To the Batcave

[gnasher]

If 2=3=4=4 were a possibility, ace and a low diamond wouldn't work - they'd play back another diamond, setting up a fifth winner.

 

For the same reason. having ducked a diamond and won the return, you should cash the third spade before the third diamond. If East threw a club on this you'd still have to guess whether he was 2=3=4=4 or 2=3=3=5.

[gnasher]

Now the moment of glory, a club to the queen. If RHO did have ATxx, she was toast. She fired back a low club and I blew to the 10x. My play still has 3:2 odds.

I think it's 7:3 against.

[Winstonm]

Now the moment of glory, a club to the queen. If RHO did have ATxx, she was toast. She fired back a low club and I blew to the 10x. My play still has 3:2 odds.

I think it's 7:3 against.

You are missing something - can't say where. Let's assume the missing cards are these : A106543 and it is known that RHO holds the Ace.

 

Out of the possible doubletons, here are LHO's possible holdings:

65, 64, 63, 54, 53, 43

103, 104, 105, 106

 

As is plain, the odds are 6:4, or 3:2, that the doubleton is xx and not 10x.

 

Correct odds-on play is low to the Queen.

[kenrexford]

Note, also, that RHO rates to not have the A8x, as this equally deprives dummy of a second entry.  So, I would assume that LHO has 108, 108x, or 108xx (if Ax is possible for the 1♣ opening).

Why does LHO need to have the 8 of clubs? As long as he has the T we are golden. A club to the 9 now provides 3 club tricks to go with our 2 hearts/spades/diamonds to make 3 NT. I mean yes.. I could see LHO having it after the duck. However, there is no real need for him to have it to make our contract.

Whether he does or does not have the 8 is not particularly relevant to the line, perhaps. However, assume the start of the King. If RHO has the 8 and plays it, then I'm 100% positive he has A8 doubleton, or that he is falsecarding from A8x. So, I'm not going to "believe" the 8 from RHO. Sure, he should not have A8x. However, I think it to be more likely that he catches up and falsecards than that he was sleeping with A108.

 

The point, though, was that I suspect nonetheless that LHO does have these cards.

 

BTW -- was the 10x actually 108? Just curious...

[han]

It seems to me that gnasher's line (leading the king or jack, and then lead a club to the queen) loses against only 3 holdings (LHO with 43, 53 or 54) while low to the queen immediately loses against 4 (any 10-doubleton).

 

Gnasher came to the conclusion that his line was gibberish but I don't get it yet.

[Winstonm]

It seems to me that gnasher's line (leading the king or jack, and then lead a club to the queen) loses against only 3 holdings (LHO with 43, 53 or 54) while low to the queen immediately loses against 4 (any 10-doubleton).

 

Gnasher came to the conclusion that his line was gibberish but I don't get it yet.

I'll speak more slowly, this time.

 

Here

are

the

missing

cards.

:wacko:

 

A106543 and it is known that RHO holds the Ace.

 

Out of the possible doubletons, here are LHO's possible holdings:

65, 64, 63, 54, 53, 43 = 6

103, 104, 105, 106 = 4

 

6>4

 

4 sucks.

 

The end.

[pclayton]

Now the moment of glory, a club to the queen. If RHO did have ATxx, she was toast. She fired back a low club and I blew to the 10x. My play still has 3:2 odds.

I think it's 7:3 against.

Why? RHO is marked with the A, so there are 5 club spots, or which RHO has 3 and LHO 2. Thus 3:2.

[han]

It seems to me that gnasher's line (leading the king or jack, and then lead a club to the queen) loses against only 3 holdings (LHO with 43, 53 or 54) while low to the queen immediately loses against 4 (any 10-doubleton).

 

Gnasher came to the conclusion that his line was gibberish but I don't get it yet.

I'll speak more slowly, this time.

 

Here

are

the

missing

cards.

:wacko:

 

A106543 and it is known that RHO holds the Ace.

 

Out of the possible doubletons, here are LHO's possible holdings:

65, 64, 63, 54, 53, 43 = 6

103, 104, 105, 106 = 4

 

6>4

 

4 sucks.

 

The end.

