Trust percentages or opponents?

[inquiry]

[hv=d=n&v=b&n=sk542hqt9854dajc6&s=saq73hadkq976ca53]133|200|Scoring: IMP

1♥! 2♦

2♥ -2♠

3♠ -4NT

5♥ -7♠[/hv]

 

Trick

1. ♣K-6-2-A (UDCA carding by opponents)
   
2. ♣3-T-♠2-♣4
   
3. ♥4-2-A-6
   
4. ♣5-Q-♠4-♣8
   
5. ♠K-9-3-6
   
6. ♠5-8-A-T
   
7. ♠Q-♥J-♥5-♠J
   

Easy yes? With diamonds 4-2 or 3-3 now it rolls, just unblock diamonds and ruff a heart and claim (option one).

 

However, does the sequence of plays by the opponents alter you line of play? Does the nature of EW players affect your decision. If West is a solid player with no imagination? If west is a total beginner? If West is a wizard who do everything to cloudy the picture. Finally, if you know absoultely nothing about West.

[dicklont]

This nasty West player probably made me do the wrong thing: a ruffing finesse against East.

[Guest Jlall]

Playing for diamonds to come in is just way too probable to be deflected imo. If they are bad enough where they might have pitched their stiff J of hearts away then maybe they pitched from KJ tight as well. If you're playing against someone good they obv have KJx for this, and if you're playing against someone "solid with no imagination" I don't think this pitch is possible. You would need some huge read to not go for diamonds which picks up everything but Txxxx

[inquiry]

Playing for diamonds to come in is just way too probable to be deflected imo. If they are bad enough where they might have pitched their stiff J of hearts away then maybe they pitched from KJ tight as well. If you're playing against someone good they obv have KJx for this, and if you're playing against someone "solid with no imagination" I don't think this pitch is possible. You would need some huge read to not go for diamonds which picks up everything but Txxxx

This is true... but lets stop a minute and look at clubs too...

 

West leads K and then plays TQ on next two rounds. RHO encouraged clubs. Could be gamesmanship or could be three clubs.

 

West had two trumps 100%

 

West played 6 of hearts on first round then JACK.. of course he could easily have KJ76... but a lot of people will never have KJ76. We know he can not have J6 doubleton and only 3Clubs because EAST would use lightner double with a diamond void (west 2-2-6-3).

 

The question is did WEST paint a picture of 2-3-5-3? A beginner would not pitch a heart from KJ and that holding, he would have long ago forgot about your 2♦ bid showing a five card suit... and he would throw a ♦. So what we have is WEST being cute from some normal hand, say 2-4-2-4 or 2-5-3-3 (with KJx(x) it can not hurt to play discard the jack). But can WEST have?

♠xx

♥KJx

♦Txxxx

♣KQT

 

This is the "picture" of the hand he painted. I think i agree with justin just play for 3-3 or 4-2 diamonds, west might have kept a small club (after the attitude signal) or discarded jack from several holdings with small hearts available. I would hate to be jobbed out of a grand. However, at the table, one pair in very nice gold star match reached 7♠ after north opened, the other 4♠ after north passed. West actually held the shown hand above, and was squeezed on the third round of trumps. All his cards were honest. The declarer after going down thought he should have gotten it right. I am not so sure, which is what I posted this to get some opinions.