Preempts, they suck.

[benlessard]

I play NLM so for me a cue bid followed by 6C describe this hand nicely.

[whereagles]

Nick: your pard underbid (5 or even 6♣ are better bids), but one could try 4♦ over his 4♣ (assuming you got 6 of them - pretty clear with 7 diams to bid 4[ði]), on grounds that pard is short in spades and thus should have at least mild diamond support.

[NickRW]

Can anyone do a simulation? I bet 7C isn't as bad as I initially thought and we are just trained to be really risk averse with grands to an irrational point when we learn bridge. Would be interested how often 7C makes and how often 6C makes.

DD analysis of 100 hands where East has 7+ hearts or 6 hearts to the QJ shows:

 

12 cases not even 6C makes

88 cases 6C (or 7) makes

and of these, 51 cases 7C makes

 

Also: North makes 7D in 36 cases, 7S in 3 cases, 7N in 21 cases.

 

Of the 37 cases where 6C makes exactly, 12 of them makes 7 of something else

 

Of the 12 cases where even 6C doesn't make, 4 of them make 6 of something else

 

Nick

[NickRW]

Nick: your pard underbid (5 or even 6♣ are better bids), but one could try 4♦ over his 4♣ (assuming you got 6 of them - pretty clear with 7 diams to bid 4[ði]), on grounds that pard is short in spades and thus should have at least mild diamond support.

Yes, on deeper reflection I should have pulled the 4C. Indeed as my partner wasn't experienced and the opps were, I should probably have trusted their bidding more and pulled to at least 5D, not 4. My bad.

 

I've disciplined myself over the years to trust partner and distrust opps bidding and carding - probably this is a rule I should have thrown out in these particular circumstances.

 

Nick

[whereagles]

I've disciplined myself over the years to trust partner and distrust opps bidding and carding - probably this is a rule I should have thrown out in these particular circumstances.

Trusting pard is ok, but only up to the extent he can be trusted. Same thing goes to trusting the opponents: if RHO opens 1♠, it's fairly safe to assume he's got 11+ hcp and 5 cards, even if pard overcalls and starts making slam tries :)

[SoTired]

I think DBL is a terrible bid with a spade void. You are just asking for trouble. You know partner is going to bid some number of spades. X is for those people who want to make a penalty dbl, but foolishly make a t/o dbl instead.

 

4N is also poor. You have a 6-4 and your 6 is almost solid. That means you have a 1-suited hand not a 2-suited hand. Would you like partner with 2c & 3d to bid 5D?

 

3N is so ridiculous, I shudder even thinking about it.

 

And 4C is non-forcing.

 

So every single one of the suggested bids are terrible.

 

4H makes more sense than dbl because it alerts partner to the minors and it shows a monster.

 

6C makes the most sense. It likely makes. I can't bid 7C and end up negative on this deal. I could pass and end up positive, so I would really, really hate to end up negative.

[NickRW]

Here's the 2nd part of it. Let's say you choose double, and pard of course drop kicks 4S at you. Now what?

Continuing the analysis, another 100 hands where East hand is constrained as before and North has HCP+spades >= 14.

 

6C (or more) still makes in 88 cases

Of these 7C now makes in 54 cases (3% up)

 

North can make 7D in 40 cases, 7S in 8 cases and 7N in 48 cases (all up markedly).

 

Of the 34 cases where 6C makes exactly, 19 make 7 of something else

 

Of the 12 cases where even 6C doesn't make, in all 12 of them you can make at least 6 of something else.

 

Nick

[han]

well i have a question (and be gentle, it's been awhile)... what would 4♥ : 4♠ : 6♣ (assuming opps stay quiet) mean?

Assuming you don't play non-leaping Michaels I think that partner would take that as a slam force with 5+ spades and 6+ clubs.

[SoTired]

well i have a question (and be gentle, it's been awhile)... what would 4♥ : 4♠ : 6♣ (assuming opps stay quiet) mean?

Assuming you don't play non-leaping Michaels I think that partner would take that as a slam force with 5+ spades and 6+ clubs.

Yup - that's is what I think. 4H followed by 6C shows a minor oriented hand with better clubs. It is asking about 7. Don't know what it is asking, tho. We must be void somewhere since we did not bid blackwood. So I think if partner held the ♠A, partner might bid 7C/7D.

[benlessard]

If you play leaping michael. The setup i suggest is

 

5m can be a bit streched.

Cue followed by 5m natural but sound and invite to 6.

cue followed by 6m natural but invite to 7

 

direct 5 nt both m with better C (64 or 65)

cue followed by 5nt both m with better D.