What you need to do is read more slowly.

 

First of all, you are not missing A106543, you are missing A108543. This is relevant.

 

Second, I never disputed that Phil's line works in 6 out of 10 cases. That is correct. My point was that gnasher's line works in 7 out of 10 cases. That is more.

[Winstonm]

I hate it when Han is right and I am wrong. :wacko:

 

However, as I did not look closely enough at the spot cards, I have to admit that the 7 in dummy and the 6 in declarer's hand make the 8 a key card.

 

Therefore, Han and Gnasher are right and I am wrong.

 

And that REALLY sucks. :P

[gnasher]

Gnasher came to the conclusion that his line was gibberish but I don't get it yet.

The gibberish was my assertion that it would guarantee the contract. Winston wasn't the only one who was having trouble reading the club spots.

 

I seem to have followed it up with some more nonsense about the relative probabilities of success. I agree with the ratio of 7:6.

[kenrexford]

This mathematics debate is weird.

 

6:4? 7:6? 2:3? 6:4?

 

How about zero chance that RHO ducks the heart with the A10 of clubs? Is that so tricky?

 

Even if you think that random idiots might not think this through (get a different entry next time -- you are in the wrong event!!!), I would assume that some would. That screws with the math fairly substantially.

[Winstonm]

Ken, how about with these holdings? Wouldn't the heart duck be required?

 

East Q5, Axx, QJx, A10xxx

South: Axxx, K10, AK10x, K8x

[kenrexford]

Ken, how about with these holdings? Wouldn't the heart duck be required?

 

East Q5, Axx, QJx, A10xxx

South: Axxx, K10, AK10x, K8x

For that situation to be occurring (I'm assuming that South actually has Kxxx in spades), LHO must have:

 

♠J109xx ♥Jxx ♦xxx ♣Jx

 

This makes the small spade lead beyond bizarre.

 

Plus, Declarer would not pursue an impossible line in hearts lacking any entries, IMO. It looks to me like Opener would force the diamond split at trick three, cash the third spade, cash the heart King (which must be ducked lest a second entry be generated for a diamond hook), cash the club King (for the same reason), and then lead the heart 10, ducked all around. Six tricks so far in the bag, with a seventh if he just cashes the top diamond. However, Declarer can then exit clubs to throw his RHO in for a repeated diamond hook.

[gnasher]

This is the layout that Ken and Winston are talking about:

[hv=d=&v=&n=sa3hq9862d732cq97&w=sj109xxhjxxd9xxcjx&e=sq5haxxdqjxca10xxx&s=skxxxhk10dak10xck8x]399|300|[/hv]

Ken's suggestion is to win the second spade, lead a diamond to the J and A, and cash ♠K. So far, so good.

 

The next three tricks are ♥K ducked, ♣K ducked and ♥10 ducked, but I think East can afford to take any of these three tricks.

 

If he takes ♥K, his simplest defence is to play another heart (a diamond might be OK too, but it's a bit messy); if he ducks ♥K but takes ♣K, he has to play a club back; having ducked ♥K and ♣K, he can take ♥10 and exit with a diamond.

 

Edit: I've changed my mind about taking ♥K and playing another one. Declarer wins the 10 and plays diamonds from the top. East can unblock to avoid being endplayed, but declarer then plays a clubs to the nine.

Edited April 27, 2008 by gnasher

[Winstonm]

This is the layout that Ken and Winston are talking about:

[hv=d=&v=&n=sa3hq9862d732cq97&w=sj109xxhjxxd9xxcjx&e=sq5haxxdqjxca10xxx&s=skxxxhk10dak10xck8x]399|300|[/hv]

Ken's suggestion is to win the second spade, lead a diamond to the J and A, and cash ♠K. So far, so good.

 

The next three tricks are ♥K ducked, ♣K ducked and ♥10 ducked, but I think East can afford to take any of these three tricks.

 

If he takes ♥K, his simplest defence is to play another heart (a diamond might be OK too, but it's a bit messy); if he ducks ♥K but takes ♣K, he has to play a club back; having ducked ♥K and ♣K, he can take ♥10 and exit with a diamond.

gnasher,

 

The line of play I am considering is spade ducked and returned, then heart to King and theb the 10 won by East, who can only exit now with the diamond Q. Declarer wins and leads a low club to the 9 (or Q if West plays the Jack).

