balancing seat?

[jillybean]

I don't understand, isn't game making easily on any lead?

 

What don't you understand?

 

And why did east pass the opening bid?

 

No idea

[Winstonm]

Lead, partner.

[the hog]

Double. Would pass if the Ds and the S were swopped.

Ok I'll bite. I don't understand this reasoning at all :)

I was being facetious. Perhaps I should have included a ;)

[jdonn]

Double. Would pass if the Ds and the S were swopped.

Ok I'll bite. I don't understand this reasoning at all :)

I was being facetious. Perhaps I should have included a ;)

Wow I really thought you meant it. Talk about subtle facetiousness!

[Vilgan]

Why all these votes for double? Aren't partner's chances for having 5 spades practically nil given no 1♠overcall?? I'll take the 8+ card fit over a 7 card fit anyday thankyou very much....

 

As for partner's bid to 3NT - if he/she followed the rule of subtracting 3 points when responding to a balancing bid, 2NT was the right bid (though 3NT is reasonable given the upgrading of the heart honors).

Huh? playing 4/3 major suit fits is like the bomb at matchpoints. Also partner can respond one level lower. 2♣ is too committal on such a wretched suit (imo).

[effervesce]

Why all these votes for double? Aren't partner's chances for having 5 spades practically nil given no 1♠overcall?? I'll take the 8+ card fit over a 7 card fit anyday thankyou very much....

 

As for partner's bid to 3NT - if he/she followed the rule of subtracting 3 points when responding to a balancing bid, 2NT was the right bid (though 3NT is reasonable given the upgrading of the heart honors).

Huh? playing 4/3 major suit fits is like the bomb at matchpoints. Also partner can respond one level lower. 2♣ is too committal on such a wretched suit (imo).

The hand was given for IMPs. 1 level higher for 1-2 more trumps is more than worth it.

[jdonn]

Why all these votes for double? Aren't partner's chances for having 5 spades practically nil given no 1♠overcall?? I'll take the 8+ card fit over a 7 card fit anyday thankyou very much....

 

As for partner's bid to 3NT - if he/she followed the rule of subtracting 3 points when responding to a balancing bid, 2NT was the right bid (though 3NT is reasonable given the upgrading of the heart honors).

Huh? playing 4/3 major suit fits is like the bomb at matchpoints. Also partner can respond one level lower. 2♣ is too committal on such a wretched suit (imo).

The hand was given for IMPs. 1 level higher for 1-2 more trumps is more than worth it.

If partner has a singleton club, or if he wanted to bid 1NT, so much for your having 1 or 2 more trumps...

[effervesce]

Why all these votes for double? Aren't partner's chances for having 5 spades practically nil given no 1♠overcall?? I'll take the 8+ card fit over a 7 card fit anyday thankyou very much....

 

As for partner's bid to 3NT - if he/she followed the rule of subtracting 3 points when responding to a balancing bid, 2NT was the right bid (though 3NT is reasonable given the upgrading of the heart honors).

Huh? playing 4/3 major suit fits is like the bomb at matchpoints. Also partner can respond one level lower. 2♣ is too committal on such a wretched suit (imo).

The hand was given for IMPs. 1 level higher for 1-2 more trumps is more than worth it.

If partner has a singleton club, or if he wanted to bid 1NT, so much for your having 1 or 2 more trumps...

Heck, while we're at it why dont we include hands where partner responds 1♠ to your double on a 3-4-3-3 without a heart stopper or 2♦ on 3-3-4-3...

 

You can't have everything - some bids gain on some hands and others on others. IMO on the balance 2♣ should work better. Also, it puts more pressure on LHO - if he/she is going to bid, they may have to bid now or forever hold their peace. After a X, they can await developments.

 

I think the best way to conclude this is to run a monte-carlo simulation - how many cards of each suit is partner most likely to have, given the constraints of 0-4 spades?

[andy_h]

Either pass or X. I would go for X as good things might happen and is certainly much more flexible than 2C. We could even belong in diamonds AFAIC.

[effervesce]

Either pass or X. I would go for X as good things might happen and is certainly much more flexible than 2C. We could even belong in diamonds AFAIC.

Sure- but if you do belong in diamonds, isn't it likely partner will bid 2♦ with 5 of them and a singleton club, and quite often with a doubleton club?

[andy_h]

Either pass or X. I would go for X as good things might happen and is certainly much more flexible than 2C. We could even belong in diamonds AFAIC.

Sure- but if you do belong in diamonds, isn't it likely partner will bid 2♦ with 5 of them and a singleton club, and quite often with a doubleton club?

Why would partner ignore the fact that we bid 2C? He obviously knows we most often would have 6+C given the fact that we didn't X. And if he has 5D's and a doubleton club, can't I use the same argument that if he decides to bid 2D over 2C, he will hit partner with a singleton diamond?

The keyword for X'ing is flexibility. Now once in a blue moon partner may even...pass our X! Not that it's the strong factor for X'ing, but 2C on Q8xxx and not catering for other strains (when we have shortage in the opponent's suit) is not my style.

[jdonn]

Either pass or X. I would go for X as good things might happen and is certainly much more flexible than 2C. We could even belong in diamonds AFAIC.

Sure- but if you do belong in diamonds, isn't it likely partner will bid 2♦ with 5 of them and a singleton club, and quite often with a doubleton club?

Clubs may be more likely where we belong than diamonds, or spades, or notrump, or 1♥X....but it's WAY less likely than the combination of those. Nor do you particularly want a club lead if they play. Nor are you able to stand being doubled. You are really fighting hard for something that isn't a close decision.