 

4nt followed by a raise both m equal lenght desire to play 6.

 

All the maj + m hand are in 4m. X and correct tend to suggest 64.

 

If you dont play nlm i strongly suggest you take a look at it. being forced to play 5m instead of 4m is a small price to pay imho.

[awm]

If you dont play nlm i strongly suggest you take a look at it. being forced to play 5m instead of 4m is a small price to pay imho.

But it's not just that you have to play 5m (possibly doubled) instead of 4m. You also can't get to your 4♠ contract when partner has a long spade suit and would bid 4♠ over 4m. And if you make the "power" overcall of 4♥ and LHO bids 5♥, partner won't know which minor you have. And partner can't bid 4NT over 4m because you have to bid 5m (regardless of whether to play or a slam try in the minor, this is a very useful call to have). And partner can't cue to make a slam try in your minor. He basically just has to guess whether to bid slam over your "could be stretched" 5m bid.

 

And for what? The ability to specify your side minor suit instead of having to bid 4♥ "spades and a minor"? Seems like a small amount to gain imho. And that's not even considering that hands with a 6+ card single suit are way more common than 5-5 or better two suiters.

[han]

If you dont play nlm i strongly suggest you take a look at it. being forced to play 5m instead of 4m is a small price to pay imho.

Recently gwnn (I believe) posted two hands: Qx KJ AQx AQxxxx and xx KJ AQx AQJxxx. The question was what to bid over their 3S playing non-leaping Michaels. After thinking about the problem a lot and running several simulations I came to the conclusion that pass was right but that I really really wanted to bid a natural, non-forcing 4C.

 

On both hands 3NT and 5C had something like 33% chance of making, 4C close to 70% if I remember correctly. 4C gives you a plus on most hands and allows partner to bid game or slam on many hands where it is right (including 4S as Adam points out).

 

Of course, these were hands where non-leaping Michaels works particularly badly. But having looked at and played non-leaping Michaels, I am glad I currently don't play it. I don't think that not having a natural 4m available is a small price to play.

[gnasher]

NLM has greater value over a 3♠ preempt, where there is no other satisfactory way to bid a heart-minor two-suiter. Over 3♥, with spades and a minor you can bid either 3♠ or 4♥, depending on strength and suit quality.

[benlessard]

On both hands 3NT and 5C had something like 33% chance of making, 4C close to 70% if I remember correctly. 4C gives you a plus on most hands and allows partner to bid game or slam on many hands where it is right (including 4S as Adam points out).

In MP ok but in IMPs if 30% to make game vs 70% to make a partscore i want to be in game.

You also can't get to your 4♠ contract when partner has a long spade suit and would bid 4♠ over 4m.

With this i agree.

 

And for what? The ability to specify your side minor suit instead of having to bid 4♥ "spades and a minor"? Seems like a small amount to gain imho. And that's not even considering that hands with a 6+ card single suit are way more common than 5-5 or better two suiters.

With this i disagree 100% You can use the 4H to show both m with S tolerance or a single minor with S tol or a slammish single m.

 

With 3361 facing 5??? i will play 4S you will play 4m. Partner rate to have a weakish 6 or 5 carder much more often then having a suit solid enough to bid 4 all by himself. If you bid 4m do you think partner will bid 4S with jxxxxx ?

 

As for being X in 5m i dont remeber last time it happened to me. The problem is that over a 3H preempt space is scarce. Playing that both 4m bids arent forcing is aiming at a too narrow target. Often making a offshape X will do the job.

 

(3H)----X-----(P)------3S

(p)-----4m. (suggesting a 64 or looking for 3nt)

 

With 23(63) shapes the X is preferable to 4m anyway. With (12)(64) shapes X is equal or slighty inferior to a 4m bid most of the time. With 33(61) bidding 4H (showing a m + S tol) is better then a direct 4m. With 13(63) i can live with 3Nt without a stopper or a heavy pass.

 

 

For slam bidding its obvious that nlm is better (most of your bid are forcing). For avoiding to play 3Mx making nlm is clearly better no need to X with 5530 shapes etc.

 

6 card suit are not way more frequent then 5-5 after a 3 level preempt and once you remove all the 6 carder where you dont really want to bid 4m anyway 2 suiters become more frequent then single suiters.

 

At MP i have no problem not playing NLM but at IMPS i consider NLM to have a a big edge over 4m natural. Both over 3S and 3H

[Guest Jlall]

On both hands 3NT and 5C had something like 33% chance of making, 4C close to 70% if I remember correctly. 4C gives you a plus on most hands and allows partner to bid game or slam on many hands where it is right (including 4S as Adam points out).

