Prove me wrong

[pclayton]

Red / Red

 

♠AKJ9xx ♥KJx ♦AKQ9 ♣---

 

1♣ on left, pard passes RHO bids 1♥. You double (feel free to disagree).

 

2♣ on left, 5♣ on right.

 

Now what?

[whereagles]

Dbl coz we might belong in diamonds.

[TimG]

You double (feel free to disagree).

I disagree. I don't want to be faced with a high level decision without first getting my primary suit into the auction.

[manudude03]

Agree with double the first time, hate overcalling with that many playing tricks. Now, count me in for another double, but wouldn't be that surprised if partner left it and it made. I expect -2 or so if it was left in though, and if partner runs, well there's a good chance of where he runs to will make.

[P_Marlowe]

Hi,

 

X

 

I am pretty sure, I would have doubled, the first time.

Luckily they are red, I think red vs. green, I would

bid 5S.

 

With kind regards

Marlowe

[jdonn]

Hard to disagree with the first double, not like you expect it to be above 4♠ next round. Now I double again.

[Guest Jlall]

First X is clear, your hand is obviously huge. Second time I X again, they got me with this 5C bid, wd.

[ArtK78]

Much too good to overcall the first time. Besides, you can handle any response from partner.

 

Have to double 5♣. If we play in 5♣x, I would be surprised if they made it, but I have been surprised before.

[kenrexford]

Quadruple.

[neilkaz]

5♠ for me noting pard passed up the chance to bid 2♦ earlier and I expect to make it quite often and if somehow we have slam, he knows I have a huge hand.

 

5♣x will sound too much like a penalty double to my PD's at this level on this auction and while I don't like bidding 5 over 5, I suspect 5♠ makes quite often.

[ArtK78]

5♠ for me noting pard passed up the chance to bid 2♦ earlier and I expect to make it quite often and if somehow we have slam, he knows I have a huge hand.

 

5♣x will sound too much like a penalty double to my PD's at this level on this auction and while I don't like bidding 5 over 5, I suspect 5♠ makes quite often.

Of course it is a penalty double. But in this context it is a penalty double with shortness in clubs. In other words, a great offensive hand that is unwilling to defend 5♣ undoubled.

[han]

First X is clear...

I expected you would bid 4S. :P

[Free]

Agree, although I usually play 2♣ as showing ♠ and ♦ with longer ♠. Without this, a Dbl is clear imo.

 

Now Dbl, the most flexible call.

[awm]

I think double being "flexible" here is a myth.

 

Partner didn't have enough shape to bid spades or diamonds over 2♣. There is virtually no chance that partner is bidding over 5♣ if you double.

 

This is not to say that double is necessarily the wrong call, but if you think partner will pull the double any significant fraction of the times that 5♠ or 5♦ is making, I think you're deluding yourself.

 

My view is that 5♠ will very often make here. What do we need to make 5♠? Not a whole lot. And while 5♣ will usually go down one or two, it's also quite possible that 5♣ makes. So I'd try the 5♠ bid. The IMP scores seem to imply that even if I am bidding 5♠ when both five-level contracts are failing more often than I actually make 5♠, it may still be favorable to bid it.

[Codo]

I think the double is flexible in a way:

It shows any strong semibalanced hand from the example hand up to

AKxx, KJx, AKQx,Jx.

 

So I share Adams doubt that partner will take it out quite often. He needs at least a 5 card suit, so double buries any spade contract.

[Guest Jlall]

Partner didn't have enough shape to bid spades or diamonds over 2♣. There is virtually no chance that partner is bidding over 5♣ if you double.

Def agree.

 

My view is that 5♠ will very often make here.

 

I think this is an overestimate. There is some chance that partner will have no entry, or only one entry that will not be good enough to pick up hearts for 1 loser. I think losing 2 hearts and 1 spade is a very real possibility.

 

I also think that we get down 2 more than down 1 by a lot, especially on hands where we can make 5S.

[dcvetkov]

Partner didn't have enough shape to bid spades or diamonds over 2♣. There is virtually no chance that partner is bidding over 5♣ if you double.

