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Your call


awm

What's your choice?  

43 members have voted

  1. 1. What's your choice?

    • Pass
      26
    • Stayman; rebid 2NT if no spade fit
      16
    • Force game
      1


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If I invite with random 8-counts I must also invite with this one I think. But maybe I shouldn't do that either. I was surprised to see in my analysis of the GIB database that 3NT with 25 points combined has slightly less than 50% chance of making. My feeling is that it's better than that. I wonder if my feelings are wrong or if DD results are unrealistic (shouldn't have much bias for 3N contracts) or if it's because I play in weak fields and declaring is easier than defending.
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If I invite with random 8-counts I must also invite with this one I think. But maybe I shouldn't do that either. I was surprised to see in my analysis of the GIB database that 3NT with 25 points combined has slightly less than 50% chance of making. My feeling is that it's better than that. I wonder if my feelings are wrong or if DD results are unrealistic (shouldn't have much bias for 3N contracts) or if it's because I play in weak fields and declaring is easier than defending.

I think declarer has a biiig advantage in 3NT contracts.

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Pass.

 

We might have a spade fit and we might not. If we missed 4, sorry pard.

 

If you think this has the values for an quantitative invite, I would strongly disagree. We might have 3N opposite a perfecto max, but there are many, many more 16s where 3N is hopeless and down a bundle.

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Out of 10..Pass=6 Invite=4 to me.

 

If I Stayman and PD bids a lead becomes really likely and that could be bad and my hand may not be quick to enter without losing the lead again or more than once in NT.

 

If I Stayman and PD bids 2 and declines the invite, maybe 8 tricks is the limit and we are off 1.

 

I'll pass and give up on a decent number of games where PD is max and either fits or my C's mean that we make 3NT as I just think we are a tad too weak to invite.

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Very close call. I would probably pass when white, Stayman when red. Very close.

I am as happy to invite white as red. It's not like this is a making or down 1 hand if we get to 3NT, it could easily be down more which changes the odds on bidding vul games.

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