In MP ok but in IMPs if 30% to make game vs 70% to make a partscore i want to be in game.

lol...you know you have a partner right? It's amazing how bad people can be with drawing conclusions from data (ie, using logic).

[benlessard]

lol...you know you have a partner right? It's amazing how bad people can be with drawing conclusions from data (ie, using logic).

Its amazing how people draw conclusion with extrapolation instead of just reading the post.

 

In MP ok but in IMPs if 30% to make game vs 70% to make a partscore i want to be in game.Ive never said or imply that if ive got a hand that i feel is going to produce game 30% i would prefer to bid 5m then a natural 4m.

 

Just to make sure that my point is clear.

On both hands 3NT and 5C had something like 33% chance of making, 4C close to 70% if I remember correctly. 4C gives you a plus on most hands and allows partner to bid game or slam on many hands where it is right (including 4S as Adam points out).

Talking about 2 hands that are not showned and saying that game as only 30% chance of success vs 70% for the partscore appear to be a rather weak argument if we are in IMPS.

[Guest Jlall]

lol...you know you have a partner right? It's amazing how bad people can be with drawing conclusions from data (ie, using logic).

Its amazing how people draw conclusion with extrapolation instead of just reading the post.

 

In MP ok but in IMPs if 30% to make game vs 70% to make a partscore i want to be in game.Ive never said or imply that if ive got a hand that i feel is going to produce game 30% i would prefer to bid 5m then a natural 4m.

 

Just to make sure that my point is clear.

On both hands 3NT and 5C had something like 33% chance of making, 4C close to 70% if I remember correctly. 4C gives you a plus on most hands and allows partner to bid game or slam on many hands where it is right (including 4S as Adam points out).

Talking about 2 hands that are not showned and saying that game as only 30% chance of success vs 70% for the partscore appear to be a rather weak argument if we are in IMPS.

Dude, when game is good partner will raise over 4C, and when game is bad partner will pass 5C. It is not a question of getting to 5C where game makes 30 % of the time vs getting to 4C which makes 70 % of the time. When you bid 4C you will avoid game when you should, and bid game when you should. The times when 4C is going down, 5C is going down multiple tricks. It will often be doubled. Sometimes 4C will escape undoubled, and even if 4C is getting Xed you still get an extra 200 or 300 points vs 5C.

 

So it is a very good argument that on hands where game is 30 % and partscore is 70 % you are able to bid partscore and let partner raise to game when it is correct.

[benlessard]

Dude, when game is good partner will raise over 4C, and when game is bad partner will pass 5C. It is not a question of getting to 5C where game makes 30 % of the time vs getting to 4C which makes 70 % of the time. When you bid 4C you will avoid game when you should, and bid game when you should. The times when 4C is going down, 5C is going down multiple tricks. It will often be doubled. Sometimes 4C will escape undoubled, and even if 4C is getting Xed you still get an extra 200 or 300 points vs 5C.

You are rather naive thinking i didnt take partner input into account.

 

Lets say that before my partner is making a decision (without partner input) the number of tricks im expecting is something like ...

 

to make 6 = 5%

To make 5 =25%

To make 4 =49% (70% making of when you are in 4)

-1 or worse (in 4)= (21% going down in 4)

 

With these number bidding a natural 4C (and waiting for partner response) instead of taking a gamble at 3Nt or 5C will give you little profits EVEN TAKING PARTNER INPUT INTO ACCOUNT. The hands where 6 or 5 is making will have little difference except for more guessing when reaching 6.

 

(3H)----4m----(P)-----cue ...etc

(3H)----5m*---(P)-----tough spot.

*can be streched

 

The 21% hand where 4C is going down being in 5C will only cost undertricks and 3Nt is maybe less likely to be X then 4m.

It will often be doubled.

Then i guess you dont bid 5C or 4C with the same hand then I because I rarely get doubled in these situations.

 

So where the profits are is when we are making exactly 10 tricks in clubs and 3Nt is going down and when partner make the correct decision bidding 5 when 5 is making and passing 4 when 5 isnt there.

 

We all know that some of the hand partner will pass 4 and 5 is making & bid 5 when 4 is the limit. Add to that some of the hands where 3Nt is making and 4C going down and at the end you will get little profits.

 

What we need to compare is the amount of expected imps (or mp) a NLM empty space will give you VS the profits (IMHO small) the availability of a nat 4m bid will give you.