Matchpoint Decision

[rogerclee]

Matchpoints, All White, Second Seat

 

♠Ax ♥A987 ♦AQJTx ♣Ax

 

(P) - 1♦ - (2♥) - Dbl

(P) - ?

[ArtK78]

Pass.

 

I would rate the chances of getting +500 at over 60%. The other consideration is whether we have a slam. Could be, but partner might have made some call other than a negative double if we had a slam.

 

Another point in favor of a pass is that the most likely game on the hand - 3NT - could fail on many hands where we are not able to get +500. So, going plus may be sufficient.

[matmat]

Pass

[jdonn]

The reason I like pass is that I don't think we are usually finding slam even if its there, since I would otherwise have to rebid 3NT.

[mikeh]

Give partner KQxx x K10xx Kxxx, not a stretch to imagine this for a 2-level negative double and it isn't a small slam we are missing: I like our chances for 7♦, don't you? And we are surely not playing 3N when he holds this hand.

 

 

So I don't think it is as clear as josh and art seem to suggest. But their main point seems, to me, to be well-taken... slams are possible but relatively infrequent/tough to reach, while 500 is going to beat every other mp score we might obtain. And 500 doesn't need very much.. heck, 800 is probably as realistic as 300.. picture partner with KQxx 10x xxx KQxx and the diamond King in the lock... declarer's KQJ765 is scoring only 4 tricks.

 

Imps, I suspect you'd get a different view altogether since 3N rates to risk only a couple of imps in exchange for some big numbers when partner has a good hand with a diamond fit.

[jdonn]

So I don't think it is as clear as josh and art seem to suggest.

I don't think it's clear at all and never said I do :P It seems like a fairly difficult decision, I just know what I like in these situations.

 

Could this hand go opposite QJxxx QT xxxxx x in the other thread (I certainly don't think that's a negative double but I remember you do)? hmmmmm

[655321]

Pass, and for me this is clear, almost a WTP even.

 

(As usual, 'clear' does not mean 'will work 100% of the time') :P

[the hog]

3NT. For me this is a wtp?

[pclayton]

I'll pass. I think we are getting this 500 or 800 NV. Slam is possible but I don't see how we can sensibly investigate it.

[brianshark]

I like knocking doubled part-scores. It's one of my favourite things in Bridge.

[andy_h]

hmm tough. Good heart spots though.

[Apollo81]

I'd pass.

[ArtK78]

Give partner KQxx x K10xx Kxxx, not a stretch to imagine this for a 2-level negative double and it isn't a small slam we are missing: I like our chances for 7♦, don't you? And we are surely not playing 3N when he holds this hand.

 

 

So I don't think it is as clear as josh and art seem to suggest. But their main point seems, to me, to be well-taken... slams are possible but relatively infrequent/tough to reach, while 500 is going to beat every other mp score we might obtain. And 500 doesn't need very much.. heck, 800 is probably as realistic as 300.. picture partner with KQxx 10x xxx KQxx and the diamond King in the lock... declarer's KQJ765 is scoring only 4 tricks.

 

Imps, I suspect you'd get a different view altogether since 3N rates to risk only a couple of imps in exchange for some big numbers when partner has a good hand with a diamond fit.

Actually, Mike, I didn't say it was "clear." I just said that I think it is right.

 

This may be splitting hairs, but when a bridge player says an action is clear, it is almost like saying that any other action would be silly or stupid. I can certainly see players whose judgment I respect making a different choice than pass. But I think that pass is right.

 

And you are absolutely correct that IMPs is an entirely different story. I once made a penalty pass in a similar situation at IMPs holding AQTx of the trump suit. They made it with an overtrick. Of course, they didn't have a 2 bid. At the other table the overcall was at the three level, negative double, all pass, making. So we had the very odd loss of -870 opposite +730.

[dcvetkov]

I will pass, but I dont think it is wtp.

 

Actually, I like my slam chances, if partner has only 4 spades, and singleton ♥, these two hands will fit very well, add just 2 kings and 12 tricks are there. Butagree there is no sensible way to investigate,,,,, and he could have a doubleton honour in hearts, in which case defending wins big time. I would like to have better H spots in front of declarer, but he is unlikely to have any entry to dummy;)

 

On a side note, its is not impossible 3Nt to fail, if declarer has good heart suit and entry in diamond K♦