[cherdano]

Either pass or X. I would go for X as good things might happen and is certainly much more flexible than 2C. We could even belong in diamonds AFAIC.

Sure- but if you do belong in diamonds, isn't it likely partner will bid 2♦ with 5 of them and a singleton club, and quite often with a doubleton club?

No, he would not.

It is really not close between 2♣ and double, this would be an unanimous vote in an expert panel.

[effervesce]

From a back-of-the-envelope calculation (performed purely from spaces probability using pen, paper and calculator) partner rates to have on average around

 

3.824 spades

2.294 hearts

3.824 diamonds

3.059 clubs

 

(this was done without restricting partner to a maximum of 4 spades or restricting partner to not having a takeout double, both of which rate to reduce the number of spades partner has - similarly this should increase partner's number of hearts. Ie, this calculation is should reproduce the average of the remaining cards randomly distributed to the 3 players in a monte-carlo simulation).

 

The actual figures run from a simulation taking into account hands without a takeout X or 1♠ overcall I'd imagine would be roughly

 

3.25 spades

3 hearts

3.75 diamonds

3 clubs

 

Thus it appears to me that the main benefit of X'ing is being able to play in 1NT.

The main disadvantage is playing in diamonds in a 7 card fit when you have a 8 card club fit. Or playing in NT when clubs are better.

 

 

Let us work out the actual probabilities of the number of clubs partner has.

There are 34 remaining unknown cards, as you know 13 from your own hand and 5 from the 1♥ bidder. Thus, the sample space is 34C13 for the number of hands partner can hold, or 927983760. The number of hands where he has 0 clubs is 8C0*34C26 = 18156204.

Thus

p(0 clubs) = 0.02

Similarly p(1 club) = 0.08

p(2 clubs) = 0.23

p(3 clubs) = 0.32

p(4 clubs) = 0.24

p(5 clubs) = 0.09

 

p(3 or more clubs) = 0.66

 

Thus you have a 66% chance of having at least an 8 card fit in clubs.

[Winstonm]

I think this entire problem is moot - only one person it seems noticed the queer pass by east. I am noticing the queer pass by north.

 

In a real game, the auction, had north passed, would have been p-p-1H-P-1S

 

and the balancing question would be for north, after failing to overcall 1NT.

[the hog]

I think this entire problem is moot - only one person it seems noticed the queer pass by east. I am noticing the queer pass by north.

 

In a real game, the auction, had north passed, would have been p-p-1H-P-1S

 

and the balancing question would be for north, after failing to overcall 1NT.

Well Winston the most likely reason for Nth's failure to overcall 1NT is that this hand is not a 1NT overcall. Certainly not in my book anyway.

[Codo]

Somehow some postersdhad forgotten that this is the BIL Forum.

I doubt that it is winning bridge for beginners to upgrate the north had to 1 NT.

 

So the basic question is:

You have to reopen and you have a lousy suit but no classic take out double either.

 

What do you do?

 

1. Pass, which obviously won't fail for a number, but will often miss a partscore swing or even a game.

 

2. Bid your suit, which may lose some better fits, 1 NT or 1 ♥ doubled, but get your best (well longest) suit into the picture.

 

3. Double which may give you some ridicoulus results if you reach the wrong partial but brings all suits into play including the possibility of 1 NT and 1 ♥ doubled.

 

Maybe I missed something but so far there had been many strong opinions but few reasons.

 

If effervesce is right with his simulation, 2 Club will bring us to our best fit most of the time, so maybe this should be the bid a beginner should choose.

 

Of course if you agree that you need a 6 card suit for a reopening in a suit like Andy H or something like Akxxx like Cherdano, then you must double.

 

But I doubt that so stringent rules will be of much sense for beginners who hate to defend doubled low level contracts or playing in their 4-3 fits.

[cherdano]

Who said I need a AKxxx suit?

Effervesce's simulation doesn't prove anything. Well all know that on average, the best fit is in clubs. However, the question is whether on average you will reach a better fit by doubling (and partner choosing his best option among 1S, 1N, 2C and 2D) or by bidding 2♣.

[effervesce]

On a related note, today (about 30 mins ago actually) I had

 

[hv=d=e&v=e&s=s97hat3dk54cajt72]133|100|Scoring: IMP[/hv]

 

The bidding was 1♠, two passes to you.

 

What do you do?

[han]

Somehow some posters had forgotten that this is the BIL Forum.

I doubt that it is winning bridge for beginners to upgrade the north hand to 1 NT.

Will you stop it! Winning bridge for beginners is to learn to play like the people who win. I disagree with 1NT as well but it can't hurt to see a discussion about this.

 

Please also edit your post so that it matches what I quoted.

[neilkaz]

On a related note, today (about 30 mins ago actually) I had

 

Dealer: East Vul: E/W Scoring: IMP

♠ 97 ♥ AT3 ♦ K54 ♣ AJT72

 

The bidding was 1♠, two passes to you.

 

What do you do?

Put me into the 2♣ column here with a decent 5 card suit. Perhaps we belong in a red suit, but we are often outbid in ♠ anyhow and I want to get my clearly best suit into the picture before opener rebids 2♠ and incase PD has decent support and we can compete to 3♣. Off course if PD was just short of an overcall he'll like my hand and I can raise his red suit and will raise 2NT to 3 expecting him to have 13 or 14 HCP