is "will usually make" good enough to justify committing to the 4 level? As Hog mentions, over partner's 3♦ I have (this time) an easy 3N bid. Most often I will have an "easy" 4♣ bid, which might not be an easy make. And the hands where I will have a hand suitable for the easy 3N bid are so infrequent (I believe), that 4♣ has to be that much more certain a plus spot to justify the action.

 

On reflection I think that 3♦ is the bid, but I am still unconvinced that 2N as a tentative game try by South is a poor style.

[whereagles]

Justin, r those girls next to your name your sisters??

 

Incidently, 3♣ + a lost game for me.

[Guest Jlall]

So if you have a ♥-stopper or only 2- ♥'s, 4♣ will usually make.

Yes that is the nub of the thing, isn't it. Is "will usually make" good enough to justify committing to the 4 level? As Hog mentions, over partner's 3♦ I have (this time) an easy 3N bid. Most often I will have an "easy" 4♣ bid, which might not be an easy make. And the hands where I will have a hand suitable for the easy 3N bid are so infrequent (I believe), that 4♣ has to be that much more certain a plus spot to justify the action.

 

On reflection I think that 3♦ is the bid, but I am still unconvinced that 2N as a tentative game try by South is a poor style.

It seems unusual to me that you want the hand with all the tricks to not be the one trying for game, and that you want the relatively weak hand to be trying because he has a couple of stoppers.

 

You are saying that partner rates to have a good 6 card suit etc, etc, but why can't he bid that for himself. If he has AK AK or the like and a 6 card suit he can make a try himself when you show some values and a fit. If he just has AK KJ or something then he can pass himself.

 

I would ask you if you would bid 3C with much less, and if you would bid 2C with much less. I can't imagine passing a hand like, say, xx xx Kxx AKQxxx, and I imagine you would bid with xxx xx Axx AKQTx. I imagine you could overcall weaker than those hands too. The first hand just seems like a 3N bid to me after 2N, 6 solid clubs and a king, if partner has a random 11 count with stoppers you must be a favorite to make 3N. The second hand I would also try 3N as well, it's closer but you have a good source of tricks and a significant majority of the deck. Both of those hands will be easy passes over 3C though.

 

On the other hand I don't think you would compete to the 3 level that light unless you had shape (a good hand for clubs and/or a sac, but maybe not for NT). It seems like with the 2 hands given the 2C bidder has way more extra than the 3C bidder.

 

Other reasons to bid 3C: they are more likely to compete over 3C than 2N, and if partner is passing 2N then 3C then is probably a better partial (I agree that most of his "weak" hands will be with 6 clubs though and you will get to 3C either way).

[the hog]

Justin, r those girls next to your name your sisters??

 

Incidently, 3♣ + a lost game for me.

Nuno, I think you should come to Laos. Most beautiful women in Asia.

 

Re the lost game - nah, bid 3D like a man!

[whereagles]

Nuno, I think you should come to Laos. Most beautiful women in Asia.

hum..... well, that's tempting indeed :)

[1eyedjack]

It seems unusual to me that you want the hand with all the tricks to not be the one trying for game, and that you want the relatively weak hand to be trying because he has a couple of stoppers.

Agree it's unusual. It was just an idea. It seemed to have 2 significant plus points going for it - (1) it allows you to bail out in 3♣ if the game try is declined, while any GT by partner will be above that bid, and (2) partner may be disinclined to make the try on the unlikely offchance that I have both the stoppers.

[ArtK78]

Not getting to game on these cards is not the worst sin in the world. On the expected heart lead (and possibly even on a spade lead) you are likely down if the ♣Q does not fall.

 

North might make a move over a raise to 3♣, but I expect that NS will play in 3♣ on this auction.

[dcvetkov]

Not getting to game on these cards is not the worst sin in the world. On the expected heart lead (and possibly even on a spade lead) you are likely down if the ♣Q does not fall.

 

North might make a move over a raise to 3♣, but I expect that NS will play in 3♣ on this auction.

Ditto

 

One sensible bid for North is 3♦, confirming stopper and asking South to bid 3NT with stoppers in other suits and generally good maximum hand. Many South may they re-evaluate and then bid 3NT, but this contract will be a minority.

[1eyedjack]

Not getting to game on these cards is not the worst sin in the world. On the expected heart lead (and possibly even on a spade lead) you are likely down if the ♣Q does not fall.

Yes, I did not think that needed stating. Still, Q falling in 2 rounds is better than 50% - well over the minimum justification.