bad luck or bad lead?

[Apollo81]

[hv=d=w&v=e&n=sxxhakqjxxxdxcxxx&w=skjxxhtdakxxcajtx&e=saqtxxhxdxxxxxckx&s=sxxhxxxxdqjtcqxxx]399|300|Scoring: IMP[/hv]

 

Auction:

 

(1♦)-1♥-(1♠)-3♥

(4♥)-5♥-(6♦)-pass

(6♠)-all pass

 

Lead: small club.

 

North says bad lead, duh. South says bad luck, what if East had AQxxx Ax xxx xxx instead? what if West had 5-3 minors and East had AQxxx Ax xxxx xx? NS are playing intermediate jump overcalls so (1♦)-2♥ would not have been an option for North in these cases.

[cherdano]

I think the lead was reasonable.

 

Meanwhile, I would have bid 4♥ with the North hand right away.

[Guest Jlall]

I don't like this lead but I see what they were thinking.

[awm]

I think north's bidding is rather strange here. Why bid 1♥ on a hand that is totally offensively oriented like this? I'm not sure what your requirements are for an IJO if seven solid doesn't qualify, but in this case I'd bid four hearts. It seems like 1♥ followed by 5♥ is more consistent with long but not so great hearts and a side card -- here bidding 1♥ is more appealing in case of a misfit and because there is some side defense.

 

The layout is also quite unlucky -- both opponents have singleton heart (either could have a void).

[Apollo81]

Lets say North had bid 4♥ rather than 1. Is South now supposed to lead a heart? What if North had ♥KQJxxxx ♣Kxx ? How can North say "lead a heart"

[ArtK78]

Lets say North had bid 4♥ rather than 1. Is South now supposed to lead a heart? What if North had ♥KQJxxxx ♣Kxx ? How can North say "lead a heart"

Pass?

[awm]

I suggest that a preemptive overcall will not usually contain high card controls outside the suit. This is not to say that a preempt can never contain such controls, but that the odds do not favor it. If you need preempter to take a trick in order to set a contract, your best bet is that he has the ace of his suit.

 

On the other hand, a one-level overcall will often contain some defense outside the bid suit. This is especially true when the one-level overcall contains a longer-than-normal suit, since without such outside defense it would be clear to preempt.

 

So to the extent that any bid suggests/denies a lead, I would think that a direct preempt suggests leading the bid suit (if you need any help from preempter to set) whereas a one-level overcall followed by rebidding the suit suggests leading something else.

 

Another way to look at this, is to consider some possible hands for partner. He could have:

 

(1) A very strong suit, nothing else. Obvious to preempt. You need to lead his suit.

(2) A moderately strong suit, something on the side. Probably a preempt. It's kind of a guess what to lead, either partner's suit or something else could be right.

(3) A fairly weak suit, something on the side. Probably a one-level overcall, but might rebid the overcall suit if partner shows a fit. You need to try to hit the side card on the lead.

(4) A fairly weak suit, nothing on the side. It doesn't matter what you lead, you're not setting.

 

So if partner overcalls at the one-level and rebids his suit, you lead something else. If partner preempts, it certainly might be right to lead some side suit, but leading partner's suit is probably percentage (he is more likely to hold ace of his suit than a random side ace or king).