Def agree.

 

My view is that 5♠ will very often make here.

 

I think this is an overestimate. There is some chance that partner will have no entry, or only one entry that will not be good enough to pick up hearts for 1 loser. I think losing 2 hearts and 1 spade is a very real possibility.

 

I also think that we get down 2 more than down 1 by a lot, especially on hands where we can make 5S.

I agree with all this.

 

I expect partner to be complete bust here, and even losing 3 hearts is not hard to visualize, unless queen of spades is un dummy. This hand will play everything from declarer;s hand.

 

Bidding 4S first time is not so crazy as it looks and it may buy the hand. I mean, do you really expect perfect cards to fish for slam here?. Even if is it a possibility there is no way to find out if partner has the right queens you need.

[pclayton]

Double is leading the poll 2:1. As many of you can surmise, I tried 5♠ smacked by LHO. Mentally I estimated when I made this poll that double would beat 5♠ by at least 3:1, since doubling these high level contracts with a distributional hands with some defense is popular. Roger's hand from the LA regional is a good example. Decision over 5D

 

Pard put down xxx Axx Txxx xxx. Stiff ♥Q lead gave me 1050 when spades didn't break. Fortunately for the doublers, diamonds are 3-2, otherwise 5♣ is rolling.

 

I really don't know if what I did was that wise, however consider a few things.

 

1. The opponents are vulnerable. Do you really think you are getting this -2 very often? Frankly if you trust your opponents, I think -2 is less likely than =.

 

2. If the opponents are sane, pard has a maximum of two or three clubs on this auction. RHO has some extreme shape which includes five hearts and possibly 6. Therefore, pard either has some real spade support, or some undisclosed diamond length. It's too late to get to diamonds (please don't suggest pard is pulling a x to 5♦ on xx xxxx Jxxxx xx) unfortunately. Spade support is great news, but even diamond length mitigates my downside.

 

3. I figured at worse I'd be turning a +200 (if I doubled) into a -200 when I bid 5♠ (and got x'd). If either 5♣ was wrapping and /or 5♠ is, bidding on is a huge gain. Again, +500 against 5♣ just seems very remote to me with a hand this offensive.

 

4. It's entirely possible that the opponents will concede that 5♠ is making and take a dive at 6♣. Give yourself something like void, Axxxxx, xx, Kxxxx as East here. I would strongly consider 6♣ when pard can't double 5♠. Don't we frequently "bid one more" with freaks? Now doubling looks profitable.

 

I guess I'm not so glib about these situations and ready to concede "WDO, +200, lose 11". This is a real swing and I think its a bear of a decision.

 

Perhaps I haven't had enough of these go against me where I'm bearish on bidding.

[dcvetkov]

Nice hand, but Iam not sure if this proves anything. yes, it is usually wise to bid with distribution, even 5 over 5, hoping that 1 of the contracts makes

 

Ace of ♥ in dummy? What are the odds for that? Its much more likely that partner has , say queen of ♣, or nothing, then some very useful ace.

Opponents must bid on their good looks.

 

Proves what I know, anyway :P

[pclayton]

Nice hand, but Iam not sure if this proves anything. yes, it is usually wise to bid with distribution, even 5 over 5, hoping that 1 of the contracts makes

 

Ace of ♥ in dummy? What are the odds for that? Its much more likely that partner has , say queen of ♣, or nothing, then some very useful ace.

Opponents must bid on their good looks.

 

Proves what I know, anyway :P

Yes the ♥A was golden, but the ♠Q or even the ♦10 alone give me chances here.

[mikestar]

Much too good to overcall the first time.  Besides, you can handle any response from partner.

 

Have to double 5♣.  If we play in 5♣x, I would be surprised if they made it, but I have been surprised before.

True as far as it goes, but with the club void is it at all hard to imagine opponents bidding 5♣ to put you to a guess at the 5-level? I think the chance of missing slam is less likely than being outbid in clubs when you show strength by doubling. 4♠ puts the enemy on a guess where the cards are.