 

I could be wrong, here, but I believe you must duck the heart 10 to leave declarer trapped in hand and having to start the suits himself.

[kenrexford]

The main point is that this layout is almost impossible. Even if possible, it is to rare to concern yourself with when deciding whether to execute some sort of throw-in or to just place the club 10.

 

Plus, when Declarer does have this layout, he would be expected to go with the line I suggested. That gives RHO an expectation that he can win the second heart to exit a top diamond.

[gnasher]

The line of play I am considering is spade ducked and returned, then heart to King and theb the 10 won by East, who can only exit now with the diamond Q. Declarer wins and leads a low club to the 9 (or Q if West plays the Jack).

In that line, East wins ♣9 with 10 and exits with his remaining high diamond. Declarer has only eight tricks.

[Winstonm]

The line of play I am considering is spade ducked and returned, then heart to King and theb the 10 won by East, who can only exit now with the diamond Q.  Declarer wins and leads a low club to the 9 (or Q if West plays the Jack).

In that line, East wins ♣9 with 10 and exits with his remaining high diamond. Declarer has only eight tricks.

If so, I count 4 diamond tricks, 2 spades, 2 hearts, and 1 club for 9 tricks, while opps win 1 spade, 2 clubs, and 1 heart.

 

Am I missing something here?

[gnasher]

The main point is that this layout is almost impossible.  Even if possible, it is to rare to concern yourself with when deciding whether to execute some sort of throw-in or to just place the club 10.

 

Plus, when Declarer does have this layout, he would be expected to go with the line I suggested.  That gives RHO an expectation that he can win the second heart to exit a top diamond.

Does that mean that you won't be interested in a further examination of your suggested line?

 

Suppose that the defenders indulge declarer by allowing him to score ♥K, ♣K and ♥10. The position is now:

 

[hv=d=&v=&n=shq9d73cq9&w=sj10hjd9xcj&e=shadqxca10x&s=sxhdk10xc8x]399|300|[/hv]

 

Declarer can, as you say, "exit clubs to throw his RHO in for a repeated diamond hook". Regrettably, though, East has already taken one trick, and will take another four before giving declarer his diamond finesse.

[gnasher]

The line of play I am considering is spade ducked and returned, then heart to King and theb the 10 won by East, who can only exit now with the diamond Q.  Declarer wins and leads a low club to the 9 (or Q if West plays the Jack).

In that line, East wins ♣9 with 10 and exits with his remaining high diamond. Declarer has only eight tricks.

If so, I count 4 diamond tricks, 2 spades, 2 hearts, and 1 club for 9 tricks, while opps win 1 spade, 2 clubs, and 1 heart.

 

Am I missing something here?

Yes. You're missing an entry to cash the second heart trick.

[Winstonm]

The line of play I am considering is spade ducked and returned, then heart to King and theb the 10 won by East, who can only exit now with the diamond Q.   Declarer wins and leads a low club to the 9 (or Q if West plays the Jack).

In that line, East wins ♣9 with 10 and exits with his remaining high diamond. Declarer has only eight tricks.

If so, I count 4 diamond tricks, 2 spades, 2 hearts, and 1 club for 9 tricks, while opps win 1 spade, 2 clubs, and 1 heart.

 

Am I missing something here?

Yes. You're missing an entry to cash the second heart trick.

As Homer Simpson would say. D'oh!

[gnasher]

I think this works: win the second spade, diamond to the jack and king, ♥K ducked, and now ♥10.

 

If East takes and exits with a diamond, South wins, cashes the diamonds, and leads a club to the nine.

 

If East ducks ♥10, South plays diamonds from the top anyway. When East wins the third diamond, he is endplayed to give South two clubs tricks, to go with his two spades, two hearts and three diamonds.

[kenrexford]

Oh yeah. Forgot the contract was 3NT. Duh!

 

Still, this seems to be opener's line. The fact that it fails is immaterial.

 

Besides, this is a stupid layout to play for.