Ant590 Posted April 13, 2008 Report Share Posted April 13, 2008 You hold ♠ xxx♥ AKQxxx♦ KQx♣ J Partner opens 3NT first seat white/white, MPs. 3NT - pass - ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdonn Posted April 13, 2008 Report Share Posted April 13, 2008 4♣, I'm not that optimistic. I would specifically need short spades to make anything more, really. 4♥ would not be pretty if they switch to a club before losing the lead. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cherdano Posted April 13, 2008 Report Share Posted April 13, 2008 4♥, I only lose to 4♣ if 4♥ is down and 4♣ makes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kenrexford Posted April 14, 2008 Report Share Posted April 14, 2008 4♥, I only lose to 4♣ if 4♥ is down and 4♣ makes. That's not exactly true. I think 4♥-2 is worse than 4♣-1 at MP, but maybe the scoring changed somewhere... 4♣ for me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Free Posted April 14, 2008 Report Share Posted April 14, 2008 If p can have a void, I'd start with 4♦ asking his shortness. Otherwise 4♥. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fluffy Posted April 14, 2008 Report Share Posted April 14, 2008 4♣ I give up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
P_Marlowe Posted April 14, 2008 Report Share Posted April 14, 2008 Hi, I would go with 4H. With kind regardsMarlowe Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whereagles Posted April 14, 2008 Report Share Posted April 14, 2008 I'm in a bit of a simulation addiction, so I'll go with a "simulate first, ask questions later" approach. After 24678 hands we get average suit lengths spades: 1.82041hearts: 1.67899diamonds: 2.17761clubs: 7.323hcp: 9.88553 Seems like pard is favourite to have 2 hearts, a stray jack and doubleton spade. These are the conditions for a FOUR HEARTS bid, which is something I would probably never do without the simulation. Of course, if pard is justin, who is known for SOLID gambling bids, we'll have 8 clubs, in which case the results after 6968 hands are spades: 1.5508hearts: 1.44403diamonds: 1.85491clubs: 8.15026hcp: 9.78875 pointing at a 5♣ contract. KEWL. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdonn Posted April 14, 2008 Report Share Posted April 14, 2008 I'm in a bit of a simulation addiction, so I'll go with a "simulate first, ask questions later" approach. After 24678 hands we get average suit lengths spades: 1.82041hearts: 1.67899diamonds: 2.17761clubs: 7.323hcp: 9.88553 Seems like pard is favourite to have 2 hearts, a stray jack and doubleton spade. These are the conditions for a FOUR HEARTS bid, which is something I would probably never do without the simulation. Of course, if pard is justin, who is known for SOLID gambling bids, we'll have 8 clubs, in which case the results after 6968 hands are spades: 1.5508hearts: 1.44403diamonds: 1.85491clubs: 8.15026hcp: 9.78875 pointing at a 5♣ contract. KEWL. If you don't mind, what were the exact amount of hands where he had each amount of hearts? Good point by the way that his expected diamond length is greater than spade length, due to our diamond honors (he can't have spade honors so there are more diamonds out he can have.) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whereagles Posted April 14, 2008 Report Share Posted April 14, 2008 If you don't mind, what were the exact amount of hands where he had each amount of hearts? I had to rerun simulation, so slight changes expected. Outcome is spades: 1.81793hearts: 1.69076diamonds: 2.17485clubs: 7.31645pard has 0 hearts: 0.100569 <-- reads: 10.0569%, same for belowpard has 1 hearts: 0.338168pard has 2 hearts: 0.366856pard has 3 hearts: 0.161191pard has 4 hearts: 0.0307717pard has 5 hearts: 0.00244411pard has heart jack: 0.206226Generated 10000000 handsProduced 24958 hands For the picky guys: assumptions are pard has ♣AKQ 7th, 8th or 9th and at most 11 hcp (side queen possible, no further restrictions on shape). I did NOT bother to take out of the simulation stuff like 75s or 76s. Sue me :P Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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