Decision time

[rfedrick]

[hv=d=e&v=b&n=sxhajxxxxdkxcxxxx&s=saqxhkxdaq10xxcjxx]133|200|Scoring: IMP[/hv]

 

The bidding (RHO deals):

(1♠)-1NT-(2♠)-3♦

(P)-3NT-all pass

 

3D showed 5+ hearts, inv+.

 

The spade J is led, ducked to your Queen. Please assume for the moment (feel free to mention your preferred line too, of course) that you choose to cash two top hearts, and if nothing good happens to rely on the diamond suit.

 

RHO pitches a spade on the second Heart. The diamond K and another diamond from table draw three small cards from E-W. How do you play the diamond suit and why? (EW are playing wk NT, 4cd M).

[matmat]

now i play for the drop. I would have finessed the hearts

[pclayton]

Finessing the heart looks pretty obvious to me too.

[gnasher]

I think you should have taken the heart finesse. If it loses, for them to be able to cash four clubs, LHO must have either ♣Hx, which leaves him without an opening bid, or four clubs, in which case the diamonds probably aren't coming in either.

 

From were we are now, it's very close, but I play for the drop. The spades are probably 4=5, which leaves RHO with two more minor suit cards than LHO. However, we know that RHO probably has three club honours to LHO's zero, so RHO has less room for diamonds than LHO.

 

Edit: I should ask them what they open with a 4=1=4=4 minimum. If they're allowed to open 1♠ with this, it would make RHO's raise more understandable, so I would finesse the diamond after all.

Edited April 5, 2008 by gnasher

[rfedrick]

Maybe i'm missing something, but i don't see that an immediate heart finesse is "obvious". If it loses (not unlikely given the opening bid on your right) the defence may be able to cash 4 clubs and you've just gone off in a cold one. There must be at least some argument for trying to combine your chances in the red suits.

 

(Cashing 3 top diamonds and THEN taking the H finesse is possible, but i believe it to be inferior to testing the hearts first - but i am open to persusasion).

 

Anyway, even if you take an immediate H finesse, LHO shows up with Q10xx so you have to get diamonds right (unless you plan to give up a H and play for 3-3 clubs, which would be a big position), just as in the version of the problem i posed originally.

 

I (naturally) got the diamonds wrong. It's been gnawing at me ever since (a lot turned out to ride on this decision). I'm interested to know what people think is the right theoretical play.

[jdonn]

(Cashing 3 top diamonds and THEN taking the H finesse is possible, but i believe it to be inferior to testing the hearts first - but i am open to persusasion).

Well you think ahead about what you will do if you cash 2 hearts and rho shows out. If you intend to play for the drop in diamonds should that happen, you might as well have tried the diamonds first to leave the heart finesse in reserve. But if you intend to finesse the diamond should hearts be 4-1 then your belief is correct.

 

Anyway, even if you take an immediate H finesse, LHO shows up with Q10xx so you have to get diamonds right (unless you plan to give up a H and play for 3-3 clubs, which would be a big position), just as in the version of the problem i posed originally.

Not only clubs 3-3. Any two of A K Q T of clubs doubleton in one hand. Or singleton any-of-those-cards. Or misdefense.

 

Actually, I think there is a very good case for finessing the jack of hearts at trick 2. You give up on the slight chance of singleton queen on the right in order to make them think hearts aren't running. They don't know about your good diamond suit or your club weakness, and are very likely to continue spades if the heart finesse loses. In fact the more I think about it the more I like doing that, at least vs random defenders who I don't think are amazing.

 

Edit: I could swear when I looked at the hand earlier dummy had 9xxx of clubs, but hopefully I didn't just imagine it. Maybe my mind is playing tricks on me since I once had a bad experience with 9xxx opposite Jxx. Anyway much of what I said about the chances of them running clubs was dependant on that.