 

If they bid 5♣ over my ostensible preempt, I will double them. This will clue my partner in that I bid 4♠ to make, so he will have some useful data in deciding between 5♠ and pass. He will bid 6♠ on some perfectos that he wouldn't be sure about not knowing about my spade length: this will compensate for some of the time we won't get to a red suit when we should.

 

Consider also that responder may not bid 5♣ when his partner has not had a chance to show real clubs. Even if we have slam, 4♠ making 6 will outscore anything we can get defending clubs.

[cherdano]

3. I figured at worse I'd be turning a +200 (if I doubled) into a -200 when I bid 5♠ (and got x'd). If either 5♣ was wrapping and /or 5♠ is, bidding on is a huge gain. Again, +500 against 5♣ just seems very remote to me with a hand this offensive.

-200 instead of +200 is a 9 IMP loss. -200 instead of -600 is a 9 IMP gain, and +650 instead of -200 is a 10 IMP gain, so I am not sure what you are trying to say here.

 

In any case, I think the odds that I have to play hearts by myself when I bid 5♠ are too big (when partner doesn't have an entry). In that case bidding may turn +500 into -500.

[Guest Jlall]

1. The opponents are vulnerable. Do you really think you are getting this -2 very often? Frankly if you trust your opponents, I think -2 is less likely than =.

Phil you seem to always find the worst time to apply this. LHO is bidding as a save. He is likely just weak and shapely. There's no reason to think he will not go down 2. Red/red opponents can bid as a save with 5 clubs and a stiff and not much else!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Yes that's right, they can bid just as aggressively as white/white opponents!!!!!!!!!!! This rule is really only applicable in auctions where they are red/white and it would not even be that applicable in this auction since they just have a big fit and some shape. You really think that in this auction your LHO could not have bid 5C with a 5-5 near-yarborough and a spade void knowing you have 10+ spades and they have 11+ clubs? Come on. Even if he EXPECTS to go down 3 a fair amount of time it is a good bid (especially against you).

 

Please do not use this rule anymore to justify decisions to go to the 5 level because every time I have seen you use it on the forums it has been in a very silly context. If it was white/white you would double because the opps are non vulnerable lol?

[kenrexford]

Yeah, but they are vulnerable.

[ArtK78]

Much too good to overcall the first time.  Besides, you can handle any response from partner.

 

Have to double 5♣.  If we play in 5♣x, I would be surprised if they made it, but I have been surprised before.

True as far as it goes, but with the club void is it at all hard to imagine opponents bidding 5♣ to put you to a guess at the 5-level? I think the chance of missing slam is less likely than being outbid in clubs when you show strength by doubling. 4♠ puts the enemy on a guess where the cards are.

 

If they bid 5♣ over my ostensible preempt, I will double them. This will clue my partner in that I bid 4♠ to make, so he will have some useful data in deciding between 5♠ and pass. He will bid 6♠ on some perfectos that he wouldn't be sure about not knowing about my spade length: this will compensate for some of the time we won't get to a red suit when we should.

 

Consider also that responder may not bid 5♣ when his partner has not had a chance to show real clubs. Even if we have slam, 4♠ making 6 will outscore anything we can get defending clubs.

I really do not expect that my next opportunity to bid will be at the 5 level when I have a hand this good at both vul, even with the club void.

 

As for bidding 4♠ first and doubling 5♣ when that comes back to me, I think it gives an impression of a truly one-suited hand rather than the 3-suited hand that I have. A typical hand for 4♠ followed by double would be something like:

 

AKQTxxx

KQx

Ax

x

 

The message that I try to convey with this sequence is that I bid 4♠ to make, not that I have a penalty double of 5♣. Partner will understand that while my spades are very strong, they may not take too many tricks on defense against 5♣ and will act accordingly.

 

While the double followed by double sequence on the hand given in this thread will certainly not reveal my powerful spade suit, it is not the type of spade suit that I would intend to show by bidding 4♠ first and then doubling.